UK Championship Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers. For the latest golf betting odds for the UK Championship, make sure to head over to Bet UK’s betting and live betting markets.
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The Belfry - Sutton Coldfield, England - Par 72, 7,233 Yards
The Belfry, a famous Ryder Cup and British golfing institution, returns to the European Tour circuit after a 12 year absence as it hosts the final event of the "UK swing" with the UK Championship. The Belfry is made up of three courses; The Derby, the PGA, and The Brabazon which is where this week's event will be played. I have had the privilege of playing The Brabazon several times, and i would describe it as a challenging but relatively dull test; similar to the great majority of inland UK venues with the possible exceptions of Woburn, Sunningdale, and even Woodhall Spa. There is little natural protection although the rough has grown up and the absence of spectators will allow for it to become possibly more penal than would usually be the case.
The course is largely flat and there is water in play on seven of the 18 holes; most noticeably the 9th, 10th and 18th holes. It is the (sometimes) drivable 10th which is the signature hole and can lead realistically to a score anywhere between a two and a six, and no doubt the tees will be pushed forward on Sunday to heighten the drama at the start of the back nine. Half the field will start their opening rounds on this hole each day when it will likely be tackled as an iron and a wedge. The greens are large and mostly flat poa annua although a couple over the earlier holes have fairly defined slopes. The keys will be good driving and putting, with a further emphasis on getting up and down when in trouble. I expect good quality players to rise to the occasion here.
The Market Leaders
In form Norwegian Rasmus Hojgaard (12/1) arrives as the market favourite amongst a relatively strong field for this final event of the UK swing. With finishes of 2nd, 6th and 3rd from his three starts ofer the last five weeks the market support is understandable, but i think this week in the cold winds of the West Midlands will represent a quite different challenge to what we have seen so far, and i think the boat might have sailed for now for Hojgaard. An undoubtedly good player, he has failed to make the most of his lifetime best form, and after a week off returning to a more challenging venue amongst a stronger field, I fear for his chances and I can't concur that he should be the market favourite.
Matt Wallace (14/1) made a hot start out of lockdown with a 6th place finish at Close House, but his form thereafter has been somewhat sketchy and he is another at the head of the market who is difficult to like. A player with previously realistic Ryder Cup aspirations, Wallace's game has really flatlined, and he can only be priced as the second favourite on reputation alone. He can play hard courses like this but for me the game, both from the tee, and around the greens, just isn't there at the moment. Austria's Matthias Schwab (16/1) is back from trying his luck, with limited success, in the US, and will be looking to get back to the form of his third placed finish at The Forest of Arden three weeks ago. Whilst another talented player, I feel he lacks the experience to overcome this field, course and conditions and again I will be looking for greater value further down the market.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
In his first event back in Europe after his near heroics at the USPGA Championship, Haotong Li produced four very solid rounds for a comfortable top 10 finish at Celtic Manor, and arrived this week at the Belfry as my market favourite. Li is a top level player, and has achieved far more than every player above him in the market, and arriving in such solid form he needs to be given substantial respect. His game is complete from tee to green, and he has a fantastic short game which will be essential to challenge where the winning score is likely to be only around 12 to 14 under par.
The conditions this week are forecast to be challenging, and I think that a large number of the more average ball strikers might be put off and disadvantaged by the wind and rain on what is a fairly open and exposed course, and one that will play very long in the conditions. Li has shown time and again that he can, and does, contend on tough courses and I expect this week to be no different. He is my headline tip with 3 points e/w @ 18/1.
Other Betting Tips
I have tipped Callum Shinkwin for the past couple of weeks, and came close to producing a fantastic result for us last week again, but could only finish 8th on the back of an 11th place the week before. Those results have been undeniably frustrating, but I feel Shinkwin is worth one more go at this price in the last leg of the UK swing. Callum's strengths lie almost exclusively in his fantastic long game. He can carry the ball huge distances, plays well in wet and windy conditions, and has looked in good form with some flashes of real promise in the last couple of events including a top 30 at the Forest of Arden and again with his top 10 finish here last week. I was fortunate enough to spend the final round of the 2017 Scottish Open with Callum when his double bogey 7 down the last led to a playoff which he lost to Rafa Cabrera Bello. What I saw first hand in that round was the way he handles British golf, and the risk and reward element which should be very much to his advantage this week.
The Belfry is the ultimate risk and reward course, and will realistically be playing around 7,500+ yards in the wet conditions this week. Shinkwin carries the ball miles and I feel he has a real edge on most of the field in terms of his suitability on his first competitive appearance at The Brabazon and I shall be having 2 points e/w at 70/1.
Lastly, Callum Hill has been playing some great golf over the last few weeks, including leading for most of the second round last week, and I feel he is worth supporting at this price at a venue, and in conditions that will suit the powerful Scotsman. Hill has finished inside the top 30 in three of the four events that he has competed in since the restart, and his progressive form should see him push into contention at the most suitable venue on the list if it holds. Hill is a player that makes lots of birdies and is aggressive in his game. His new found consistency makes the price appealing, and i recommend 2 points e/w at 90/1.
Following a rolling profit of 463 points in 2019, I am looking for an even better 2020. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event on the European and PGA Tours, and suggest a suitable staking plan.
|European Tour||-54 points|
|PGA Tour||+67 points|
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