Alfred Dunhill Betting Tips

Shriners Hospital For Children Open Betting Tips and Preview

Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers.

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Bet On The Shriners Hospital For Children Open

The Course

TPC Sumerlin - Nevada - Par 71, 7,255 Yards

A strong field has assembled this week in the Nevada desert for the 36th staging of the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open; part of the PGA Tour charitable foundation that raises money for sick children around the country. This tournament was originally a five day, 90 hole event, reverting to a regular four day event back in 2004. Scoring is typically low with winning scores usually in the high teens to low twenties. Patrick Cantlay’s -9 win back in 2017 was an anomaly when the course was battered all week by unusually strong winds, and no player managed to post all four rounds in the 60s.

TPC Sumerlin is a private suburban club fifteen minutes drive west of the Las Vegas strip. It was designed by American Fuzzy Zoeller and is a fairly short and easy desert course which offers little variety or significant challenge to these players. There are wide, gently undulating fairways with friendly bermuda rough where players balls sit on top of the grass, and which pose little threat to any errant tee shots. The greens are flat, perfectly manicured, bentgrass surfaces which roll true and yield a large number of birdies year after year. It is also worth noting that Sumerlin sits over 2,000 feet above sea level, and the balls here will fly approximately 3 percent further than on a course at sea level.

This course is only testing when the wind gets up which, in Nevada, is rare, although the forecast for this week does offer up some hope with high gusts; particularly over the first two days as the side effects of hurricane Lorenzo are felt on the west coast. In what is largely a putting contest, the key formula for success will be birdie average, and strokes gained putting. The final four holes are the most interesting on the course, and could provide some drama. The 15th is a driveable par 4, 16 is a risk and reward par 5, 17 is a watery par 3, and the 18th is one of the few tough holes on the course. Either way, look for good putters and low scores this week.

Last Five Winners:

Year Player Score
2018 Bryson Dechambeau -21
2017 Patrick Cantlay -9
2016 Rod Pampling -20
2015 Smylie Kaufman -16
2014 Ben Martin -20

The Market Leaders

Brooks Koepka (8/1), the outspoken US world number one returns to the Las Vegas desert for the first time in three years at a tournament where he has enjoyed success in the past. Koepka was a big supporter of this event when he first came onto the PGA Tour, and after missing the cut in 2013, has gone on to achieve 4th and 2nd places. Those performances aren’t too much of a surprise at a venue where players can open their shoulders and where power is certainly a benefit over the field. Brooks also has a good wedge game, and it’s no surprise to see him out in front of the betting here. The field is deep and, as ever on the PGA Tour these days, we’re looking at around 60 players who can realistically take the title each week, but Koepka won’t be turning up for the appearance money and has to be respected even at this price.

Last year’s runner up and 2017 winner Patrick Cantlay (12/1) sits behind Koepka in the betting. Cantlay is in good form after a solid run in the Fedex Cup which saw him finish 2nd behind Justin Thomas in the BMW Championship at Medinah on 22 under par at a venue that was set up similarly to this week. That was Cantlay’s lowest score of the season ahead of his 20 under par here last year at a venue that he is clearly very comfortable on. Last week at the Safeway Open Cantlay never really got going after an opening 69 and could only manage a 40th place finish. I expect better from him again this week, and the price doesn’t seem so far wide of the mark.

Bryson Dechambeau (16/1) who has a similarly impressive record to Cantlay is the third favourite. Dechambeau won the title last year by one shot from Cantlay on 21 under par having finished 7th just a year earlier. He is another who hits the ball long and can be excellent on these receptive bentgrass greens. His recent form is improving with a 13th placed finish last week following from a 7th place at the Tour Championship. Adam Scott (18/1) showed his usual promise last week, opening with a 7 under par 65 before falling away and only just managing to finish inside the top 20. This is his first start at Sumerlin and courses with winning scores sub 20 under par aren’t usually his best fit. Webb Simpson (20/1) had a great run here at the start of the decade with 4th places in 2010 and 2014 either side of a win in 2015. Since then he has made four consecutive cuts without really contending, but at the end of consecutive 2nd place finishes at the end of the last wraparound season, cannot be ruled out of contention.

Rob’s Golf Betting Tips

Headline Betting Tip

Chesson Hadley: 100/1 To Win

Chesson Hadley, PGA Tour Rookie of the Year back in 2014, and winner of the Puerto Rico Open in the same season has struggled to rediscover his touch on Tour since that breakthrough year. He has maintained his card thanks largely to strong starts to each season, and showed signs last week with four under par rounds at a tournament he had previously failed to make the cut at, that he could be set for a strong start to this year.

Hadley is slightly built but hits the ball a long way and can get hot with the putter. Both these characteristics will go a long way at Sumerlin. He has played this event in each of the past five years, and it has been his stand out venue by some distance with finishes of 5th, 4th, and 7th last year. His game seems to peak at this time of year, and he clearly has a strong association to the course. Hadley would have placed in three of the past five years, and the price of 20/1 for him to do that once more as the each way part of our bet is too good to pass up. With another win due and Hadley coming back into form last week, it’s enough for me to make him my headline selection this week. I suggest 2 points e/w at 100/1

Other Betting Tips

Brandt Snedeker: 40/1 To Win

Brandt Snedeker’s way of playing TPC Sumerlin differs from each of my other picks this week. Snedeker is more of a precision, than a length, golfer; although he is far from the shortest hitter on Tour. What Brandt has that I like this week is the ability to shoot low numbers, and a player of his class being back at the top of his game and contending throughout the Fedex Cup playoffs warrants serious attention. He finished in the top 6 at both the BMW and the Northern Trust before finishing in the top 25 at East Lake to round off a fantastic season, and he comes here hungry. Snedeker has missed this event for the past four years, but posted a top 10 back in 2014.

Snedeker wouldn’t usually have the Shriners on his calendar, and the fact that he is here is enough for me to back him to really want to get an early season win under his belt. A couple of months ago at the Rocket Mortgage, he posted 17 under par for a 5th place finish, and his putting has always been hot. If he can improve his proximity to the hole with his approach shots, i would expect Snedeker to shoot four more rounds in the 60s and be a serious contender this week. I will be backing him with 2 points e/w at 40/1

Keegan Bradley: 70/1 To Win

Keegan Bradley had a real re-emergence on Tour at the end of last season, and was unlucky not to win at the Travelers Championship where he lost out by just one shot to Chez Reavie having almost overturned a six shot deficit going into the final round. Bradley is a bomber in every sense. From the tee he is long more than he is straight, and his iron play is either on or it isn’t. In recent weeks Bradley has played four events, making all the cuts, and is more rested than some at the top of the market who have gone through the playoffs and could be feeling fatigue as we head into the early year events of the 2020 season. This could be particularly applicable to the likes of Cantlay, Dechambeau, and Koepka, and I feel this provides an ideal platform for Bradley.

A proven winner, Major champion, and Ryder Cup player, Bradley has done it all and will be desperate to get a win here this week. He has played here twice before, with a best placed 7th on his last appearance in 2016. If his game is on, Keegan can go very low and I’m happy to have him on board with 2 points e/w at 70/1

Beau Hossler: 175/1 To Win

I am adding one more selection this week with a small price play on Beau Hossler who seems very overpriced. Hossler is a big hitter and has enjoyed previous success at Sumerlin having finished 7th in 2017 and backed that up with another top 25 finish last year. The course suits his big hitting game, and he also has good current form having posted a 2nd placed finish on the Korn Ferry Tour. Last week back on the PGA, Hossler missed the cut but before that had a very encouraging tournament at the Safeway Open. Rounds of 71 and 78 at the weekend dropped him out of contention, but he showed prior to the weekend that he was once more able to compete on the Tour. In his past eight rounds at Sumerlin, every single one has been in the 60s. This price is too big, and I recommend 1 point e/w at 175/1

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*All odds from Bet UK’s online betting markets correct at the time of writing.

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