Wales Open Betting Tips

Wales Open Betting Tips

Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers.

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The Course

The Twenty Ten Course, Celtic Manor - Newport, Wales - Par 71, 7354 Yards

The Twenty Ten course at Celtic Manor is once again the venue for the Wales Open following on from last week's exhilarating event. Best known for hosting a thrilling four day Ryder Cup a decade ago, but this timeless Ross McMurray creation is a suitable setting as the fourth leg of the UK swing kicks off in Wales on Thursday. The twenty Ten is an amalgamation of nine new holes, and nine holes from the old Robert Trent Jones II designed Wentworth Hills course. The dramatic scenery is undeniable as the course winds its way around the River Usk, and water is an ever present hazard being in play on ten of the holes.

A largely long, flat, and exposed course which was designed purposefully for matchplay ahead of the Ryder Cup, some of the players have been critical of its suitability for stroke play events such as this given the extreme risk and reward scenarios in play on several holes. The criticism seems weak to me. Players who are intelligent and able to strategise will come out on top, and it offers another dimension to the event that is often lacking on the more straightforward venues in play week in, week out. That is born out by the strong profile of winners here in the past with players such as Ryder Cuppers Luiten, Colsaerts and Donaldson being successful in the past.

The course is varied with a links like feel to the opening six holes, followed by a stretch around the many lakes on site before the field arrives at the drivable par 4 15th. This hole has a bail out area to the right for anyone not wanting to take on the green, and again provides an excellent hole in any format. The final four holes are very demanding. Players will need a good solid long game this week, and I expect good ball strikers to challenge.

Recent Winners:

Year Winner Score
2020 Sam Horsfield -18
2014 Joost Luiten -14
2013 Gregory Bourdy -8
2012 Tongchai Jaidee -6
2011 Alex Noren -9

The Market Leaders

A similar, though slightly stronger, field has assembled this week at Celtic Manor for the Wales Open which is held over the same 18 holes as last week's Celtic Classic. Thomas Pieters (11/1) is the market favourite having pushed the leaders all the way last week to a respectable third place finish, and Pieters is certainly the best player in the field when everything clicks. Having been off for six months before that event, the third place finish was highly respectable and the market is right to show him the respect he deserves. Pieters' game is ideally suited to the length and challenges of the Twenty Ten and he will be hard to beat if he maintains his form over the next few days.

Last week's winner was one of our selections, and Sam Horsfield (12/1) and there is little to suggest that the Tour's in form player won't be contending once again here. Horsfield is breaking all sorts of records for the number of birdies made over consecutive rounds, and anything close to the way that he played last week will represent a great chance for the fiery young Englishman. The fact that he followed up his last win with a missed cut is a small but relevant concern as is the increased quality of the field. Li Haotong (14/1) arrives in Europe on the back of an impressive 17th place finish at the USPGA Championship where he was the sole halfway leader before somewhat predictably falling away over the weekend. The conditions and challenges in the wind and rain of the Welsh hills will be an entirely different challenge however on his first visit to this venue. He is hard to support on that basis alone.

Rob’s Golf Betting Tips

Headline Betting Tip

Thomas Pieters: 11/1 To Win

After the success of last week where we had 1st and 2nd as well as our 150/1 headline pick in the top 10, I have again looked at players with strong long games, and as importantly those who can contend with what are going to be tough and blustery conditions in Newport. To that end I have had to pick two big hitting Belgians, and Thomas Pieters ticks all the boxes having come 3rd last week and being in the top 5 at the end of every round. Pieters long game is near flawless when he hits the ball like he did last week, and with a reduced winning score expected in tougher conditions here, that is even more pivotal to his chances of success. The Ryder Cup hero of 2016 has a piercing ball flight that should cut through the winds and the rest of his game looked in great shape around the Twenty Ten just a few days ago. He has a terrific chance here. 4 points e/w @ 11/1.

Other Betting Tips

Nicolas Colsaerts: 66/1 To Win

Nicholas Colsaerts was tipped by many last week but ultimately disappointed by finishing outside the top 60 on the back of a 9th the week before an Hanbury Manor. That display has led to the powerful Belgian being somewhat overlooked in this follow up event despite his previous success here (4th on his most recent visit before last week) and in such suitable conditions where braun is going to play such a significant part, I don't understand there being less interest this week. Although the end result was admittedly poor, Colsaerts coasted over the weekend as he was out of contention, and he is someone that raises their game when there is a sniff of victory. A good start this week and Nicolas should be right in contention. He is a good solid bet with 2 points e/w at 66/1.

Callum Shinkwin: 80/1 To Win

Callum Shinkwin came close to producing a fantastic result for us last week. Leading at half way and placing going into the last round, Shinkwin could only shoot 2 under par to drop agonisingly outside of the places, but I believe he is worth supporting again this week at the price. Callum's strengths lie almost exclusively in his fantastic long game. He can carry the ball huge distances, plays well in wet and windy conditions, and has looked in good form with some flashes of real promise in the last couple of events including a top 30 at the Forest of Arden and again with his top 10 finish here last week. I was fortunate enough to spend the final round of the 2017 Scottish Open with Callum when his double bogey 7 down the last led to a playoff which he lost to Rafa Cabrera Bello. What I saw first hand in that round was the way he handles British golf, and the risk and reward element which should be very much to his advantage this week.

All of the par 5s, and two of the par 4s are within reach for Shinkwin this week, and with his aggressive type of golf I am in no doubt about how he will take on the Twenty Ten this week. The former top amateur boxer is no stranger to being in the heat of the battle, and in this field he has one of his best chances of the year to land a long overdue victory. I am backing him with 2 points e/w at 80/1.

2020 P&L

Following a rolling profit of 463 points in 2019, I am looking for an even better 2020. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event on the European and PGA Tours, and suggest a suitable staking plan.

Tour Points
European Tour -38 points
PGA Tour +33 points
Total -5 points