Valspar Championship Tips

Valspar Championship Golf Betting Tips

Valspar Championship Golf Betting Tips

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Rob Cobley’s Valspar Championship Tips

The Course

The Copperhead Course, Innisbrook - Palm Harbor, Florida - 7,209 Yards. Par 71

The PGA Tour remains in Florida this week and heads to Innisbrook, and one of the more challenging and unpredictable tracks at the Copperhead course. The unpredictability applies mostly to the greens. This is, on the whole, a ball strikers paradise, however, it is not unusual for a player to miss several very short putts per round on the fast, hard to read, Bermuda putting surfaces.

Almost uniquely, Copperhead has 5 par 3s & par 5s amongst its make up, however, the latter does not necessarily make for low scoring, with par being a good return for any player on any hole. Patience and a precise iron game are the keys to success at Copperhead, with length off the tee almost irrelevant and short hitters are often flung into the limelight at Innisbrook with the likes of Hadwin, Furyk, Streelman and Donald winning in recent years. The typical winning score is around 10 under par as it was last year for England’s Paul Casey.

Last Five Winners:

Year Winner Score
2020 Cancelled -
2019 Paul Casey -8
2018 Paul Casey -10
2017 Adam Hadwin -14
2016 Charl Schwartzel -7

The Market Leaders

An exceptionally strong feld has assembled this week at the Valspar as individual stroke play resumes at Innisbrook. Justin Thomas (19/1) leads the market alongside an out of form Dustin Johnson (9/1). Thomas has also played some sketchy golf with no top 20 finishes since his win in Mexico a couple of months ago, whilst Johnson has just one top 20 in 13 months. Neither seems red hot value. Both players have as many missed cuts as top 10s here (one of each) and it's hard to see that they represent good betting options in such a deep field.

Patrick Reed (16/1) comes next alongside Corey Connors (16/1). Reed has two runners up finishes here in six starts and arrives in solid form after a top 10 at Augusta. He could contend. Connors is one of the most in-form players on Tour with top 15 finishes in five of his last six starts, and Copperhead should serve him very well. He is a strong iron player who should set up a lot of chances around this tough setup, and he ranks in the top 10 for scrambling so far this season which is always key here.

Elsewhere, Victor Hovland (18/1) will look to put behind him a very disappointing team event last week at the Zurich Classic. His individual play was good, but the Danish team were unable to get going at all in the foursomes as they finished last of those who made the cut. This is Hovland's first appearance here. I think it will eventually be one that suits him well, but it's a step into the unknown to back him this week, and I won't be doing so.

Rob’s Golf Betting Tips

Headline Betting Tip

Louis Oosthuizen: 30/1 To Win

Louis Oosthuizen missed out on his first career victory on US soil last week in heartbreaking circumstances as he and partner Charl Schwartzel lost the Zurich Classic in a playoff after Louis drove the ball into the water on 18. That win would have meant a lot to Louis whose wife flew in to see if he could get that first win. He now heads back to his adopted home State of Florida and looks in great shape to challenge here at The Valspar.

Make no mistake, Louis carried his team last week with some excellent golf; in keeping with his recent form which has also seen him notch a 6th at The Masters in recent weeks. Louis has a record of 7,16,2 in his last three starts here and there are few more complete golf courses capable of challenging the best players in the World, which will suit him down to the ground. The price is acceptably short for a player that has relatively few international wins to his name, and it's impossible not to see a good week for Louis. I have backed him with 3 Points e/w at 30/1.

Other Tip

Brandt Snedeker: 100/1 To Win

Brandt Snedeker is another who carried his partner (Richie Werenski) last week at the Zurich. That came as little surprise given his excellent 6th at the Houston Open a few weeks earlier, and "The Sned" looks set for a great 2021. In his last seven starts on the Copperhead Course, Snedeker has made every cut with a best placed finish of 4th. Snedeker is another beautiful iron player, and has contended on similar courses to Oosthuizen such as here, PGA West, and Augusta National where both have finished runner up. Snedeker looks an excellent value selection, and I will be having 2 Points e/w at 100/1.

2021 P&L

Following a rolling profit of 300 points for the 2019 & 2020 seasons, I am looking for a great 2021 and have some great bets lined up for events throughout the year on both the PGA and European Tours. Each week I will pick between two to four selections at each event and suggest a suitable staking plan.

Tour Points
European Tour -32
PGA Tour +46
Total +14