Australian Open Semi-Final and Final Tips: Zverev to Beat Djokovic?
The first Grand Slam of the season, the Australian Open, has reached its business end and there are two familiar faces in the men’s event still in the hunt for the opening piece of major silverware in 2025.
Defending champion Jannik Sinner and 24-time Grand Slam winner Novak Djokovic, who is chasing an 11th Australian Open crown, top the billing and are on course to clash in what would be a blockbuster final.
World number one Sinner should have too many weapons for his semi-final rival, Ben Shelton, who is featuring in the last four of a Grand Slam for only the second time following his heroics at the US Open in 2023.
However, Djokovic, now 37 years of age, may have a tougher test on his hands against world number two Alexander Zverev, who could be edging ever closer to Grand Slam glory, following runner-up efforts at the 2020 US Open and last season’s French Open.
Tip 1 - Alexander Zverev to beat Novak Djokovic @ 27/20
Despite being 37, Djokovic continues to defy expectations and he showed great mental resolve to come from a set down to defeat Carlos Alcaraz in four in his quarter-final.
However, the ten-time Australian Open champion displayed clear signs of struggle in the second set and a lengthy battle with Zverev would pose serious questions of his current fitness.
Even so, Alcaraz can be criticised for letting the Serb off the hook, and Djokovic may not be so fortunate against world number two Zverev, who is arguably in the form of his life.
The German has dropped only two sets on his way to the semi-final, having been so efficient on serve. He has also won three of his last five meetings with Djokovic, which should offer hope in pursuit of an upset.
Zverev still awaits a first Grand Slam title, but he is twice a Major runner-up and would be fully deserving of having another shot at claiming a big piece of silverware.
Tip 2 - Over 12.5 games in first set for Jannik Sinner v Ben Shelton @ 5/2
Sinner is growing to the challenge in his title defence and after making light work of home favourite Alex de Minaur (6-3 6-2 6-1) in the quarter-finals, the impressive Italian is expected to ease past American ace Shelton.
Having lost their opening encounter in Shanghai in 2023, Sinner has now recorded four straight-set successes over Shelton, and it is hard to see him flattering to deceive.
However, Shelton is extremely strong on serve and there could be value in backing the opening set to go to a tiebreak, with all five of the American’s Australian Open victories featuring at least one.
The early exchanges should be when the contest is at its most even, and all five previous meetings between this pair have featured at least one tiebreak.
Tip 3 - Jannik Sinner to win Australian Open @ 1/2
With Djokovic uncertain to justify favouritism against Zverev, the stage looks set for world number one Sinner to make it two Australian Open triumphs in succession.
The Italian should put his experience to good use against Shelton and then would be a clear favourite in the final, with Djokovic unlikely to match him over the course of five sets and Zverev being bogged down by the burden of having never previously won a Grand Slam title.
Odds correct at time of publication