The Masters Betting Tips
Rob Cobley’s Masters Betting Tips
The market in November took quite some time to come together with the added variables of the cold and the softer conditions leaning punters more towards the more prominent players like Dustin Johnson and Bryson Dechambeau. It settled earlier this time, although it has been changed by recent events such as Jordan Spieth's win in Texas last week, Rahm's possible withdrawal (he is now confirmed to play), and Dustin's absence from several high profile events.
None of those has changed my thinking on what is likely to happen this week. Augusta will play like it has every year up until the 2019 Masters. Big hitters are favoured, a good short game is a huge advantage, and the players will still need to negotiate the fast, slopey greens that will be far quicker than six months ago.
Dustin Johnson (8/1) is the unsurprising favourite, having won so convincingly in November, and because he has been outside the top 5 on just one of his last six visits to Augusta. We all know that DJ's game revolves around power, but his finesse and superb short game don't get as much recognition as they should. He is the ideal course fit and, despite some recent absences and average showings, I have no doubt he will be fully prepared for this week. He is hard to ignore.
Bryson Dechambeau (10/1) was much hyped here last season before failing to deliver and finishing in 34th place. He has been continuing his strong form since with a win at Bay Hill followed by a 3rd at The Players before a largely lacklustre match play event where he failed to make it out of his group. Augusta is not a course you can simply overpower, and I cannot ignore Bryson's poor record here. He is heavily underpriced for me.
Jordan Spieth (10/1) is a Masters specialist with a win, two 2nds, and a 3rd. He is the in-form player on Tour, having preceded last week's win with two other top 10s. I love Jordan's chances here, and there would have been a time recently where his price was attractive enough for a bet, but I cannot justify supporting him at 10/1. We move on.
John Rahm (11/1) and Justin Thomas (11/1) are the best of the rest. Rahm welcomed his first child last week, thereby confirming his attendance. He has consecutive top 10s in three starts here, but his form has just been too intermittent of late. Thomas was 4th here in November, and with a win at the WGC in Mexico, last month looks like he could well be one to contend at the front of the market.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
Rory McIlroy has been inside the top 10 in six of his last seven Masters appearances, and the Northern Irishman has flown under the radar somewhat this week given his absence from the winners’ enclosure which now spans over 18 months. Recently Rory has top 10 finishes in Florida and at the WGC. His game is close to where it needs to be for him to contend here and to contend seriously. McIlroy is a four-time Major champion, and The Masters is the only event missing from that CV.
The course suits him as well as any of the Major venues that he has won on elsewhere. His long, high draws are ideal for attacking Augusta, and it will be on and around the greens where it is decided how close he goes here. With many big names having lingering question marks, Rory could well come from further down the market to surprise everyone. He is a bet for me with 5 points e/w @ 16/1
Other Betting Tips
Tony Finau has had a fantastic season. He has finished 2nd three times, and the only absence is that long-elusive win. What encourages me about Tony is that I don't believe he is scared to win. On each occasion, circumstances have gone against him, and I am prepared to back him to get that pony off his back here at Augusta. With top 10s here in two of his last three starts when in nowhere like the form he is in previously, Finau has massive potential. His long game is outstanding and ideally suits Augusta. He is similar to Rory in that his short game will dictate his finish here. It needs to improve somewhat, but if it does, then he has every bit as much chance as those players three times shorter than him in the market. I have had 2 points e/w at 30/1
Following a rolling profit of 300 points for the 2019 & 2020 seasons, I am looking for a great 2021 and have some great bets lined up for events throughout the year on both the PGA and European Tours. Each week I will pick between two to four selections at each event and suggest a suitable staking plan.
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