Portugal Masters Betting Tips
Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course - Vilamoura, Portugal - Par 71, 7,200 Yards
The late Arnold Palmer must have been in a very forgiving mood the day in 2004 when he designed the Dom Pedro Golf Course here in Vilamoura; Europe's golfing Mecca. With an average winning score over the past 12 years of 21 under par, and with Oliver Fisher managing to shoot a 59 last year, this really is one of the genuinely most forgiving and enjoyable courses on the Tour, and often brings good fields to the Algarve. On the South Atlantic coast some two and a half hours drive south of Lisbon, the Dom Pedro Course (which was originally created to host the 2005 World Cup of Golf) is an open, yet still exposed birdie haven.
Though a typically easy venue, the organisers have decided to toughen things up a little this year, as much as they can against the backdrop and geography of the venue. The exposed, generous, undulating fairways are in places as wide as they are long, and there is little by way of natural protection from trees making driving extremely easy. Water is in play from the tee on 6 holes, but the bail out zones are so vast that in reality it has little effect on this quality of field. One change that has been made this year is that the bermuda rough has grown up, and has tightened a couple of fairways; 14 and 18 most notably. This will have little impact, but is a fair gesture given recent scoring. The green complexes are largely designed for average standard tourist players, and are huge, soft, and undulating.
The keys to success this week will be birdie average, putting, and scrambling for the odd occasion that players manage to miss the large greens; bogeys do not go down well here and will heavily impair a players chances. Another point to note is that this has historically been a graveyard for favourites, and we might be looking further down the market for this week's value.
Last Five Winners:
The Market Leaders
Matt Wallace (14/1) leads what is a strong field that has assembled on the Algarve this week for the Portugal Masters. Matt has been playing on the PGA Tour recently, and finished an impressive 4th at the Zozo Championship in Japan a fortnight ago behind eventual winner Hideki Matsuyama. His form before then hadn't been great with missed cuts or withdrawals in six of the previous seven events, but that can now largely be discarded following his impressive showing at the Zozo. He last played here in 2019 when he finished 8th, and no doubt is one of the strongest contenders should he maintain that form from two weeks ago. The price seems right and it is hard to argue against him being the slight market favourite around an easy, low scoring, venue that will suit him well.
Laurie Canter (18/1) is an obvious selection here having finished 2nd in the event last year, and with three top 5 finishes in his last four events. Canter is edging ever closer to his maiden Tour win, and it is hard to argue against his chances. What I will say is that this course is far lower scoring, and the week off might have blunted his momentum slightly. Combined with the greater weight of expectation and the strong field, I am going to give Canter a miss, but it would be no surprise for him to find himself right in contention again this week.
Andrew Johnston (20/1) has been on a resurgence of form lately with top 10s in two of his last five starts including a 7th last time out in Mallorca. Johnston has won on a similar resort style course in Spain previously, and loves to go low. His form here is, however, sketchy with finishes of 44, 34 in two starts and it is a big step to put him in the same bracket as the two market favourites. It is exciting to see Andrew back amongst the contenders in the biggest events, but i want to see a bit ore, and for now it is a watching brief here in Portugal.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Portugal Masters Betting Tip
Dutchman Wil Besseling finished an impressive 14th last year on his debut at Dom Pedro, and I can see the in form 35 year old, who has four professional wins to his name, getting even closer this time around. Besseling played some excellent golf when finishing 6th at the Spanish Open on 16 under par, and will need to reach a similarly low number in order to seriously contend this week. That is by no means beyond him, and he has had further strong showings at the European Masters and the English Open where he finished 14th and 26th respectively. Besseling is a player with few weaknesses, but his biggest strengths lie in his tee to green game which should set up a lot of birdie opportunities around here. His putting was excellent on the similarly large, flat greens of Club De Campo in Madrid where he finished in that 6th place and there is an awful lot to like about Wil here on this similar challenge. I have backed him with 3 Points e/w at 48/1.
Other Portugal Masters Betting Tips
South Africa's George Coetzee had been enduring a tough and unsuccessful season until last week when he unexpectedly burst into form at the French Open, eventually finishing 3rd having pushed eventual winner Nicolas Colsaerts all the way on Sunday before succumbing by three strokes. Coetzee is a great wind player, as are most South Africans, and has a similarly impressive short game. Similarly to Lucas, his struggles have come more usually with his long game, and again are far less exposed in Portugal. Between 2011 and 2018, Coetzee played this event six times, finishing outside the top 20 only once and as high as 3rd, 6th, and 7th. Before that 7th place, Coezee was again coming in off a 3rd place finish and had missed all previous cuts in the last three months, so this would seem a distinct improvement in form. George is a streaky player, and I am expecting some big performances from him over the next 3-4 months, particularly as the Tour goes through it's Asian and South African runs. That can begin this week, and i expect Coetzee to contend. I recommend 2 points e/w at 25/1.
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*All odds from Bet UK’s online betting markets correct at the time of writing.
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