Written By Robert Cobley - 5th February 2020
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers.
Pebble Beach, Monterey Shore & Spyglass Hill Monterey Peninsula - California, USA
The Monterey Peninsula provides the stunning backdrop to the PGA Tour this week, as the players hit the West Coast for one of the biggest and most enjoyable weeks of the season. Played across three host courses with Pebble Beach as the centrepiece, the AT&T Pro Am regularly attracts one of the strongest fields of the season. This year is no different as defending champion Phil Mickelson heads an all star field in his home state. Although these courses can be brutal, if the wind stays away as it is forecast to this week, conditions can be quite benign, and with the courses set up to accommodate amateur players too, scoring is expected to be low. The first three days are pro am format across each of the courses, with the top 60 professionals and amateurs making it to Pebble on Sunday for the final day.
Pebble Beach - 7050 Yards - Par 72
Designed over 100 years ago, and perhaps the most instantly recognisable golf course in the World, Pebble Beach is actually a public course where players can play without a member, although the green fees are still eye watering! This week, though, is all about the professionals, and seeing who can join the illustrious names on one of the most famous trophies in golf. A visually stunning course on one of the World's most precious pieces of real estate, Pebble offers up a great challenge with 120 bunkers amongst the hazards that the field has to contend with. Nine of the eighteen holes run alongside the Pacific Ocean, and the course is heavily exposed to the wind when it does blow.
From the tee, Pebble isn't too penal. The fairways are average width, and the first cut of rough is eminently playable. Drift further off line and there are troubles; the rough gets thicker, and there are bushes or steep drops to the ocean to contend with, but on a calm day most players will be able to overcome these hazards without too much difficulty. The approach shots are far more difficult. The greens at Pebble Beach are notoriously tiny, and the greenside rough is heavy meaning that there is a real premium on accurate iron play. The green complexes last week in Phoenix were over 7,500 square feet, here they are under 3,500 to give an idea of the difference in the challenge faced. All the greens here are poa annua and experience putting well on these surfaces is a substantial advantage. Pebble is the hardest course on the rotation.
Monterey Shore - 6850 Yards - Par 71
Monterey is another spectacular course, and thirteen of its eighteen holes run alongside the Ocean, making it equally as susceptible to the elements as Pebble Beach. This week, that probably won't factor in as much as normal with the lack of wind, and on a calm day this would likely take over from Spyglass as the easiest of the three host courses. The challenges and geography are similar to Pebble Beach, but the fairways are wider and, most notably, the greens are far bigger making mistakes here far less likely. If players are to contend they will need to be looking at around five under par as a minimum at Monterey. If the wind doesn't blow it just becomes all about who has a hot putting day here.
Spyglass Hill - 6960 Yards - Par 72
The newest of the three courses having been designed by Robert Trent Jones Jnr back in 1966, Spyglass is very different to the other two. Set slightly inland, it is a tree lined links type golf course that offers up some protection from the elements; a huge advantage, and one that makes this the easiest of the three courses in years where the wind blows. The greens are again small here, more akin to Pebble than Monterey, although as a par 72 under 7,000 yards, that still isn't enough to significantly challenge the players these days. The key metrics here, as really with the other two host courses, are greens in regulation, par 4 scoring, and being able to putt well on poa annua greens.
Last Five Winners:
|2018||Ted Potter Jnr||-17|
|2017||Jordan Spieth||- 19|
The Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson (5/1) has an incredible affinity with Pebble Beach having won in 2012 and finished in the top five in six of his other nine starts here, as well as leading going into the final round of the 2010 US Open here before throwing that event in the direction of Graeme McDowell with a terrible final round 78 in tough conditions. Johnson has discovered some of his form to start this year and was on the peripheries of contention at the Saudi Invitational last week, and coming home to Pebble provides an excellent opportunity for him to pick up his first win of the season. The calm conditions will help, and if Dustin has a good week on the poa annual greens then he will be hard to beat. For me the price is just too short, however.
Patrick Cantlay (11/1) is perhaps a surprising second favourite, although the field is certainly weaker than usual given the extensive travelling of some of the players recently, particularly to the Middle East. Cantlay did achieve a top 10 finish here in 2013, but has only competed twice since at Pebble without making any real impact. The calm conditions will again help him, but I'm not sure that he has the length from the tee to give him an edge around here, and he is another that i will be leaving alone this week.
Jason Day (18/1) has a great record here with top 5 finishes in four of his last six visits. Hampered by injury throughout the last couple of years, Day did return a very positive top 20 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open a couple of weeks ago, and with that form behind him he has to be seriously considered to get into a contention at a venue where a win has still somehow eluded him. Paul Casey (18/1) finished 2nd behind Phil Mickelson last year and undoubtedly has the game to compete again here. His recent form has been solid whilst unspectacular with a host of top 20 finishes, but he is well rested and unlike most at the top of the market not travel weary after the last few weeks of golf around the World. I expect another competitive return from Casey, but he won't be a selection of mine to win this week.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
Max Homa is known to most for his Gordon Ramsay-like social media appraisals of various golf swings than he perhaps is for his golf but the 29 year old American is looking to change all of that, and he is starting to get incredibly close. Homa is a great ball striker who has the ability to seriously overpower the three venues here, and given his recent form (top 10s in bus last two events) he looks almost certain to contend this week. The lack of wind should play into Homa's hands too. Last year he finished in the top 10 at this event when in far poorer form, and against a set up that complimented his strengths far less. What is crucial for me is that Homa, who grew up on bermuda greens now has another year's experience in poa annual, and his performances on it at both the Farmers Insurance, and last week in Phoenix, showed that his is now a real contender.on these surfaces. I make him my headline bet this week with 2 points e/w at 50/1
Young American Cameron Champ didn't quite deliver on his substantial promise last year, but with four consecutive top 20 finishes behind him, and arriving at a bombers paradise, Champ has to be seriously considered to put that talent into practice this week and deliver his second PGA Tour win. Cameron is one of the biggest hitters on Tour, averaging just under 330 yards from the tee, and the open expanse of links on these courses should be kryptonite to him. Champ made his debut here last year and his top 30 finish would have been considerably higher but for a very disappointing day 2 at Spyglass Hill. This year, with a win behind him, and in what is a far weaker field than normal at Pebble, I'm backing him to get right into contention and having 2 points e/w at 40/1.
Although it might be hard to believe at the price, JJ Spaun has one of the best long games on the PGA Tour at the moment. Over the past two events he has gained an incredible 12 shots on the field in ball striking, though struggled on the greens to finishes of 47th and 30th place. Those are still respectable, and Spaun is not far off putting it all together and getting into contention at a big event. What i like about his chances this week is the different type of event, and the more relaxed environment. Spaun very much fits the profile of a player like DA Points who won here back in 2012 alongside Bill Murray in the team event, and if Spaun can channel that relaxed chemistry into his game then he could well find himself right in contention come Sunday. He is certainly worth a play at this price. I recommend 1 point e/w at 200/1.
Following a rolling profit of 463 points in 2019, I am looking for an even better 2020. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event on the European and PGA Tours, and suggest a suitable staking plan.
|European Tour||-43 points|
|PGA Tour||+86 points|
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