Premier League Top Four Odds

Back in the day, the top four of the Premier League was the main aim for a lot of teams as it guaranteed entry into the Champions League, in the modern day, that has changed due to the new formatting of Europe's top competition. However, the idea of finishing in the top four of the Premier League table is still a fantastic feat. So much so that outside of the Premier League's top six teams, only three teams have infiltrated the top four since 2001. They are Newcastle United, who have done so on three occasions, Everton and Leicester City who have managed it on just one occasion. This season, it looks likely that Aston Villa will join them when looking at the latest standings but even with just four teams making the cut in 23 years shows how difficult the task is.

Who could make the top four in upcoming seasons?

We are currently seeing the first time that different teams have broken the top four in back-to-back seasons with Newcastle United finishing fourth in 2022/23 and Aston Villa 2023/24. There are two teams that are virtually guaranteed to finish in the top positions, they are Arsenal and Manchester City. Liverpool are expected to match them over the course of a season but with Jurgen Klopp and likely a number of players leaving the club, who knows what the future holds for Liverpool.

Newcastle United and Aston Villa are the two that are likely to challenge the top four again next season. However, many fans are interested to see how West Ham United will look next season, will an attack-focused manager replace David Moyes? Will Lucas Paqueta leave? These two questions could be the difference between challenging for top 7 and top 4 in the greatest league in football.

Another team that aren't mentioned but are improving are Chelsea, who haven't been winning a lot of games in recent seasons and have had two of their lowest points totals in history. They as a club are used to fighting with Man City and Man Utd for the title but in the modern day, they may have to accept that top four would be an achievement.

The most likely team to finish in fourth position next season are Tottenham Hotspur, who have improved under Ange Postecoglou despite losing star striker Harry Kane.

Getting top four: what does it take?

Historically, 70 points has been the total set for teams looking to make top four. However, In 2023/24, picking up 67 points was enough for Aston Villa to get top four. In the last ten seasons, teams have needed an average of 69 points to finish in the Champions League spots. The highest value needed for success was 76 when Arsenal finished in fifth with 75 points in 2016/17. Meanwhile, the lowest valuation required was 63 in 2019/20 when both Manchester United and Chelsea qualified for the Champions League with Leicester City finishing up with just 62 points and finishing 5th.