Open Championship Golf Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers. For the latest golf betting odds for Open Championship, make sure to head over to Bet UK’s online betting and live in-play betting markets.
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Rob Cobley’s John Deere Classic Tips
Royal St George’s Golf Club - Kent, England - Par 70, 7,204 Yards
Royal St George’s is located on the East Kent coast and is one of the most iconic Open venues. It represents a true links test, with exposed treeless undulations and a potentially strong coastal breeze meaning it is regularly one of the highest-scoring Opens on the rota.
The bounces are unpredictable, as is the perilous rough, so there is plenty for the players to consider here whilst navigating around St George’s.
Undulating, slow greens will test even the best putters in the field, while run-off areas will punish poor approach play. At 7, 204 yards, it isn’t one of the longest Major courses; in fact, it is the shortest of the year. That, however, is misleading as this stern test will almost certainly produce the highest winning score of any event this year.
Accuracy from the tee and an excellent short game are the essential ingredients this week, and I think I’ve found a couple of gems.
Last Five Winners
The Market Leaders
World number one Jon Rahm (7/1) sits alone at the top of the market for the first time in a Major Championship, and it’s not hard to see why. Rahm has been playing some splendid golf of late and warmed up with a sublime first couple of days last week in Scotland before slipping back into 7th place due to a quiet final round. If anything, that is even more ideal for Rahm, who doesn’t have the baggage of going for a 3rd win in three starts having won the USPGA last month. John is an excellent links player and his powerful, compact swing should stand him in excellent stead here. I was lucky enough to be very close to Jon for a couple of rounds at Portrush and his 11th place there, albeit his best return at an Open Championship, was the worst he could have achieved. Anyone finishing ahead of Rahm has a great chance and the price seems fair.
Jordan Spieth (14/1) sits next in the betting and, as big a fan of Jordan as I am, I struggle to see why. He has an undeniably strong Open record with a win and two top 10s in the last four, but this is a stern test and with the depth, he seems too short in the field. Wayward shots will be severely punished here, far more than on the links where he has won in the North West, and unless his putting is at levels rarely seen, I think Jordan will run up a few too many big numbers to contend strongly.
Rory Mcilroy (18/1) and Brooks Koepka (18/1) make up the remainder of the sub 20s group. Rory is playing increasingly well and his record off the back of missed cuts is phenomenal with three wins the last ten times it has happened. He won’t be without support. Brooks, meanwhile, has been back challenging for Major honours. His Open record is also solid with top 10s in three of his last four, but he is another for whom St Georges might not be the right test and I prefer Rory at the price.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Englishman Richard Bland is having a career season and picked up his first career win at the British Masters last month. He has followed that up with two further top 20s and looks like a real dark horse heading to St George’s. Bland has been bullish in his tone this week, and loves the fact that the fairways are so tight and rough so deep, which plays perfectly to his strengths.
With such consistency in his long game and the putter working incredibly well, Bland knows this could be his best chance to claim a Major Championship. He was in the top 10 at the US Open, and back in familiar surroundings, this price seems incredibly big. I have backed him with 2 Points e/w at 175/1.
Other Betting Tips
As I have alluded to above, the stars seem to be aligning for Rory McIlroy this week as the Northern Irishman looks to put behind him the disappointment of Portrush, where an early 9 put pay to his chances, and claim a second Open Championship title. McIlroy has looked in excellent shape, with his win at Quail Hollow being followed up with some great rounds, including contending for the US Open.
At St George’s Rory won’t need to get the driver out too often and the unwavering accuracy of his 3 wood and irons should see him set up a lot of birdie chances. What will be key for McIlroy is his scrambling around the greens. If that is on this week, I have every expectation of him being the closest challenger to Rahm. I recommend staking 3 Points e/w at 18/1.
Lastly is a player I tipped up last week, and who didn’t really perform with a finish of 35th, but I do like the look of this price on Guido Migliozzi who was 4th at Torrey Pines and who’s game is also in the best shape of his career. Guido hits the ball straight, makes very few mistakes, and is excellent around the greens. He is another with a great course fit who looks far too big for such an open event. I have had 2 Points e/w at 150/1.
Following a rolling profit of 300 points for the 2019 & 2020 seasons, I am looking for a great 2021, and have some fantastic bets lined up for events throughout the year on both the PGA and European Tours. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event, and suggest a suitable staking plan.
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