Wyndham Championship Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers.
_Sedgefield Country Club - Ross Course, Greensboro, North Carolina - Par 70, 7,127 Yards__
On the back of a Major Championship followed immediately by a World Golf Championship, the PGA Tour roller coaster rides on to North Carolina, and the historic Donald Ross designed Sedgefield Country Club. Situated 90 miles northeast of the town of Charlotte, this historic gem was built in 1926, and underwent a substantial redesign to bring it in line with the challenges of modern golf in 2007. Since then it has played host to this terrific event, taking over from Forest Oaks in 2008.
A fairly easy par 70, with smaller than average undulating greens, Sedgefield is an eminently scorable venue. Winning numbers here typically sit in the low twenties under par for this standard of golfer. Par 4s are the key, and players will need to keep the ball in the fairway, and hit the greens to set up what will be ample birdie opportunities. The winner here typically averages a birdie on every 3.5 to 4 holes so there this will be a sprint from the get go, and any round not in the 60s will severely impact a player’s chances of winning. With conditions expected to be calm, I can foresee Henrik Stenson’s 2017 record winning total of 258 (22 under par) being threatened, and likely bettered.
Last Five Winners:
2018: Brandt Snedeker - -21
2017: Henrik Stenson - -22
2016: Si-Woo Kim - -21
2015: Davis Love III - -17
2014 : Camilo Villegas - -17
The Market Leaders
Last week we tipped Webb Simpson who came oh so close when placing 2nd behind World number 1 Brooks Koepka at the Fedex St Jude in Memphis. Simpson made a slow start to the tournament and, despite a brilliant weekend charge, couldn’t quite do enough to prevent Koepka lifting his maiden WGC title. This week we are in his backyard, and the Charlotte native heads the betting at 17/2 in an event that he won in 2011, and has stunningly achieved 5 top 10s in his other 8 appearances at Sedgefield. With the home crowd behind him and second place finishes in two of his last 4 starts, it is impossible to rule Simpson out of winning again at this venue, however in a field of such quality I can’t find enough value in the price. If this event is played ten times, he likely wins once which for me counts out picking 17/2 as a bet and for that reason i’ll be looking further down the market.
Behind Simpson is Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama (14/1). Hideki has failed, for me, to set the golfing World alight given his talents and his World ranking continues to slip accordingly with just two top 10s in his last nine events, and no top 5s. That said, he is obviously a precocious talent on his day, and he does have three top 15 finishes in his 5 starts at Sedgefield, including a 3rd place in 2016 behind Korean Si Woo Kim. For me, he does not win enough to justify the price, and he is another that I will leave this week. Twenty Two year old rookie Colin Morikawa (15/1) who won the Barracuda Championship last week, continuing the sensational run of young Tour players in 2019 is the next in the betting, and a low scoring venue full of birdies should play to his strengths. There is, however, a step up to winning in the company of the World’s best players and making Morikawa third favourite, despite his excellent form, just isn’t for me. The final sub 20/1 player is American Jordan Spieth (18/1). Spieth has been heavily criticised in some quarters of late for not winning, but he has quietly returned five top 20s in his last seven starts, and cannot be ruled out at a venue with so much emphasis on a good putting game.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
This week I’m going for a win only bet on one of the leading contenders in Jordan Spieth. The three-time major winner and 2015 FedEx Cup champion has 14 career wins, but has not tasted victory for two years since winning his battle with Matt Kuchar in the 2017 Open Championship at Hoylake. Spieth has been heavily criticised in some quarters, but as remarked above, his game has actually been in very good shape, and he arrives at a course that should suit him perfectly, and where he finished second on his only visit back in 2013.
Spieth’s issues this year have mostly come with his long game, and particularly off the tee. Whilst this has always been his comparative weakness, it has been accentuated recently with his exceptional short game feeling the strain. Last week in Memphis saw further improvements however, and Spieth was buoyant after a closing 68 which saw him finish in 12th place. At a more comfortable, and less challenging venue, and with all eyes on the hometown favourite, I strongly fancy that Spieth could come in under the radar and will be backing him to do so with 4 points win at 16/1.
Other Betting Tips
The second selection this week is in form new Slovakian resident, and former South African Rory Sabbatini. Fresh from a week off last week having returned an impressive 16th place finish at Royal Portrush, Sabbatini will be eyeing up a significant opportunity at Sedgefield where he has finishes of 8th and 4th in his last three starts. Not a player that I expected much from this year, the 43 year old is playing some of his best golf for years having changed nationality and has racked up top 10s in 50% of his starts this year away from that Open finish. Rory is a good all round player, and has six PGA Tour wins to his name. He has also finished runner up at The Masters where the greens are similarly sloping and challenging.
The low scoring conditions should be favourable for his challenge. Four weeks ago at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, he finished -18 and although that was seven shots behind eventual winner Nate Lashley, it shows his ability to reach the kind of numbers that will be required to challenge this week. I recommend 2 points e/w at 45/1.
Washington resident Luke List is my next selection. Despite being in a very average run on performances (List has missed his last five cuts following a 6th plat at the USPGA), I feel that he has the game to overcome this venue. List hits the ball straight, and has a high ball flight which will be required to land and stop the ball quickly on these small putting surfaces. His best performance this season came at the RSM classic in Georgia, another tournament where the winning score was 20 under par, and on his day List is able to go as low as any in this field. On that occasion he only just made the cut, but a blistering third round 63 followed by a 65 saw him finish just two shots behind eventual winner Charles Howell III. 1 point e/w at 100/1.
The final selection this week is another player who can go low in American Chesson Hadley. Hadley has experienced a relatively poor season with just one top 10 amongst a long run of missed cuts, but he has been suffering in areas that will be far less visible at Sedgefield. Hadley’s performance off the tee has been poor, losing 0.4 shots from the tee every round on the field; nearly two per tournament. This will be less of a factor on the generous fairways here, and he has shown that he can go low on easier venues. His highest finish this season was 21 under par at the CIMB Classic where he came 2nd at the end of last year, and he followed that up with a 15 under par 7th at the Shriners for Children's event the week after.
If Hadley can get his tee to green play up to the level of his competitors, then he has an excellent chance to contend again this week, and at this type of venue should not be priced as he is. I will be backing him with 1 point e/w at 200/1.
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*All odds from Bet UK’s online betting markets correct at the time of writing.
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