Supreme Novices Hurdle Tips & Predictions

The Supreme Novices' Hurdle is the opening race of the Cheltenham Festival. It is a Grade 1 National Hunt hurdle race for novices aged four years and above. The distance is two miles and half a furlong, with eight hurdles to be jumped. It is one of the most popular races at Cheltenham and is seen as a true test for young horses.

Supreme Novices Hurdle Betting Odds

The best way to get your festival off to a flying start is by getting your research in order. Getting the most transparent picture of your Supreme Novices' Hurdle betting strategy will give you the best chance of profit-making.

1.30 - Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m)

The Supreme has a much more open feel to it with Ballyburn bypassing the race for the Gallagher on Wednesday. Willie Mullins holds a strong hand headed by Mystical Power and Tullyhill, but perhaps MISTERGIF is the one to be with from his team.

He looked an outstanding talent on his stable debut at Limerick in a performance that stood out on the clock, seeming as if he could have gone round again. Of the non-Mullins challenge, Firefox has to be of interest based on his defeat of Ballyburn after failing to stay 2m4f last time.

Selection: Mistergif

Understanding the Supreme Novices' Hurdle

The Supreme Novices' Hurdle has been run yearly at Cheltenham since 1946. The National Hunt Committee created the race to give novices a chance to compete for their first big win. Limited initially to five-year-olds only, it was later opened to allow six-year-olds as well. The prize money for the race has increased significantly over time, and in 2023 it stands at £135,000.

One of the most notable elements of this race is the famous Cheltenham Roar, which greets runners and riders to the first event of the festival.

Top Supreme Novices' Contenders

At the time of writing, four horses are fighting it out at the top of the market in Ballyburn (4/5), Mystical Power (9/2), Tullyhill (9/2), and Firefox (6/1).

All eyes are on the market principal, Ballyburn, the Mullins horse who has landed five wins in his first six events, including a grade 1 Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown last time out.

The horse has one defeat to it's name when it finishes second at Fairyhouse in December as a mistake 2 out allowed Firefox to outpace the Mullins horse. However, a fairly abysmal run at Naas has led to Firefox falling further down the odds.

The horse that has taught our eye is another Mullins runner, Mystical Power, who sits second in the running and is currently unbeaten, winning it's last two runnings by seven lengths. However, it has to be said that the five year old hasn't been properly challenged yet and that could lead to Mullins taking the horse to a different course on Cheltenham week.

Supreme Novices Hurdle Betting Tips

How are you getting your money on the Supreme Novices? There are plenty of betting opportunities available, including:

Win Bet

A Win Bet is a bet on the horse that will finish first in a race

Each Way Bet

An each way bet is a combination bet that consists of two parts: a win bet and a place bet. The win part of the bet means that your selection must win for you to receive any returns, while the place part of the bet will pay out if your selection finishes either first, second, or third (depending on the number of runners in the race).

Place Bet

You are betting on the horse to finish in the places, which means any winnings will only amount to the odds of it ending in the top three (or more, depending on offer or field size). If the horse wins, you will not receive the winning odds.

Strategies for Betting on the Supreme Novices' Hurdle

There are plenty of methods that you can explore to have the best chance of returning a winner in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. They include:

Assessing the Form of the Horses

Look at your selection's previous races and note how they performed in each one. It may also be helpful to look at the jockey's history with that particular horse or other horses that the same jockey has ridden in past races. This will indicate how well the horse has responded to the jockey and their instructions.

Identifying Value Bets

When considering whether a particular horse represents value in the betting market, it is essential to remember that there is no one-size-fits-all approach. A broad research strategy is crucial to ensuring you are getting the best possible value for your bet.

Bankroll Management

Finally, profiting from betting on the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and other races at Cheltenham is likelier if you set deposit and loss limits ahead of the festival.

Factors to Consider When Placing a Bet

While betting on a horse, you are also wagering on the circumstances around a race. Some examples of other influences on a race include:

Ground Conditions

It is essential to consider a horse's ground preference when looking at its chances in a race, as it can have a massive impact on performance. Soft ground increases the difficulty level for horses and is more suitable for horses bred for stamina. Conversely, firm or hard ground may be a more suitable surface for speedsters, especially those with a flat racing background.

Weight Carried by the Horse

The amount of weight a horse depends on the handicap, which is calculated based on the number of races it has won, how quickly it ran those races, and how much weight it was carrying during each race. If you are aware of a horse's handicap, it can help you make an informed decision about which horse to bet on.

Jockey's Riding Style

Try to understand whether your selection is a stamina stalwart best produced late down the straight or a restless sort that likes to lead from the front. By examining your horse's preferences, you can get a clearer picture on whether the jockey booked for riding is a positive or negative sign.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Betting Trends and Statistics

  • 15 of the previous 17 winners had won a race coming into this race.
  • Only four of the previous 16 renewals of this race were won by the favourite.
  • This has been a race that the Irish or French-bred horses have thrived, with 15 of the last 17 winners originating from a stable in one of those countries.

Remember, statistics don't tell the whole story, but they can help you paint a picture when selecting your bet!

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Final Tip

To clarify, do your research before placing your final bets! Fail to prepare and prepare to fail is a phrase that works in all walks of life, but none more so than horse racing!

Our ante post tip for the race is Mystical Power, if Mullins decides to race this horse at the Supreme Novices' Hurdle we can see it putting in a fantastic run. If Mystical Power isn't to run, then we could see a French winner with Jeriko Du Reponet making it four wins in a row.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle FAQs

When is the Supreme Novices' Hurdle?

The Supreme Novices' Hurdle takes place at 1.30 pm on Tuesday 12th, March – it is the opening race of the festival.

Who is the Favourite to Win the 2024 Renewal?

The current favourite to win the Supreme Novices' Hurdle is Ballyburn, trained by Willie Mullins.

Who Won the 2023 Renewal of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle?

The 2023 champion of this race was Marine Nationale, who is the hotly tipped favourite for the Arkle Novices' Chase.

What is the Distance of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle?

The action could condense over a relatively short 2 mile ½ furlong distance.

Who is the Most Successful Trainer in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle?

Willie Mullins is the most successful trainer in this race, with six winners over the previous 20 renewals – Ebaziyan (2007), Champagne Fever (2013), Vautour (2014), Douvan (2015), Klassical Dream (2019) & Appreciate It (2021).

Take Time to Think | | 18+

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