John Deere Classic Golf Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. Hes now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers. Since he started his blog at Bet UK, Cobley is +629.8 points in profit.
TPC Deere Run - Silvis, Illinois - Par 71, 7,268 Yards
After several weeks at new venues, the PGA Tour returns to an old favourite as TPC Deere Run maintains it’s slot as the pre Open Championship venue for this week’s John Deere Classic in Illinois. 95 miles South East of the town of Cedar Rapids, this DA Weibring 1999 design is one of the easiest venues on the Tour. The 78 bunkers and 4 water hazards (realistically in play on 5 holes) are largely avoidable for these players meaning there is very little protection at a venue that usually yields very low scoring.
Greens in regulation are crucial, as is a hot putter in what is essentially a competition to see who can make the most birdies with very few bogies around. Last year’s winning score was nearly 30 under par, and with a spot at The Open available to the winner, this largely inexperienced field will be going all out to take the title this week at Deere Run.
Last Five Winners:
2018: Michael Kim - -27
2017: Bryson Dechambeau - -18
2016: Ryan Moore - -22
2015: Jordan Spieth - -20
2014 : Brian Harman - -22
The Market Leaders
There is a strange feel to the market this week at the John Deere with all players being available for a price of at least 20/1 with various operators, making this only the second time this season that the win chance of the favourite is less than 5%. That said, there is some great young talent on the PGA Tour at the moment, and any one of the market leaders could lay strong claims for selection this week.
Young 21 year old Norwegian rookie Viktor Hovland (15/1) takes the market edge following 3 top 15 finishes in his last 4 events. Hovland is long, and the signs are that he is also a streaky putter. His chances this week are likely to be dependent on how good he is on the greens, but if he has a better than average putting week it is hard to see him not contending here. Behind Hovland sits last week’s runner up Collin Morikawa (16/1). That second place finish was on the back of another top 10 finish on the Tour last month, and he has impressively managed to make every cut this season, in what is also his rookie year. Morikawa is another who is capable of making a large number of birdies, and will likely feature heavily if he can stay out of trouble.
Behind them we have last week’s winner Matthew Wolff (21/1) and Chile’s Joaquin Niemann (21/1). Both 20 year olds are similar profiles to the market leaders, and cannot be ruled out in what should be a thrilling tournament with so much exceptional young talent on show.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
In such a difficult week to pick the winner, I have decided to edge towards experience over youth and select 32 year old 2014 John Deere Classic winner Brian Harman. Harman clearly has great course form with a 10th place on his last visit to add to that victory, and his recent form is also highly encouraging with 2 top 10s in the last 3 weeks proving that he is coming into form at just the right time for an assault on Deere Run.
Harman is one of the straightest and most consistent players on Tour, he is often compared to multiple John Dere Classic winners Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson, and his game should fit perfectly. Harman will hit most fairways and greens, and it is all about whether he can convert the 30 or so birdies necessary to take the title at this venue. On recent form I suggest that he can, and feel that the value this week sits with Harman to usurp the young guns and convert his first victory of 2019. I suggest 3 points e/w at 22/1.
Other Golf Betting Tips
My second selection this week is another 32 year old American, this time in the shape of Bronson Burgoon. Burgoon has been steadily improving this season, making 3 of his last 4 cuts and is another very solid player who should be in their element at Deere Run. This was the venue that provided his highest finish in the 2018 season when he finished a, somewhat unfortunate, runner up to eventual winner Michael Kim, and I feel Burgoon is well equipped to take the next step this week and right the wrong from 12 months ago with a victory.
In a field with lots of exciting young talent, I feel that many of the more seasoned pros will be thinking that this provides the perfect opportunity for them to step up to the mark and claim victory as many of their more illustrious peers are over in the UK preparing for The Open. Burgoon fits the bill perfectly and I shall be having 2 points e/w at 64/1.
Venezualan Jhonattan Vegas has not won on Tour for several years having had his breakthrough win on another very low scoring course in the desert at the 2011 Bob Hope Classic. Vegas is a hot and streaky player who can go very low when his game is on. Although his form of late has been patchy, he has a top 10 to his name this season, and a 3rd place behind Harman at this venue back in 2014 to demonstrate how well it suits his game. Since then, Vegas has only played Deere Run once having not competed for the last 3 years which is strange considering his obvious synergies here and to other venues where he has been successful.
Although missing his last 3 cuts does cause some legitimate concerns, Matt Wolff showed last week that when a player gets hot at the right venue anything is possible, and I have that feeling this week about Vegas and shall be backing him with 2 points e/w at 67/1.
The final selection for this week is American Wes Roach. Roach has little form at this venue having made one of 2 cuts and failing to challenge, but his recent form and style of course should suit him well, and the price is far too big. In his last 5 starts, Roach has quietly managed to achieve 3 top 10s including a 3rd place 2 weeks ago, form that seems to have gone largely under the radar looking at his price this week. He is as capable as most in this field of going low, and, if he can avoid trouble, we will likely see 4 rounds in the 60s which should put Roach right in contention. He is value with 1 point e/w at 175/1.
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