2020 US Open Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers. For the latest golf betting odds for the US Open, make sure to head over to Bet UK’s online betting and live in-play betting markets.
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Rob Cobley’s US Open Betting Tips
The West Course, Winged Foot - Mamaroneck, New York - Par 70, 7,477 Yards
The year's second and penultimate Major is upon us as the players descend once again upon New York, and the long established and prestigious venue of Winged Foot.
This will be the sixth US Open to be staged at Winged Foot - an A.W Tillinghast designed masterpiece - that was restored by Gill Hanse between 2016 and 2018. It was last used for this event in 2006, when Australia's Geoff Ogilvy won his one and only major championship as a number of players blew their chance of winning including Colin Montgomerie who infamously took a six from the centre of the 18th fairway after pushing a 7 iron into the right rough to miss the playoff by a stroke.
With flat but narrow fairways, thick rough (up to six inches deep) and Tilly's infamously contoured, well-bunkered, raised greens, measuring in at almost 7,500 yards, the par 70 West Course is an absolute brute.
The par four opening hole was the hardest hole on the course in 2006, averaging 4.471, and at the time, the ninth was the longest par four ever used in a major championship. The par five 12th measured a whopping 640 yards, averaging 5.24, and the only other par five, the fifth, was the only hole to average below par for the week (4.65). Tiger Woods missed the cut in 2006, his first ever weekend off at a major championship, and Ogilvy won with a five-over-par 285 total.
As an indication as to just how hard Winged Foot is, when Billy Casper won the US Open here in 1959, he laid up on the par three third all four days - getting up-and-down for par on every occasion. Great long irons and a solid game from the tee will be key this week, and i think there are a couple of players at the top of the market who really stand out.
Last Five Winners:
The Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson (15/2), fresh from his maiden Fedex Cup victory, leads the market at Winged Foot this week. WIth two second places, and two wins, in his last four events it is easy to see why the market has reacted so favourably to Johnson who had been previously in somewhat mediocre form for several weeks. DJ's length is his key strength, and his driving accuracy stats have gone wild meaning that he's been playing a different game to the majority of the field over the past few weeks. The 2016 US Open Champion can contend and win on tight, tough, set ups, and there is nothing really to suggest that he won't like Winged Foot on his maiden appearance here. For me, the major challenge could be how the designer has, to a degree, tricked up the course; particularly around the raised greens. I think that it might be a very tough mental challenge, and I think that could be Dustin's downfall this week. For me the price is too short.
John Rahm (9/1) and Justin Thomas (12/1) made up the places behind DJ at East Lake last week, and both have undoubtedly significant Major Championship pedigree as they search for their first US Open titles. Both are mentally strong, and fantastically accurate long iron players, which we know from the 2006 event is going to be incredibly significant this week. I expect one or both to be challenging for the title come Sunday.
Rory Mcilroy (14/1) has posted top 10s in his last couple of events, including a strong early run at East Lake a fortnight ago before what has become his trademark weekend slowdown saw him slip back into 8th place. Rory is a player that when on form would be a go to bet at this type of venue, but again the design could be a big hindrance as Tilly's nuances take away from players with any level of mental fragility. I expect Rory to be a long way from contention this week. Zander Schauffele (14/1) has been increasingly consistent and secured a very impressive runners up spot alongside Justin Thomas behind Johnson in the final Fedex standings. He was heavily backed at Harding Park for the PGA and went close, but is another that the price seems too short on. He could go close but for me 14/1 just sees him as too little value to back.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tips
I've been unable to separate my two big fancies this week at the top of the market, and accordingly I've had to recommend joint headline tips between John Rahm and Justin Thomas. Rahm has been back to his best over the past month with a win and three other finishes inside the top 6 and comes to a venue that should suit him perfectly. Aside from the obvious strengths throughout, but particularly in his long game, Rahm is one of the best distance control players on Tour, and that is going to be absolutely critical around these tight, well guarded putting surfaces this week. The leaderboard from 2006 had the likes of Montgomerie, Ogilvy, and Furyk at the top and they all represent an incredibly similar profile to Rahm in terms of clean, consistent, ball striking.
Rahm is also a mentally tough competitor having adapted his game to win at tough venues like Valderrama which really don't suit him. Coing here he should have a real edge on the the 30% of the field that are strong enough to win, and then there's the other 70% who we can almost certainly rule out of challenging on account that they, understandably, won't be able to cope with the level of difficulty in front of them. If i had just one bet this week it would be Rahm, and i will be backing him with 5 points @ 10/1.
Justin Thomas is an incredibly similar player to Rahm, and although that could represent an "all eggs in one basket" scenario, I'm so confident about the course setup and likely winner's profile this week that I'm happy to throw in two very similar contenders. Thomas is another imperious long iron player who isn't adverse to challenging, and winning, on the toughest courses out there. He has a solid but unspectacular game from the tee. Accuracy trumps length for him, and it's a similar story from the fairway where he is able to hit greens from almost anywhere and that is going to put him in a very strong position here on Winged Foot's West Course.
Justin has a fairly average US Open record with just one top 10 in five outings but he has won the PGA Championship on similar setups and I'm not overly concerned by that stat. His game was in good shape at the Tour Championship last time out, and his win at the St Jude on a tough course the week before the PGA at Harding Park was so impressive. If Thomas brings his A Game, which i have every expectation that he will, then he is a nailed on contender this week. 5 points e/w at 12/1.
Outsider Betting Tip
Justin Harding has spent the last couple of weeks in New York getting himself ready for this event following a few average weeks following the resumption of the European Tour. Harding is a player that seems to save his best for the big occasion having finished in the top ten in two Majors last year, and with ball striking at a premium, and South African players typically contending more than they should at the tougher venues Harding seems worth a bet at this price. 1 point e/w @ 300/1.
Following a rolling profit of 463 points in 2019, I am looking for an even better 2020. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event on the European and PGA Tours, and suggest a suitable staking plan.
|European Tour||-76 points|
|PGA Tour||+51 points|
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