2019 US Open Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring our readers weekly golf betting tips for all major PGA and European tour events. Read on for his 2019 US Open Betting Tips.
Last Five US Open Winner:
The Market Leaders
Four players have separated themselves at the top of the US Open market, and all are previous winners. Rory McIlroy, the 2011 winner at Congressional leads the betting at 8/1 following his stunning weekend at the Canadian Open where he spreadeagled the field to win by a comprehensive eight shots. Mcilroy undoubtedly has pedigree, but his record at Pebble is poor having played here twice and missed the cut both times, including at the AT&T earlier in the season, and he is hard to support at the price despite his obviously impressive form. Aside McIlroy at 8/1 is American Dustin Johnson, who threw away a four shot lead in the final round of the 2010 US Open the last time it was here to lose to Northern Ireland’s Graeme McDowell. Despite that failing, Johnson is in good form, and has won twice here, along with seven other top 10s in his last 10 appearances which makes him hard to oppoe at any price.
Behind these two sit recent USPGA Champion Brooks Koepka (9/1) and Masters Champion Tiger Woods (11/1). Koepka won the most recent Major last month is such impressive style, though struggled a little at last week’s Canadian Open, however Koepka has won more Majors than regular Tour events so that isn’t really an issue, however the accuracy of his iron play might be and I'm happy to leave him this week. Woods has Pebble pedigree having won here back in 2000 during his golden years, and I expect his challenge to be far more significant.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Tiger Woods comes to Pebble Beach this week chasing Major number 16 in his ongoing quest to reach the number of 18 set by the great Jack Nicklaus, and I fancy that he just might do it. Since winning in such impressively comprehensive style at Augusta nine weeks ago, Woods has played just twice; following up a missed cut at The USPGA with a top 10 at The Memorial on far more familiar and comfortable ground. That is what this venue will also provide for him. Since his win in 2000, Woods’ visits to Monterey have been sparing, following a 4th place in the 2010 US Open with a 12th at the AT&T back in 2012 as he recovered from injury and blew up in the last round in his battle against Phil Mickelson.
This venue suits Woods game perfectly. Whilst the driving still remains occasionally erratic, and it was that which prevented him contending at Bethpage last month, his iron play is back to being the best on Tour, and there is nobody more capable of attacking the small, fast, putting surfaces of Pebble Beach quite like Tiger. I expect his superior strategy and desire for that 16th major to be enough this week and that he will take that next step closer to Jack by lifting the US Open trophy on Sunday. I am backing him with 5 points win at 11/1..
Other Betting Tips
The next best selection at the prices this week is veteran American Phil Mickelson. It is hard to believe that the US Open has so far eluded Phil in what is such an illustrious career. One that has seen him hold all of the other three Majors, except the one that he wants most. Mickelson came closest back in 2013 when losing out to Justin Rose by two shots at Merion, and that has haunted him since. This season Mickelson has shown real signs of improvement, and he was challenging for The Masters before falling away over the weekend. His Pebble Beach form gives even more cause to be excited with wins at The AT&T in 2012, 2018, and a second place here earlier this season. If the conditions stay fairly calm, Mickelson should have the long game to support his excellent play around the greens and is a definite each way selection with 2 points e/w at 45/1..
The next selection is a player that has won already in California this year at the Northern Trust Championship, and who simply shouldn’t be 250/1 to win at a venue where he was 2nd in the last US Open nine years ago when arguably in less impressive form. Since then, Holmes has played this venue nine times, making the cut on six occasions, and posting two further top 10s; showing that Pebble Beach holds no fear for the larger than life Texan. He is certainly a value play with 1 point e/w at 250/1..
My final pick for this week is a 22 year old amateur who is making his Pebble Beach debut. Scottie Scheffler has been in red hot form on the Web.com Tour posting four top 10s, and a win in his last 8 starts, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him bring that form here on a shorter course, where his young age should not hold him back. Scheffler is a huge talent, and I’m a little surprised that he hasn’t already broken through onto the PGA Tour, however that is surely only a matter of time, and I can see him making his impact on the biggest stage this week. I shall be having 1 point e/w at 250/1..
Top Nationalities Betting Tips
Whilst most of the attention this week is focused on the big names battling it out to be crowned the US Open champion come Sunday night, there is a lot of value and entertainment to be had from looking at the many support markets on offer. Of these, few offers quite the variety and opportunity as the Top Nationalities, and i’m looking to follow up success at The Masters with further value selections in these markets here at Pebble Beach.
Rob’s Top Nationalities Tips
With Rory Mcilroy taking over 30% of the Top European market, there is substantial value to be had if hius Pebble Beach form strikes again and he doesn’t live up to last week’s fantastic performance in Canada. As we’ve seen, Rory has a lot to prove at the US Open having missed his last three cuts in the tournament, and i feel that this could leave the way open for another European to shine. Martin Kaymer has been in excellent form once again this year, and could quite possibly have won The Memorial and Players Championship had he not underperformed so badly in the final rounds. Whilst that is obviously a slight concern, finishes of 8th, and 3rd show his game is very much moving in the right direction.
Kaymer is also no stranger to US Open success, having blown the field away for an 8 stroke win at Pinehurst back in 2014. That form married with his recent good run, and an 8th place finish here back in 2010, make the German a fantastic each way price in the Top European market. Few players can match his laser like iron play, and i am happy to back him with 2 points e/w at 25/1.
The next market to catch my eye is the highly competitive Top Asian market. Headed by Japanese superstar Hideki Matsuyama at 6/4, the market presents significant opportunity should he not perform. Whilst there is every chance that he will, there is a huge talent pool beneath him, and for me the stand out is European Tour Chinese player Haotong Li. Whilst not a regular on the PGA Tour, Li has been performing very well of late, and made the cut at The Masters earlier this year. Since then he has posted a 4th place among three top 40 finishes, and I expect a strong showing from a very good wind player in the challenging conditions at Pebble Beach. I recommend 2 points win at 8/1.
Top Continental European
Whilst Kaymer represents value amongst the top Europeans including the likes of Mcilroy, i am drawn to Denmark’s Lucas Bjerregaard in the Continental European market. Bjerregaard is enjoying a great season having reached the semi finals of the WGC matchplay in Austin, and followed that up with a top 20 at The Masters. The conditions at Austin Country Club mirror closely what the players will expect to find here with high winds and fast greens representative of the typical US Open challenge. Lucas is as capable as any in this market of dealing with these challenges. I expect a very big week from him, and will be having 2 points e/w at 20/1.
Another American that I feel could well outperform his price this week is Daniel Berger. He has only previously played Pebble once, when he finished 10th as a 21 year old back in 2014, and is someone who’s iron play and putting is his key strengths. Berger has made 7 of his last 8 cuts, and links golf will play to all his strengths. I suggest 1 point e/w at 80/1.
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