Conservative Leader Betting

Betting on next Conservative leader odds never really stops thanks to the 24/7 nature of UK politics. In 2022 the Tories went through three prime ministers and there’s always a chance the Conservative leader betting odds will flip in an instant.

Here at Bet UK we work hard to offer the best betting experience when it comes to politics. Figuring out who will be the next Conservative leader is no different, and our odds are in constant flux.

They impact the next UK general election odds and other markets, such as the latest Rishi Sunak odds. So, if you’re seeking to wager on the next Tory leader – and perhaps the next prime minister – then you’re in the right place.

Betting on next Conservative leader

UK politics works differently to American or French politics, in that the country doesn’t explicitly vote for a prime minister. The UK votes for a party to form a government, and its leader becomes the de-facto PM. Therefore when it comes to betting on the next Conservative leader, the focus isn’t always on the prime minister. Indeed, if the Tories are in opposition then it’s simply a wager on who leads them in Parliament.

Anyway, the Conservative party has its own rules around who can be leader. Anyone running for the leadership first needs the backing of fellow Members of Parliament. After that their name goes on a ballot, which is sent to all Conservative members in the UK. Around 180,000 of them vote for their new leader.

This happened in 2019 when Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Hunt to the leadership, and in 2022 when Liz Truss edged Rishi Sunak - who would go on to take the role when Liz Truss was removed from her position.

The betting markets, therefore, take into account not just who parliamentarians want as their new leader, but who Tory members want. As we saw with Truss, there’s often a difference between these two camps.

How to bet on Conservative leader

You can start betting on next Conservative leader as soon as you sign up to Bet UK. Open an account today and sign into your profile, make sure your account is charged, and come back to this page. Above you’ll see all the latest Conservative leadership odds alongside each candidate.

These odds are in continual flux and change depending on what’s going on at Westminster. For example, when Johnson resigned in 2022 Sunak’s odds on being the next leader crashed, as did Penny Mordaunt. However, Truss ended up the victor that time.

The top candidates when this was written to replace Sunak are:

  • Kemi Badenoch
  • Boris Johnson
  • Penny Mordaunt
  • James Cleverly
  • Ben Wallace
  • Jeremy Hunt

However, Suella Braverman is a candidate who has risen through the odds in 2023. After addressing the National Conservative conference gathering of socially conservative figures, she gave a pitch that led to a number of followers backing her to enter the leadership contest ahead of a general election. The tory party has been led into disarray with short tenures for previous Prime Minister. Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson sits as one of the favourites to reclaim the role of conservative leader, despite being outed in recent history.

To place a politics bet, simply click on the odds you want to back and this will open the bet slip. Enter your stake and check you’re happy with the potential return. Double check your risk again and then hit Place Bet to complete the process.

Next Conservative leader betting odds

When it comes to the betting odds next Conservative leader punters usually look at what could change between now and a leadership challenge. If the prime minister (or party leader if the Tories are in opposition) looks safe, then a bettor may look at long-shot odds or up-and-coming politicians who might become leader in a few years time.

If there is turmoil in Westminster and the Conservative leader could fall then it becomes a hot market. The odds on the frontrunners will fall and that’s where all the focus will be. Viable candidates to replace a Conservative leader include:

  • The chancellor / shadow chancellor
  • The home secretary / shadow home secretary
  • The deputy leader
  • The foreign secretary / shadow foreign secretary
  • The health secretary / shadow health secretary

Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak all held at least one of these roles before ascending to leader.

Conservative Leader Betting tips

If you’re thinking of betting on next Conservative leader markets then it’s worth checking out these tips before you continue:

Assess the current leader – As mentioned above, if the current leader is in a secure position then it’s unlikely their immediate colleagues will get the job next. Instead, look for MPs in their first term who have big majorities

When’s the next election? – If the Tories lose an election they almost always axe their leader. It’s the same with the next Labour leader. Therefore the better-priced candidates in the lead-up to an election are primed to replace the outgoing figure

Who is making most noise? – A minister who clearly has a good PR team behind them and is making a lot of noise could be angling for power. This was evident with Truss, who targeted middle England with her Thatcherite photoshoots in the lead-up to the 2022 leadership contest.

Ask why odds are changing – If the odds are shifting for one candidate then consider why that is. Have they suddenly come under the media spotlight, or perhaps they’re being ignored

Follow the polls – Always keep an eye on the polls and how they reflect the next Conservative leader betting odds. Polls can help inform your bet choices, even if they aren’t totally fool-proof

Remember, these are live Bet UK odds in this market and prices are likely to jump if big events unfold in Westminster, such as a resignation or a political scandal. It’s therefore wise when betting on the Conservatives to keep an eye on UK politics in general. You never know when the market might flip on its head! 

Conservative Leader History

NameStart DateTenure
Rishi Sunak24th October 2022Incumbent
Liz Truss5th September 20221 Month, 19 Days
Boris Johnson23rd July 20193 Years, 1 Month
Theresa May11th July 20163 Years
David Cameron6th December 200510 Years, 7 Months

Conservative Leader mobile betting

As the general election looks to be favouring the current labour leader Keir Starmer, Conservative MPs will be concerned that it looks like that the conservatives lose a general election for the first time since 2007. David Cameron won the election in 2010 and was followed by Theresa May and then London Mayor Johnson. However, since then, it has been downhill for the conservative party. A lot can change in a short space of time in Politics, so there can't be any ruling out that Conservatives win the general election and Rishi Sunak stays on as the Conservative Leader. However, if this is the case, it may be worth looking at the betting market for the next labour leader as if Keir Starmer was to lose the general election from the position they were in during 2023, it would likely cost him his role as Labour leader.

Remember, you can access the next Conservative leader odds on your phone or tablet by downloading the Bet UK app! Our app provides instant access to the entire Bet UK sportsbook, including politics betting. Check out the odds on the next Conservative leader, who will be prime minister next, and who will win the election.

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