Derby v Aston Villa - Championship Play Off Betting Tips
The richest game in football is back with Derby and Aston Villa facing each other for promotion to the Premier League. The play off final is often one of the most tense and emotional days of the football season and this year is set to be no different. After 3 years in the Championship, and a lot of money spent, Aston Villa are hoping to get back to the Premier League or they risk losing their star players to the top flight. Derby on the other hand are without Premier League action in 12 years, but Frank Lampard will want to cement his place in the management world with a promotion at his first attempt.
Derby County’s Recent Form
Derby’s Play Off Semi Final
Derby beat Leeds 4-3 on aggregate to become the first team to lose the first leg of a play off semi final at home and still reach Wembley. Frank Lampard’s side lost the opening leg at Pride Park 1-0 after Kemar Roofe’s second half goal. Leeds narrowly missed out on automatic promotion and were taking the tie back to Elland Road, with few pundits giving Derby any chance. In the second leg, Stuart Dallas gave Leeds a perfect start before Derby came out firing after the break. 3 goals in just 13 minutes gave Derby the lead in the tie for the first time. Dallas pulled another back for Leeds before Gaetano Berardi was sent off and the home side were reduced to 10 men. With both sides pushing for a winner, Jack Marriot benefited from a tired Leeds defence to chip the ball over Kiko Casilla and send Derby through. Derby become the first 6th place team to reach the play off final in 3 years and only the second since Blackpool in 2010.
Aston Villa’s Recent Form
Villa’s Play Off Semi Final
Villa needed extra time and penalties to see off 10 man West Brom in a close fought match at the Hawthorns. WBA looked to have taken control in the first leg but 2 late goals handed Villa a 2-1 lead heading into the next match. Again, West Brom took the lead in the first half when Craig Dawson headed in from Mason Holgate’s long throw. After the opening goal, Villa were the dominant side and had countless opportunities to draw level on the night. Chris Brunt’s late red card gave the away side another advantage, but they failed to capitalise. Extra time started just as normal time had finished, with Villa by far the most dangerous side. After 210 minutes of football, the sides couldn’t be separated and the tie went to penalties. WBA missed their first two attempts as Villa got off to a perfect start and take a 3-1 lead. Albert Adomah’s miss gave West Brom some hope, but Tammy Abraham eventually scored to give Villa a win and take them to their second consecutive play off final.
Where’s The Value Bet?
In both meetings this season, Aston Villa have dominated against Derby with both a 3-0 and 4-0 win over their Midlands rivals. Despite both sides being in and around the play off places for most of the season, Derby couldn’t find a way to play around Villa’s defence. With stakes at their highest, don’t be surprised if Villa shut up shop and try to edge a close game at Wembley. The last play off final that saw both teams scoring was back in 2012, so it would not be a surprise to see a tight 1-0 or 2-0. With play off history pointing towards a tight game and Aston Villa having the edge this season, a Villa win to nil looks a likely outcome. At 13/5 on Bet UK’s online sportsbook, it’s quite a big price for something we’ve already seen twice this season.
Where to watch Derby v Aston Villa
Derby v Aston Villa will be shown live on Sky Sports from 3:00 on Monday 27th May.
Bet UK’s Headline Betting Tip
Villa were the inform team coming into the playoffs and they deserved to go through against West Brom. Expect them to finish the job at Wembley and spend next year in the Premier League.
League One Play Off Betting Tips
Charlton v Sunderland - 3:00 26th May - Sky Sports
Sunderland and Charlton meet again in a playoff final in a rematch of their 4-4 classic back in 1998. That was the last time Charlton reached Wembley, whereas this will be Sunderland’s second trip this season. Charlton’s late season form pushed them up to 3rd on the final day, but they struggled against Doncaster in the last round. On the other hand, Sunderland stuttered at the end of the season before edging past Portsmouth with a 1-0 win on aggregate. Although Charlton are the in form team in this one, it’s clear that Sunderland are the better side. At the start of the season, anything but promotion for the Black Cats would have been classed as a failure so this is Jack Ross’s last chance to achieve his goals. The odds are unsurprisingly quite close, but the added quality and experience that Sunderland have should see them go up.
League Two Play Off Betting Tips
Newport County v Tranmere Rovers - 3:00 25th May - Sky Sports
Both of the League Two play off semi finals were close, with only 4 goals scored across the two ties. Regardless, Newport and Tranmere are the two sides going to Wembley for the chance of promotion. Just like the semi finals, games between Newport and Tranmere have been very tight in recent meetings. Since 2014, the results have been 0-0, 1-1, 0-1 and 0-0, so don’t expect a thriller in this one. Both sides have performed well this season and in truth, it’s tough to choose between them. But if recent results are anything to go by, then this will be a close game with few goals. Instead of a winner, we’ll take a look at the goals market.
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*All odds correct at the time of writing.
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