Sanderson Farms Championship Betting Tips
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Rob Cobley’s Sanderson Farms Championship Betting Tips
Jackson Country Club, Mississippi, USA. Par 72, 7,400 Yards
Last week was a better week for us on the PGA Tour, and James Hahn finishing in the places as the 80/1 headline tip means that we are nearly 100 points in profit for the season on the PGA Tour, and I am hopeful that we can push through that milestone this year in Mississippi.
Twenty miles north of the town of Jackson, and first opened in 1962, the Jackson Country club plays host to the Sanderson Farms for the 6th time this week. Jackson is a flat, relatively easy, parkland course that John Fought attempted to redesign back in 2008 to toughen it up, however this has largely failed, as evidenced by the average winning score over the past five years being 19 under par.
Wide, flat, Bermuda fairways and smallish, receptive, bermuda greens are typical of this area, and the players won’t find many demons awaiting them here. The main defence of the course is off the tee with relatively thick (by PGA Tour standards) rough, and more than the usual scattering of trees down each side of the generous fairways, meaning any shot that is wide enough will receive the punishment that it deserves. This also applies to approach shots, and to some of the smaller greens this will make things a little trickier, but overall Jackson has few defenses.
The key to success this week will be a high percentage of greens in regulation, taking advantage of the four par 5s, and a red hot putter. Previous winners on this course have usually been over 100/1, and with no stand out favourites this week we really have a very open and interesting betting heat.
Last Five Winners:
2019: Sebastian Munoz -18 2018: Cameron Champ -21 2017: Ryan Armour -19 2016: Cody Gribble -20 2015: Peter Malnati -18
The Market Leaders Scottie Scheffler (9/1) leads the market this week in Mississippi having finished in the top 5 in three of his last four events on the Tour including the US Open and the Fedex Cup playoffs. Scheffler is becoming one of the most formidable players on Tour, and is most prone to show up in the biggest events as he did at Winged Foot. That doesn't by any means make him less likely to contend here, although there is certainly a small element of "the Koepka's" about his better performances being weighted to the Majors. Scottie has played here the last couple of years with finishes of 45th and 16th so there has been improvement, and his form coming in this week is certainly cause for optimism. That said, this venue remains a graveyard for favourites, and I can't take someone with Scheffler's win percentage at single figures so I'm keeping away from him this week.
Sungjae Im (12/1) has had a quiet time of late with just one top 10 since golf resumed and, although he posted an 11th at the US Open, does little to excite me here. He also has two starts at this venue with his form reading MC, 2nd, so he can certainly play the Jackson Country Club, but his game has generally looked a bit stale and lethargic lately. This tournament is one of the most open on Tour, and I can't find any value in him. Will Zalatoris (16/1) makes his first start in this event, and the highly rated Korn Ferry Tour graduate is certainly the flavour of the month with the bookmakers at the moment who make him just 16/1 to pick up his maiden win here. Zalatoris is a huge hitter who will like the generous expanses here at Jackson, but it's a punt at the price in the field to throw money on him, and he again is one I will leave in search of the real value further down the market.
Nate Lashley is a player that I like a lot, and he played some excellent golf last week in Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic on his way to a 4th placed finish; his best for some time on Tour. Lashley loves these slightly easier venues where you can open your shoulders and really attack the course. Nobody could forget the way that he dismantled the Detroit Country Club last year on his way to a record breaking 26 under par winning score, and Jackson holds a host of similarities to that venue which have me quite excited about the price of the in form Lashley this week. If he putts like he did over the weekend in Dominican then he will be a hard man to stop here on this open and uncomplicated course. 3 points e/w @ 100/1
Other Betting Tips
Adam Long was the odds on favourite for much of the final round last week before a couple of missed putts and double bogey half way through the front nine saw an end to his challenge. Long is another aggressive player who plays risk and reward golf, and that has been coming off lately with finishes of 13th and 5th as he arrives at a venue that should suit him every bit as much as it should Lashley. Long is another who hits the ball miles and likes to attack the pins meaning he is as capable as matching anyone in the field on this type of open and exposed venue. The likes of Scheffler and Im at the top of the market are more cultured players, and they will have their day elsewhere, but this event is perfectly set up for the likes of the in form Adam Long to take his second career Tour win. 2 points e/w at 28/1)
Tyler McCumber hasn't been having the best season so far, but the rookie looked like a seasoned professional last week as he attacked the Punta Corales course on his way to a 2nd place finish. Although that was a stand out result for the year, and despite missing the cut last season at Jackson, I cannot see why that momentum cannot be carried over from four days ago to this event, and why Mccumber cannot seriously contend. He is another aggressive player who won't leave anything behind and is well worth a play at this price. 1 point e/w at 125/1
Following a rolling profit of 463 points in 2019, I am looking for an even better 2020. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event on the European and PGA Tours, and suggest a suitable staking plan. \
|European Tour||-96 points|
|PGA Tour||+92 points|
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