Workday Charity Open Betting Tips

Workday Charity Open Betting Tips

Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers. So far in 2020, Rob Cobley is 27 points in profit when betting on the PGA Tour. That means for a £1 stake, Cobley is £27 in profit so far.

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The Course

Muirfield Village Golf Club - Dublin, Ohio - Par 72, 7,392 Yards

Muirfield Village sets the stage for one of the more eagerly anticipated weeks on the PGA Tour, as one of the strongest fields of the regular season heads to the Jack Nicklaus designed masterpiece for what is always a hotly contested event. Just 20 miles north of the city of Columbus, Muirfield is a pristine, undulating, parkland course lined by trees, and where accuracy off the tee is far more important to this week’s contenders than distance.

A par 72, with 4 par 3s, and 4 birdiable par 5s, the winning score here usually sits at around -15 and, with conditions this week predicted to be favourable, there is nothing to suggest anything different. Despite those low scores, any player not exhibiting accuracy from the tee will be severely punished by the thick rough and 77 bunkers which provide the defence for this old school venue. Added to that, players will find water in play on 11 holes. A good long game, and creative shotmaking are the keys to taming Muirfield, and I will look for these amongst the selections this week.

This event has previously been known as The Memorial, and all form is from that event. It is essentially the same tournament, just with a new title sponsor.

Last Five Winners:

Year Winner Score
2019 Patrick Cantlay -19
2018 Bryson Dechambeau -15
2017 Jason Dufner -13
2016 William McGirt -15
2015 David Lingmerth -15

The Market Leaders

The market has largely struggled to identify its favourite this week, but has now settled on Justin Thomas (10/1) who has more missed cuts than top 10s at Muirfield Village, and who missed the cut in his last event before. That might be slightly remiss as Justin undoubtedly has the game for this course, and does have a 4th and an 8th before that missed cut last year so he certainly should be in the mix, but I struggle to see him as any value given the depth and strength elsewhere. Last year's winner Patrick Cantlay (14/1) has a more impressive record here with that win being preceded by a 9th place finish in 2018. Cantlay has made just one appearance since the restart with a competitive 11th placed finish at The Travellers Championship, and he will be keen to put up a strong defence in front of Jack Niklaus this week. His game suits this course well, and I would make him slightly shorter than Thomas, although I see neither as a stand out bet.

John Rahm (14/1) has failed to impress over the last few weeks with a smattering of finishes just inside the top 40. All aspects of his game look a little rusty, and i think he was right to take the event off in Dallas last week and try to come back refreshed here. Rahm, on his day, is of course an excellent player and I think the price is about right. He would be justifiably single figures here in his pre lockdown form, and i'm expecting an improved showing this week. Brooks Koepka (14/1) is looking better and better by the week, and a 7th place at the RBC Heritage in his last start gives much cause for optimism. Koepka has only appeared here twice, and the tight driving holes have proved his downfall. He has not, however, visited in the last two years, and he has achieved some stunning things in that time. I am expecting him and Rahm to be the two favourites who outperform their prices the most this week.

Rob’s Golf Betting Tips

Headline Betting Tip

John Rahm: 14/1 To Win

I've said above that I like Rahm's chances this week, and I like them enough to make him my headline selection. Rahm is an incredibly consistent player, and he achieved seven consecutive PGA Tour top 10s at the start of the year; a run not seen since the vintage Tiger Woods days. His game has no real weaknesses. Sometimes around the greens he can struggle more than Spaniards typically might, but he makes up for that in his fantastic tee to green game and deadly putting.

The fact that John started slowly, and took Detroit off doesn't dissuade me of his chances here. A few birdies, and that momentum will be instantly restored, and he is the player to be the most feared amongst this field if they all hit their best form. I suggest having 4 points e/w at 14/1.

Other Tips

Jordan Spieth: 40/1 To Win

Jordan Spieth remains a source of frustration, no least probably for himself as he continues to get his game back in shape. There were signs with a top 10 at the Charles Schwabb that things were moving in the right direction, and two made cuts, although without ever really contending, followed before he also took a break from action last week. Spieth has a good record here with a 7th placed finish last year to add to three other top 20s, and he has spoken openly about what it would mean to him to win Jack Nicklaus's event. Spieth's putting statistics at the RBC Heritage were the best on Tour in three years on days one and two, although as has been the way, all aspects of his game deteriorated over the weekend and that led to him falling out of contention eventually on Sunday afternoon. At a familiar venue where Spieth has played each of the last seven years, I'm backing him to put all four rounds together, and if he does so he could be almost impossible to stop. I am backing him with 2 points e/w at 40/1.

Brendan Steele: 125/1 To Win

Brendan Steele was the odds on favourite going into the final round of the Travelers Championship two weeks ago before succumbing to the power and fantastic putting of Dustin Johnson to finish in a relatively disappointing 6th place. Steele is an old school player who hits fairways and greens with impressive regularity, and goes on runs of good form that see him pick up wins. Having also had last week off, Steele should arrive fresh and in clearly impressive form. His record at Muirfield Village also holds up against most. He has made his last four cuts here, and has a finish in the top 20 when arriving with far less form and confidence than this week. When you look at players like An and Streelman going off less than half the price of Steele, there has to be value in this price. I will be staking 2 points e/w at 125/1.

2020 P&L

Following a rolling profit of 463 points in 2019, I am looking for an even better 2020. Each week i will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event on the European and PGA Tours, and suggest a suitable staking plan.

Tour Points
European Tour -69 points
PGA Tour +27 points
Total -42 points