Open de Portugal Betting Tips
Rob Cobley’s Open de Portugal Betting Tips
Royal Obidos, Portugal - Par 72, 6,990 Yards
The European Tour sits somewhat in the shadow of its US compatriot this week, with the big names all off in New York competing at The US Open. That does however allow some of the lesser lights of the Tour the opportunity to shine in the Portuguese sun as Royal Obidos hosts the Open de Portugal for the very first time. A Seve Ballesteros design that includes (unusually) five par 5s and five par 3s, Obidos is a quirky design that on the face of it could really throw up any outcome this week.
The conditions are forecast to be windy, and with the increased number of par 3s, I'm going to be looking for great iron players who can handle tough conditions and a tricky course set up. Par 5 scoring will also be important, but maybe less so than a good iron player. The course, as ever down in this part of the world, is in imperious condition, and I think I've found a couple of gems that could go very well for us here.
Last Three Winners (@ Morgado Golf Resort):
Year | Winner | Score 2019 | Adrian Moronk | -15 2018 | Dimitros Papadapos | -7 2017 | Matt Wallace | -21
The Market Leaders
South African George Coetzee (4/1) comes into this week as an insanely short favourite, having picked up back-to-back wins in the last couple of weeks. George has a good record with a previous career win in Portugal, although that was on a more benign resort course, and has picked up wins in his last two events following a 2nd on the Challenge Tour so there is no denying that he is an exceptional player in exceptional form. That said, Coetzee would need to make it a hat-trick and albeit this is a weaker field than for a regular Tour event, that is going to be a huge challenge and although he is a player I like, he is of little interest at this price.
Garrick Higgo (16/1) sits next in the market and, whilst a talented youngster, he has done little in the professional game to justify to me that he should be this price. He could get hot and have a great week, but I'm not sure Portugal is where it is likely to sit apart from the field, and he is another to leave alone. Jamie Donaldson (18/1) and Craig Howie (22/1) have been playing some good golf over the last few weeks and appear to be better value selections. Donaldson, once a Ryder Cup hero, had fallen out of love with the game following significant short game and putting difficulties but five consecutive made cuts including a top 10 at The Belfry have shown what he can produce when his game is in this type of shape. He has a couple of top 10s in Portugal and if he is firing could go close. Howie has a couple of top 5s since the Tour resumed and looks a real talent to me. He hits the ball cleanly and has a lovely short game. I would have him as the second favourite here by some distance and couldn't put anyone off backing him.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
Julian Suri: 45/1 To Win
Julian Suri is a two time European Tour winner who has, and to a degree continues to, struggle to find his best form. Suri is that rare thing of an American playing his trade consistently over on the European Tour but has been unable to meet the consistency that he was showing a couple of years ago. Lately there have been flashes, he has made his last couple of cuts and entered the weekend inside the top 10 twice in the last four events before falling away. Suri has played one event in Portugal where he finished 2nd three years ago, but what I really like is how his strengths should fit Royal Obidos like a glove.
Obidos places a premium on par 3 and par 5 scoring, and those are two areas where Suri has excelled, even in this weaker season. He is 5 under par for the par 3s this year, which is an astonishingly good record and in the top 15 on Tour. He ranks less impressively on the par 5s this year, but the last two years were 28th and 13th so there's no concern that with an improving game, he can't be making shots on the field on these holes. There are still eight par 4s and these have been as much as anything this season, but with his strong ball striking in tough conditions I'm really liking Suri this week. 3 points e/w @ 45/1
Other Betting Tip
Andres Romero: 90/1 To Win
Andres Romero will long be remembered for throwing away The Open Championship in a similar, although less infamous way as Jean Van de Velde now ten years ago at Carnoustie. The Argentine held a two shot lead before a closing triple bogey saw him pipped on the line for golf's biggest crown. That is the high (or low as you might see it) point of Romero's up and down career that sees him also hold three PGA Tour titles and a host of other wins around the World. Recently, his game has been less impressive. He is, though, a renowned wind player and a fantastic, although streaky, iron player who I feel could really excel in this lower calibre of competition this week. He blew the cobwebs away with a top 50 last week and I think he could go even better this week. 2 points e/w at 90/1.
Following a rolling profit of 463 points in 2019, I am looking for an even better 2020. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event on the European and PGA Tours, and suggest a suitable staking plan.
|European Tour||-76 points|
|PGA Tour||+51 points|