US Open Golf Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers. For the latest golf betting odds for US Open, make sure to head over to Bet UK’s online betting and live in-play betting markets.
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Rob Cobley’s US Open Tips
The South Course, Torrey Pines - San Diego, California, USA - 7,700 Yards, Par 70
The US Open arrives at a familiar venue this year with Torrey Pines on California's Monterey Peninsula the host course for one of the biggest events on the calendar.
The South Course at Torrey Pines is one of the finest courses in the USA and, as the honour roll shows, has hosted some of the greatest champions in golf. Opened in 1957, and on a clifftop overlooking the Pacific Ocean, the South Course was redesigned by Reese Jones back in 2001 who lengthened it to the brutally difficult 7,700-yard beast that it is today. A proper all-round test of golf, the South requires the players to hit the ball straight from the tee, shape it both ways and punishes any bad shots. From the tee, bigger hitters are at an advantage purely due to the length of the course and the fact that long drives make the course more manageable. There is, however, no substitute for accuracy and errant drives will find the thick rough and dangerously-placed fairway bunkering that is especially prevalent over the back nine holes. This has been made all the tougher for the Open.
The greens on the South Course are not vastly different to those on the easier North which is not in play this week, and are not where it really shows its teeth. They are large, fast, and slopey poa annua that can pick up spike marks and become more challenging to putt on through the afternoon. The greenside bunkering is strong, and the rough around the greens is deep. If players are approaching from the rough, or even from the wrong side of the fairway, they are well-advised to be conservative. Double bogeys or worse are not uncommon here, and such a stiff test of golf invariably produces a high calibre winner.
The biggest advantage this week is with the bigger hitters. There will be a lot of hits and gauge from the thick rough onto the large, forgiving, greens, and the top of the market is likely to produce the winner this year.
Last Five Winners
Year | Winner | Score 2020 | Bryson Dechambeau | -6 2019 | Gary Woodland | -13 2018 | Brooks Koepka | +1 2017 | Brooks Koepka | -16 2016 | Dustin Johnson | -4
The Market Leaders
John Rahm (17/2) has a win and three other top-five finishes in his career starts at Torrey Pines, and with just one finish outside the top 20, the Spaniard looks a strong market favourite. He was on the verge of winning two weeks ago when he was forced to withdraw going into the final round with a six-stroke lead, and he will be keen to put that behind him and take the title here on familiar turf. Rahm's US Open record isn't great with more missed cuts than top 10s, and I think the adjusted Torrey setup might work against him here. For that reason, I will be looking slightly deeper.
Behind Rahm is a trio of big-hitting Americans that I really like the look of. Dustin Johnson (18/1), Brooks Koepka (18/1) and Bryson Dechambeau (16/1) between them have the last four US Open titles, and it's hard for me to see that not remaining the case after this week. Dechambeau looks the weakest with his comparably poor recent form and his previous tribulations at Torrey.
Rory Mcilroy (20/1) represents the best European chance on a course where he has gone close several times. He has been playing well of late but I think the tough rough might prove too penal unless he has an exceptional driving week and I am therefore happy to look elsewhere. This event has an American winner written all over it for me.
Rob's Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
My headline selection for the year's penultimate Major is the man who I maintain is the world's best player when all are in form, and he showed last week that his game is in excellent shape arriving here. Dustin was 2nd going into the weekend before falling away, but that is really of little concern given that all eyes were undoubtedly turned to this week.
Johnson has a best-placed finish of 3rd here in regular Tour events, and will be even more suited to the challenging setup of a US Open at this famed venue. He will have a huge advantage from the tee and will love the large uncomplicated putting surfaces. The speed is up from the Farmers Insurance which is played in February, and that again will be significantly to his advantage. I would have him as the strong market favourite, and I am happy to throw my weight behind him with a win only bet of 8 Points Win @ 18 /1.
Other Betting Tips
I considered Brooks Koepka as my headline pick, and was only slightly persuaded to go with Dustin Johnson based on his better course form, but make no doubt Brooks will be thereabouts this week. There are no players on Tour that raise their game to the same degree that Koepka does when it comes to the biggest events, and whatever his past results here (MC, MC, 58), the setup this week is perfect.
If it weren't for the exceptional golf of Phil Mickelson, Brooks would be coming in here as the PGA Champion and probably a single figure favourite, however that not coming off has afforded us this excellent opportunity here at a marvellous price. I will have 8 Points Win @ 18/1.
My final selection is a bit of a long shot, but Dylan Frittelli has been regular on Major Championship leaderboards with two top 10 finishes in the last five Majors. He also competed at the WGC Matchplay recently where he finished 9th in a field of the top 64 players in the World. His long game is his strength, and that is a necessity to combat the challenge of Torrey Pines, and this price doesn't seem in keeping with his true chances. He is worth an each way bet with 2 Points e/w @ 300/1.
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