The Players Championship Golf Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers. For the latest golf betting odds for the The Players Championship, make sure to head over to Bet UK’s online betting and live in-play betting markets.
Rob Cobley’s Players Championship Betting Tips
The Stadium Course, TPC Sawgrass - Florida - Par 72, 7,189 Yards
The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass this week for golf’s unofficial fifth major and one of the most exciting and unpredictable events on the calendar. Having been the first event to have been cancelled in 2020 due to the Covid outbreak, it is a welcome and hopefully thrilling return of golf to one of its most exciting venues.
The Stadium course is home to the PGA Tour, and their flagship event always attracts the biggest and best players from around the world, all arriving with the hope of taking home one of the biggest crowns in golf.
Sawgrass is characterised by tiny greens, fast undulating fairways, and several doglegs, all of which serve to remove some of the Tours’ bigger hitters’ advantages. This has been evidenced in a somewhat erratic trend of winners, from big bombers like Rickie Fowler and Jason Day to the likes of Tim Clark and Fred Funk, who have managed to manoeuvre their way around this delightful Pete Dye creation.
The front nine at Sawgrass is relatively unremarkable. Still, the backside is some of the most entertaining holes you will see anywhere on a golf course, culminating in the famous island green that faces the players on the treacherous par-three 17th.
Last Five Winners
The Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson (11/1) arrives in Ponte Vedra Beach as the market favourite following his superb run of form so far this year and towards the end of last. This, however, represents an entirely different test to the other venues where DJ could just open his shoulders and rely on his power to give him a significant edge on the field. Sawgrass is a nuanced beast, and length is of little advantage around the hums, bumps, and doglegs. A career-best 5th place in 2019 is DJ’s best finish here, and I struggle to justify having him on side this week. He is a no bet for me.
Bryson Dechambeau (12/1) surprised many, including me, with his win at Bay Hill last week. In truth, the performance was impressive but so reliant on his power from the tee. His wedge game was fairly poor, but his lag putting was solid, and it was enough to get the job done. Bryson has finishes of 37th and 20th in his two visits here which are far from bad, but with the way his game is now set up with such a reliance on power, I see this as a poor fit. He will likely take several irons off the tee, and at Bay Hill, he was struggling to commit to them. I do not like his chances to contend here.
Rory Mcilroy (14/1) is the defending champion following his win here in 2019, and it is a course that Rory has always enjoyed and played well at with four other top 10s. Mcilroy shapes the ball well with a low flight and can use the course’s contours to his advantage, unlike Bryson, who carries the ball longer distances. Coming off back to back top 10s, Rory cannot be ruled out, but the price seems about right.
John Rahm (14/1) has been steady away and has a best-placed finish of 12th here in 2019. He looks a little worse value to Rory for me, and I will be passing him by again this week.
Rob’s Betting Tips
Headline Golf Betting Tip
Colombian Jhonattan Vegas is not a name that you see near the top of the betting markets very often. This week is no exception with the market seemingly willing to ignore his 2nd placed finish around a tight track two weeks ago in Puerto Rico, and perhaps also not picking up on the fact that he finished 3rd in this event in 2019; his 2nd top 10 in this event in his last five appearances. Vegas is a very tidy player and a streaky one, so when he has runs like this, it is a great time to get him onside. He is a must bet for me with the course and current form, and I am thrilled to take these odds with 2 points e/w at 200/1.
Other Betting Tip
Lee Westwood played some excellent golf last week despite never really pushing Dechambeau down the stretch, particularly given his very poor 2nd into the par 5 16th with a wedge which meant he ended up taking 5. That aside, Lee’s game looked in terrific shape. He led the field in strokes gained on the greens’ approaches and was in the top 10 from the tee. If he can reproduce that level of a long game, he will undoubtedly love the fast greens at Sawgrass and could well be a significant challenger. Lee has three top 10s in his last six visits here, and in this form, in a field with no obvious favourites cannot be overlooked. I have backed him with 2 points e/w at 70/1.
Following a rolling profit of 300 points for the 2019 & 2020 seasons, I am looking for a great 2021 and have some great bets lined up for events throughout the year on both the PGA and European Tours. Each week I will pick between two to four selections at each event and suggest a suitable staking plan.