2021 Super Bowl Betting Tips
Arguably the strangest season in NFL history comes to an end with Super Bowl LV on Sunday evening. This year, the Kansas City Chiefs will be looking to defend their title against a Tom Brady led Tampa Bay Buccaneers side. The Super Bowl will be played in Tampa Bay, the fact that Tom Brady will be hoping works in his favour. For the latest NFL betting odds for all matches, make sure to head over to Bet UK’s online betting. Make sure to head over to our promotions page for the latest free bets and offers available too.
Kansas City Chiefs - 11/20 To Win The Super Bowl
How The Chiefs Made The Super Bowl
The Chiefs were as dominant as ever in the 2020 regular season. The Chiefs became the first side in NFL history to start five consecutive seasons 4-0 after a bright start with very few setbacks. An inevitable AFC West title was claimed in Week 14 with a win over the Miami Dolphins, before a strong end to the season gave the Chiefs a league-leading 14-2 record. Remarkably, the Chiefs finished the season unbeaten away from home.
In the playoffs, Patrick Mahomes faced Baker Mayfield in a battle of two young quarterbacks in the Divisional Round. However, the game was marred by an injury to Mahomes in the 3rd quarter. After entering the concussion protocol, backup quarterback Chad Henne saved the game with an impressive late 4th quarter drive. The Bills and Josh Allen were the next team to visit Arrowhead Stadium. Luckily for the Chiefs, Mahomes was cleared to play this game and led his side to a comfortable 38-24 win.
The Chiefs have been the best team in football this year, and it’s no surprise that they made the Super Bowl for the second year in a row. Patrick Mahomes has been as impressive as ever, and when he’s on his game, it’s tough to see any team beating the Chiefs. Mahomes averaged 321 passing yards per game in the regular season, the highest stat in the NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7/5 To Win The Super Bowl
How The Tampa Bay Buccaneers Made The Super Bowl
It was a huge summer of change for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020. Legendary quarterback Tom Brady joined from the New England Patriots, bringing long term teammate Rob Gronkowski out of retirement to join him. Later in the season, 7x Pro Bowler Antonio Brown also headed to South Florida, joining an incredible roster. The strategy of aggressively signing stars clearly worked for the Bucs, ending the season with an 11-5 record. The Bucs subsequently made the playoffs for the first time since 2007, finishing second in the NFC South.
The Buccaneers started their postseason campaign in the Wild Card round, with a trip to Washington. A field goal earned on the first drive gave the Buccaneers a lead they would keep until the end of the 4th, eventually winning 31-23. Next came two matches against two legendary quarterbacks - Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Brees was up first, although Brady came out on top in the battle of the over 40s QB’s. Despite the Saints leading after the first quarter, a dominant Tampa Bay forced four turnovers to help the Bucs win 30-20.
In the NFC Championship game, Brady took his Bucs up to Lambeau Field to take on Aaron Rodgers and his Green Bay Packers. It was the toughest test for the Buccaneers yet, and a test they looked determined to fail. The Bucs gave up more yards and gave up more turnovers, but Rodgers could not lead his side to the win. It was a fortunate win, but one that Tom Brady will ensure does not happen again. No player has won the Super Bowl MVP more times than Tom Brady, so coming into Sunday’s game, we have to consider that history will repeat itself.
Comparing the Chiefs and the Buccaneers
|Stat||KC Chiefs||TB Buccaneers|
|Quarterback||Patrick Mahomes||Tom Brady|
|2020 Team Offense||6th in the NFL||3rd in the NFL|
|Passing Yards||4,854 (1st)||4,626 (2nd)|
|Rushing Yards||1,799 (16th)||1,519 (28th)|
|Kick Return Yards||646 (19th)||546 (26th)|
|Pts Per Game||29.6 (6th)||30.8 (3rd)|
|2020 Team Defense||11th in the NFL||8th in the NFL|
|Passing Yards Allowed||5,733 (16th)||5,234 (6th)|
|Rushing Yards Allowed||1,954 (21st)||1,289 (1st)|
|Pts Allowed Per Game||22.6 (11th)||22.2 (8th)|
Spread Betting For The Super Bowl
Spread betting is the most popular way to bet on the NFL. With spread betting, you are still essentially betting on the game’s eventual outcome, but you’ll be getting better odds for your bet.
Similar to asian handicap betting in football, spread betting places either an imaginary points advantage or deficit to the teams involved in the game. For example, ahead of the 2021 Super Bowl, the spread looks like this:
This means that the Kansas City Chiefs are favourites to win by more than 4 points in the game. Essentially, betting on San Francisco 49ers (+3.5), means that they start the game with an imaginary 3.5-0 lead. Betting on the Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5), means that they start the game with a score of 0 - -3.5. Spread betting is something to look out for ahead of the Super Bowl, as well as all NFL fixtures for the next season.
Where’s The Value Bet?
One way we like to look for value is in the total points betting. It’s always worth looking back through the Super Bowl’s history to see if there are any trends worth picking up on. Of the last 20 Super Bowls, the winning team averages just over 29 points per game, with the losing side coming in at just under 19. The Chiefs’ are the favourite for this game, but it’s still very tough to call with Tom Brady on the other side, so we’ll avoid anything that leads to picking a winner here. Instead, we’ll look at the total points, which is averaged at 48.3 points a game since 2000. Although there are two supreme offensive talents in this game, the Super Bowl is an entirely different beast, so don’t be surprised to see either side ease up a bit. With that being said, betting on under 49 points at over 2/1 looks like great value.
How To Watch The Super Bowl
The 2020 Super Bowl will be shown live on BBC this Sunday evening. Coverage will begin on BBC Two at 23:00, before moving to BBC One ahead of the game starting at 23:30.
Bet UK’s Headline Betting Tip
The Kansas City Chiefs are the best passing team in the NFL and have the best passing QB in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes. So, it makes sense that the Chiefs would look to pass plenty during this weekend’s Super Bowl. Because of that, we are looking towards Travis Kelce, Mahomes’ favourite receiver of the past few years. The tight end averaged seven receptions per game this season, but in such a big game, we expect the Chiefs to run plenty of plays that get their stars linking up together.