Bet UK Trophee Hassan II Golf Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in sports betting. He has now partnered with Bet UK to bring you his golf betting tips each week for the sport’s biggest events. For the latest golf betting odds, head over to Bet UK’s online sportsbook, where you’ll find odds for all major European Tour and PGA events. You can also get golf betting tips for all major golf events at Bet UK's sports betting blog.
Last Week’s Results: In the RBC Heritage last week, Cobley correctly predicted Patrick Cantlay to place at odds of 19/1.
Red Course, Royal Golf Dar Es Salam. Rabat, Morocco. 7,550 Yards
This week the European Tour heads south west onto the continent of Africa, and “Morocco’s Major” at the Royal Palace at Dar Es Salam. Built essentially in the King’s back garden, the Red Course is a stern test of golf and one that punishes any errant shots harshly. A strategic, all round challenge where the fairways are relatively forgiving, but any shot that does stray too deep into the rough will almost certainly be blocked out by trees on a heavily tree lined and dog legged course.
The greens at Dar Es Salam are particularly challenging to the players with many sitting above the level of the approach shot, making the pins blind, and with significant run off areas, accurate iron play and skilful scrambling are essential to any successful player here.
Last Five Winners:
2018: Alexander Levy with -8 2017: Edoardo Molinari with -9 2016: Jeung-Hun Wang with -5 2015: Richie Ramsay with -10 2013 : Alejandro Canizares with -19
The Market Leaders
This is one of the most open weeks, with any player realistically being able to challenge if they bring their A game. Past winners over the last ten years have ranged from 150/1 to 20/1, and playoffs are not unusual as a tightly grouped field often contests for the Trophee Hassan II on tournament Sunday.
Leading the way is Holland’s Joost Luiten at a general 16/1* having finished in the top 13 on his previous two appearances here, and shown signs of form this year, although he has appeared far less often than we would normally expect to see the Dutchman on the European Tour and there is no real reason to expect him to excel this season, although at 16/1 the price is not unreasonable.
Behind Luiten are the likes of Smith (21/1), Elvira (24/1), and Levy (24/1*) who have all previously contended at the Red Course, and could well do so again. However, in a tournament that is so open, we are looking at the value further down the field to land a significant European Tour win.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Our headline tip this week goes to a young Italian who has exploded onto the European Tour, none more so than when winning on its last visit to Africa at the Magical Kenyan Open 6 weeks ago in comprehensive style. Migiozzi has only started one event since then when he finished a respectable 40th in Malaysia, and is well rested having not followed some of the bigger names to the recent big tournaments in the US. With the European Tour enjoying something of a mid season hiatus, Migliozzi will have had time to rest and reflect on that success, and is likely to come back hungry for more.
The 22 year old’s game cannot be brought into question, and nor can his desire to win, having closed out at his first opportunity; and in some style, striking the pin on the 18th on his way to a 1 shot victory. That was a similarly tree lined course, and at the current price, there is definite value in backing Migliozzi with 2 points e/w at 150/1.
This week’s second selection is 26 year old Irishman Paul Dunne. Dunne is one of the few multiple European Tour winners in the field, and has previously reached the heights of the major championships and WGC’s across the World. More recently, Dunne’s form has been slightly more unpredictable, and this season he has played his trade solely on the European Tour as he attempts to once more achieve those heights. In the last 10 weeks, Dunne has played 5 times and made the cut on each occasion, with a best placed finish of third. In terms of course form, Dunne has a 2nd and a 16th place to his name from 3 starts, so this slightly quirky and challenging venue holds no fear for him, and he should have won 2 years ago, but for an 18th hole eagle from Edoardo Molinari who went on to beat him in a playoff. I would be confident to back the Irishman with 2 Points e/w at 35/1*.
The next selection this week goes to Sweden’s Joakim Lagergren. Although largely out of form recently with missed cuts in his last 5 starts, Lagergren is still young at 26, and has showed significant form in his previous visits to Royal Golf Dar Es Salam with finishes of 46th, and last year’s 3rd place. Lagergren is an unpredictable player who can blow hot and cold, however if he can get off to a good start and put himself in the top 20, he certainly has the game to contend both for the place, and the win and is backable with 1 Point e/w at 200/1*.
This week’s final selection in Europe is another Scandinavian, and Denmark’s Lasse Jensen. Jensen has been in slightly better form than Lagergren, making his last four cuts and also has a top 5 at Golf Es Salam to his name back in 2017. Jensen is slightly less explosive than Largergren, and perhaps represents the more solid place value as he would be less likely to seal the tournament if in contention, but is certainly overpriced and I recommend a stake of 1 Point e/w at 200/1*.
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*All odds from Bet UK’s online sportsbook correct at the time of writing.
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