PGA Championship Golf Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a math graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He’s now teamed up with Bet UK to bring you the latest golf betting tips for all events on the European and PGA Tours. For the latest PGA Championship betting odds, head over to Bet UK’s online sportsbook, where you will find golf betting odds for all events.
Last Week’s Results: In the British Masters, Robert Cobley correctly predicted that Marcus Kinhult would win at a huge price of 150/1.
Bethpage Black, Long Island, New York - Par 71 - 7,468 Yards
The second major championship is upon us already. Just a month after Tiger Woods captured his first Major in 10 years at a sensational Masters tournament, the world’s best players are heading to Farmingdale, and the infamous Black Course at Bethpage State Park, one hour drive east from the Big Apple.
Designed back in 1936, and one of five courses that sits on the Bethpage estate, the Black course (each is graded by colour), is by far the toughest, and has hosted a number of Major championships. Most recently it has been home to several Fedex Cup events including The Barclays back in 2012 and 2016. It is renowned in the US as one of the most severe tests of golf both there, and indeed in the World. At nearly 7,500 yards with four inch deep rough and tree lined fairways, Bethpage is a monumental beast to tame. The two majors to have been held there this century have been won by Tiger Woods (2002, -3) and Lucas Glover (2009, -4). As Glover and Ricky Barnes found when separating themselves, at one point by eight shots, from the field; once you get ahead at this course, it is very difficult for a chasing pack to hunt you down. Those that are able to bring their long game will only have won half the battle as the greens are heavily bunkered and are running at a lightning fast 13 on the stimp meter this week.
Last Five WInners:
2018: Brooks Koepka - -16
2017: Justin Thomas - -8
2016: Jimmy Walker - -14
2015: Jason Day - -20
2014 : Rory McIlroy - -16
The Market Leaders
Following his win at The Masters, combined with his US Open success here back in 2002, Tiger Woods goes into a Major as the market favourite for the first time in over a decade. At 9/1 he sits ahead of fellow American, and defending champion, Brooks Koepka (10/1) and Rory Mcilroy (10/1) who failed to show any real signs of form in his only showing since a disappointing 21st place finish at Augusta. Dustin Johnson also draws market support at 10/1.
Behind them, Justin Thomas (18/1), Justin Rose(18/1) and John Rahm (18/1) make up the remainder of the head of the market. Set close to New York, this venue brings some heavily partizan home support. British and European players might find the raucous crowds tough to handle, and as was the case at the 2016 Barclays and 2009 US Open, it might be tough to find a winner from outside of the United States. Patrick Reed won the 2016 Barclays here. I have tried though, and I can see a couple of likely contenders if the title is to leave home for the first time in 3 years.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
Dustin Johnson, runner up at The Masters five weeks ago, will arrive at Bethpage full of confidence at a venue that must surely be whetting his appetite. The long, soft, course suits few players in the same way it does the powerful American, and Johnson must see this as a huge opportunity for him to land his first ever PGA Championship. Dustin is hugely popular with the US crowds wherever he goes and, along with market favourite Woods, will be cheered on throughout the week.
At Augusta, he fell away early in round 4, similarly as he did at The Players, and some have been questioning his ability to close out tournaments. That should be ignored in these surroundings. Johnson undeniably has the game and the mental fortitude to overpower Bethpage in a way that no other in the field does. If he has a good week on the greens, Dustin Johnson could almost be unbeatable here. He also has a win and 3 top 5s in his last 6 starts, on top of a 3rd place finish at the 2012 Barclays at this venue. A win only bet is the recommendation with 5 Points win at 10/1.
Other Golf Betting Tips
As I have written previously on these blogs, Adam Scott is, for me, one of the game’s great underachievers. He has a sensational long game, but has often been let down on the greens; even with his now outlawed anchored putter that saw him win The Masters a few years back. That is now gone and Scott has recently been finding his way with the regulation length shaft, with mixed results. At The Masters Scott was able to post a top 20 finish without ever really appearing on the leaderboard with any menace. That was his last outing, but his second consecutive top 20 as he looks to move once again into contention for the biggest events.
Scott is one of the few players whose long game can stand up to almost any player on Tour; a theme amongst the selections this week. He hits it long and incredibly straight, which are both vital traits at Bethpage. Back in 2016 Scott posted a 4th place finish in what is likely to be a similar setup to this week as the PGA are unlikely to go hunting the type of carnage often produced by the USGA when this venue hosts their Open. He is therefore worthy of 2 Points e/w at 40/1.
Louis Oosthuizen is another that I feel may be able to handle the cauldron of Bethpage and the New York galleries to post a significant challenge this week. A Major winner already, Oosthuizen has showed very impressive form on his past visits to the Black course with finishes of 5th and 18th on the two occasions that The Barclays has been held here. He is also in great form having posted back to back top 10s before an admittedly disappointing 28th at The Masters last month. He has not played since.
When looking at the other contenders in this bracket, there are a lot I feel can be ruled out. These players are not priced based on their suitability to the, almost unique, test of Bethpage. Players like Jordan Spieth and Tommy Fleetwood (both 28/1) have so little chance of contending at this type of venue that just does not play to their strengths. Jordan Spieth, although improving will drop too many shots to contend and Fleetwood has the added complication of coming off the back of hosting last week. Oosthuizen is fresh, and the venue suits him entirely. I will be having 2 Points e/w at 50/1.
Thailand’s Kiradech Aphibarnrat is a very hard player to gauge. Coming into this week in Texas he had almost no form, then suddenly he produces a final round 65 for a top 10 finish, and looked almost effortless in doing so. Aphibarnrat has a great long game, and when he gets hot can shoot as low numbers as anyone in the field. That doesn’t happen often. He has more missed cuts than top 20s this year, and that is usually the case for him, however he has been adjusting to life stateside and the US crowds have taken a liking to him. If Aphibarnrat can maintain some momentum going into next week a place is not out of the question, and there is value to having 1 point e/w at 200/1.
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