The Northern Trust Golf Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers.
Liberty National Golf Course - Jersey City, New Jersey - Par 71, 7,400 Yards
This week we are off to New York for the Northern Trust as it moves into its third year having taken over sponsorship of the Fedex Cup Series opening event from Barclays, and formerly from Buick. It continues to amaze me how the PGA Tour and other World golf bodies have got the scheduling so wrong for the fans. We are straight off the back of a World Golf Championship, which in itself followed on from The Open, and already into the season ending fun of four playoff tournaments. Coming in early August it is staggering, and the once annual golf season now seems to be wedged into a 6 month window between April and September.
The European Tour has felt this the hardest with once high profile tournaments such as the Made in Denmark being relegated to a Wednesday start and Challenge Tour status as the top players are either in The US or too burnt out to travel to Denmark. I hope this is reviewed for 2021 and some semblance of balance can be resumed.
Back to this week, and Liberty National; a polarising venue just a mile from the Statue of Liberty in New York State. Known for raucous crowds, particularly in relation to the Presidents Cup two years ago, this venue provides a spectacle both in terms of the golf and the atmosphere, but it is not widely popular amongst the players. Following the 2009 Barclays, won by American Heath Slocum, there was a lot of unrest, particularly around the greens. This led to a complete redesign of 12 holes prior to the 2013 staging won by Adam Scott, and this seems to have placated many of the concerns.
The course itself is a long open parkland venue that is often exposed to the elements, and one that provides a real test to the players. The fairways are an average width, but the rough is penal. Even more so the further offline you are with four gradients of fescue and bluegrass. The green complexes are small and slopey, usually measuring above 12 on the stimp. This makes the approach play and accurate irons imperative to success. Players hitting less than 75% of greens in regulation this week will struggle to contend.
Last Five Winners:
2018: Bryson Dechambeau - -18
2017: Dustin Johnson - -13
2016: Patrick Reed - -9
2015: Jason Day - -19
2014 : Hunter Mahan - -14
The Market Leaders
Brooks Koepka (8/1) comes in as the market leader this week following his triumph in Memphis at the WGC Fedex St Jude. Some had questioned his desire to win away from the biggest events, but those concerns were emphatically put away as he overcame a final day deficit to breeze past World number 3 Rory McIlroy and claim the title. Koepka has now cemented himself as the World’s leading player, well ahead of both Rory and Dustin Johnson and is currently hard to oppose in any market. This is his first competitive visit to Liberty National, but the venue should in theory suit him well and, although I won't be backing him, it’s hard to put others off. The price seems fair.
Behind Brooks is McIlroy (10/1) who put to bed that one bad round at Portrush and continued on in the impressive vein of form that he has been in for most of the season last week in Memphis. It was unfortunate for him that he couldn’t banish all the demons from that Thursday at The Open with the victory, but be in no doubt that his game is good enough to win at this or any other venue as the season draws to a close. Liberty National is a ball strikers course (those where Adam Scott wins often are) and Rory ticks that box as well as any. The wind may be a factor against him, and for that reason I feel he is perhaps a little short in this quality of field. His only other appearance here was a 19th placed finish at the 2013 Barclays.
The next best in the market are John Rahm (14/1) and Justin Thomas (16/1). Rahm looked so good for 27 holes in Memphis before falling away, largely one suspects through the fatigue that he complained of all week. He is another that could have the game to suit Liberty National and if he’s 100% ready to go I think Rahm will contend strongly. Thomas has been on a steadily improving curve lately with top 12 finishes in his last three events. I feel that the penal rough, particularly around the greens, may snag his chances and although the price is competitive, it isn’t for me. Neither Rahm or Thomas has yet played competitively at Liberty National.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
The first tip this week is American Bryson Dechambeau. Dechambeau is a serial winner and an incredible ball striker, just one that lately hasn’t been in his best form. A missed cut at The Open was followed up by a rather unremarkable 48th place at the St Jude, however he had posted consecutive top 10s before that, including a 2nd to Matthew Wolf at TPC Twin Cities in the 3M Open. This venue is very different to that one but to contend Bryson only needs a few small items to turn in his favour. He outperforms the majority of the market leaders in strokes gained tee to green, and putting; his weaknesses have come around the greens. With the rough so thick this week, that is a substantial leveller. If Dechambeau can hit around 80% of the greens; a number well within his reach, we could see him take this title on Sunday. A bit of wind won’t hurt his chances either. I suggest backing last year’s winner (at Ridgewood Country Club) with 3 points e/w at 40/1.
Other Betting Tips
Next I am looking at the reigning US Open champion who finished 2nd at Liberty National on is only other appearance here in 2013. At this price Gary Woodland seems very good value to me. Yes, his form since that win at Pebble Beach has dipped, but he has the game most suited of any player to this venue, and comes in fresh having sat out last week on the back of a disappointing final round 77 at the WGC the week before which dropped him down to a finish of 58th.
The expectations are off Woodland’s shoulders and he should be able to enjoy this week and venue. He has a high ball flight, but one that he can adapt to the conditions as he did so well at Pebble. I see a lot of synergies with this course and that venue, and feel that he is worth 2 points e/w at 66/1.
A bit out of left field on the third pick this week, and I’m again drawing on the course synergies with a links venue to back up the selection of 27 year old Canadian Corey Conners. Conners has posted top 25s the last two weeks on venues that I would say are a little too “easy” for him. Earlier in the season Conners posted a 2nd and a 3rd at venues where the winning score was less than 20 under par, and that will certainly be the case this week. He is also strikingly similar to Dechambeau in that his short game has been letting him down disproportionately to the field; a stat I expect largely negated this week. A Conners win this week would be a shock, but at 6 places i can certainly find enough value to have 1 point e/w at 200/1.
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*All odds from Bet UK’s online betting markets correct at the time of writing.
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