The Porsche European Open Golf Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers.
Green Eagle Golf Courses, North Course, Winsen, Germany. Par 72, 7,544 Yards
Following on from last week’s 100/1 place courtesy of Adri Arnaus at the European Masters at Crans-Sur-Sierre we move on to Germany, and the Porsche European Open at Green Eagle golf club in Winsen. Some 40 miles south of Hamburg, and designed by the venue’s owner Michael Blesch, Green Eagle consists of the North & South courses, with the former being used as the venue for this week’s tournament.
The North course was opened in 1999 and substantially toughened and lengthened in 2017 ahead of its first hosting of this prestigious event in the same year. Although a long venue (it can play up to an eye watering 7,830 yards), Green Eagle North is open and relatively flat. The challenge here comes in the length along with substantial, punitive, bunkering, and water in play on all but one hole. Long, accurate, driving is a big advantage to the players here, both in order to find the fairways, and to keep away from the hazards that line the majority of fairways. For the approach shots, the greens are large, undulating, and soft; giving the long high ball flight players an advantage over the field.
Length is not the only advantage here. An all round good long game with accurate driving help, with both strokes gained off the tee, and greens in regulation, statistics being crucial for those looking to contend this week. Big numbers can easily be run up by any player at any time, including the longer hitters should they be erratic. Straight hitting, and avoiding Green Eagle’s large number of hazards, will be the key this week.
Last Five Winners:
2018: Richard McEvoy -11
2017: Jordan Smith -13
2016: Alexander Levy -19
2015: Tongchai Jaidee -17
2014: No Tournament
The Market Leaders
The field this week is a bit of a mixed bag with, arguably, five big names taking the top of the market, supported by a field that you would expect to find at any bog standard European Tour event. The absence of the likes of Martin Kaymer, Bryson Dechambeau and Charl Schwartzel will undoubtedly be a blow to organisers who have seen their event pushed deeper into the season, and the quality of the fields diminish in the last two to three years. Nonetheless, there are some great players here, including a rare influx from the USA to whet the appetite of the large and knowledgeable German crowds.
World number 9, and 2017 Fedex Cup champion Xander Schauffele (7/1) heads the betting on what is only his third trip across the Atlantic this season. Schauffele comes in on the back of another fantastic run at the Fedex Cup, finishing 2nd behind Rory McIlroy at an enthralling Tour Championship in Atlanta two weeks ago. The 25 year old is one of the stars on the future, and has a great all round game that will undoubtedly suit this challenging venue. Whether the top price 7/1 represents value, I’m not too sure. He hasn’t won in Europe before, and his motivation can be legitimately questioned this week. If he does turn up, he has a great shout, but for me it is too big of a gamble at the price.
Alongside Schauffele at the top of the market sits Englishman Paul Casey (7/1). Casey has had a very good season on the PGA Tour, picking up a win at the Valspar in March and following that up with an impressive run at the Fedex Cup which eventually saw him finish a highly credible career best 3rd behind Rory and Xander. This venue should suit Casey down to the ground. The Innisbrook venue in Florida where he won in March with a score of 8 under par is exceptionally similar, with accurate driving and approach play the order of the day. Casey has both in spades, and if he putts at all well, will likely be a strong contender.
Behind these two sits another American in the shape of Patrick Reed (8/1). No doubt at his sponsors’ behest, Reed has appeared at both previous European Opens hosted at Green Eagle, and finishes of 19th and 9th show this course holds no fear for him. A regular visitor to Europe, Reed has the complete game that will allow him to contend, and I can’t see him being too far behind the front two come the end of the week. Matt Kuchar (14/1) and recent Czech Masters champion Thomas Pieters (14/1) make up the first 5. Kuchar arrives in average form, although did post a final top 20 in the Fedex Cup. Pieers, meanwhile followed up that win with a 12th place finish on his return last week, and at the price he would be my preferred choice of these two.
As hard as I have tried, it has been impossible to tear myself away from the chances of Paul Casey this week. In a rare appearance on the European mainland, all roads seem to lead to Casey contending significantly this week. From the tee, and with his long irons, he is unrivaled in this field. Even if he were at his “C” game this week, Casey would expect to be in contention, but coming in straight off the back of a 3rd place finish at the season ending Fedex Cup on the PGA Tour, that is of no concern at all, and this is a bet I am very happy to recommend.
Casey has a long standing love affair with events in Germany; winning the BMW Open twice, and on his only prior appearance at Green Eagle he posted a highly respectable 7th place finish last year behind eventual winner Richard McEvoy. The competition outside of the top 3 is limited, and over 72 holes any player will be doing exceptionally well to finish above the World number 17. I considered a more conservative approach, but at the price, I am looking to play win only and have 5 points win at 7/1
In form South African Zander Lombard is my next selection at a very enticing 100/1. Lombard is another player exhibiting progressive form having made his last three cuts and posting top 16 finishes in three of his last six events on Tour. Lombard has a great long game similarly to the headline selection, and will expect his finish here on the North Course to exceed his Tour average which puts him in a great place with his recent form. Last year Lombard missed the cut here during a poor run of play, but the year before he posted a highly respectable 5th place so he also will be comfortable and confident in contending at this fairly new venue.
The key for Lombard will be keeping the ball in play. Bad rounds can occasionally get away from him, and throwing in that one high number is a concern. If, however, he can have a consistent week, then he will be thereabouts over the weekend, and this price could look very big. I suggest 2 points e/w at 100/1.
Veteran Japanese player Hideto Tanihara is another player that I like this week at the price. Tanihara has a very consistent long game, and is a course specific player. Last year at Green Eagle his solid long game outlasted all but four players in this field as he posted a 5th placed finish, and these quotes about him doing the same this year seem too high. Tanihara is no stranger to success having won 14 times on the Japanese Tour, and has posted some encouraging finishes this season. Last week he finished 20th at the European Masters, and before that he finished 8th at Valderrama. If you can play that venue, you can play any, and I would suggest a staking level the same as Lombard with 2 points e/w at 150/1.
Twenty one year old young Australian Min Woo Lee is a player that we want on our radar over the coming year, and one I feel could have his first strong tour showing this week in Germany. Lee is a huge talent, and his long game is his biggest strength. Greens in regulation are his strength, a long hitter who finds fairways and greens with comfortable regularity. At this venue that skill will be critical to keep the big numbers away, and with winning scores at around 11 under par, Lee would not need to do much more to get himself into contention. This will be his first visit to the venue, and he does not have any discernible recent form to back up his claims, but I feel that this price is too high and there is each way value to backing him with 1 point e/w at 150/1.
Play Book Of Dead at Bet UK
*All odds from Bet UK’s online betting markets correct at the time of writing.
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