Written By Robert Cobley - 19th February 2020
WGC Mexico Championship Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers.
Club De Golf Chapultepec - Naucalpan de Juárez, Mexico - Par 71, 7345 Yards.
The first World Golf Championship event of the year is upon us already as an eclectic mix of 72 of the Worlds best players descend on Club De Golf Chapultepec some ten miles northwest of Mexico City. Designed by Willie Smith in 1921, and having undergone a significant upgrade in 1972 under the stewardship of Percy Clifford, Chapultepec is a deceiving monster. Although over 7000 yards on the card, being so far above sea level, the real yardage is closer to 6,700, and it provides an entirely different test accordingly. From the tee, the players require accuracy over distance on a quirky, tree lined, parklands course where any errant shots are usually punished. The fairways are kikuyu which provides another challenge, and only the purest of ball strikers typically navigate themselves around this challenging setup.
They are small and slopey, many are two tiered, and they are made up of poa annua as we saw last week at Riviera. That means that they often spike up a little during the day, and require concentration, along with a little bit of luck for the players to shoot low scores here. The key metrics this week are strokes gained tee to green, and scrambling. A good strategic player with a tidy short game will be likely to contend.
Last Three Winners:
|2017||Dustin Johnson||- 14|
The Market Leaders
Following yet another top 5 finish last week, Rory McIlroy (11/2) arrives in Mexico once again as the market favourite following two top tens on his previous visits to Chapultepec. Rory is in undeniably great form, and co-lead going into the final round last week until an errant approach to the fifth yielded a careless triple bogey and effectively ended his chances. I wasn't too bullish about Rory last week, but i think he justifies the price far more here in a reduced field, and amongst less illustrious company in an event where a large number of the biggest names have decided, for whatever reason, not to attend. Rory plays shorter courses well, and can vary up his game from the tee. The short game is a concern, but Rory should set up a lot of chances this week. On a course where he opened last year with a blistering 63, he is not to be ignored.
Dustin Johnson (13/2) was another who fell away right after putting himself into contention last week, and the two time winner of the WGC Mexico is really starting to look back to his best as the 2020 campaign kicks off in earnest. Although not the profile that would immediately be thought of to suit this course, Johnson is deceptively strong on shorter courses. He manages his long game well without taking too many uncalculated risks, and he always puts well on poa annua greens, so the fit here is not surprising. The year that Dustin didn't win, he still finished in the top 6, and another challenge this year seems highly likely.
John Rahm (9/1) and Justin Thomas (10/1) make up the remainder of the favourites in this reduced field; both in size and strength. Rahm would usually be leading the charge at a WGC, but his relatively poor record here (finishes of 3, 23, 40) seems to have spooked the market somewhat. Rahm finished outside of the top 10 for the first time in three months last week at Riviera, and there is a risk that he is burning himself out a little going into the hot part of the season before the Masters in a few weeks. That, however, could all change, and with a 3rd place here, and with the ability to tackle any venue, Rahm cannot be discounted. Valderrama is a similar setup where he was not fancied, but he managed a 2nd place finish there. Justin Thomas has three top 10s here in three years, and although he missed the cut last week he is another who could well turn up and challenge again having already won this season. Shorter courses are generally not to his main strengths, but his record here speaks for itself. I won't be tipping him as i think there are better suited favourites, and better priced long shots but he is nonetheless one to be wary of.
Rob’s Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
Only three players have won more PGA Tour events over the past two years than Bryson Dechambeau, and the young American is showing glimpses of his best form once again having posted four under par rounds for a top 5 finish at last week's Genesis Open. Dechambeau has struggled around the turn of the year, but that result was his second top 10 finish in his last three events, and he seems to have flown under the radar this week, and comes in at a very appealing price. Last year Bryson struggled to a 5th placed finish but did close with a three under par round of 68, and with this type of form it is easy to see him getting back into contention.
Dechambeau will need to use his brain as well as his new found braun around Chapultepec, but a solid putting week could make the price look big for a player of such talents who is realistically one of the top 5 players in this field. With the front 4 taking up such significant market share, Bryson is a bet for me with 3 points e/w at 25/1.
Other Betting Tip
Australian Cameron Smith picked up his first win in the desert a few weeks ago, and is another who seems to be heavily overpriced this week. Smith is a great manufacturer of the ball, and he should be able to strategise his game to fit this venue perfectly. Last season Smith shot all four rounds in the 60s on his way to a top six finish, and with his recent form so strong, and the obvious course synergy, i would have expected him to be nearer to half of this price. Smith is straight off the tee, has a great wedge game, and if he has a strong putting week he could well end up in contention. In a reduced field of under 80 players, and with half of those realistically unlikely to challenge, he represents real value, and i recommend having 2 points e/w at 90/1.
Following a rolling profit of 463 points in 2019, I am looking for an even better 2020. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event on the European and PGA Tours, and suggest a suitable staking plan.
|European Tour||-53 points|
|PGA Tour||+60 points|
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