Omega European Masters Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers.
Golf Club Crans-Sur-Sierre - Crans Montana, Switzerland - Par 71, 6,850 Yards
This week sees the European Tour season kick into full swing as an extremely strong field heads into the Crans mountains of Switzerland for one of the season’s flagship events. Originally the Swiss Open back in 1923, the tournament celebrates it’s 96th staging this week at one of the most beautiful and iconic venues on mainland Europe, if not the World. Set some 5,000 feet above sea level (where balls typically fly 6-8% further in the altitude), Crans-Sur-Sierre is a visually stunning venue surrounded by green hills and snow capped mountains. It is no surprise to see the quality of field that has assembled here this week.
Crans is a unique venue, and the shortest par 71 on Tour at just 6,850 yards. With the balls flying further than any other venue, length is almost completely negated for these players, and it is accuracy, both from the tee and with the irons, that will decide those that contend for the title this week. The course was originally designed in 1908, and given a facelift by Seve Ballesteros back in 1997 to toughen it up. It is a compact, mountainside, parkland course with slopey, average width fairways. The rough is forgiving, but hundreds of trees line the fairways; punishing errant shots both from the tee, and occasionally approaches to the greens.
The putting surfaces at Crans are like tiny upturned saucers with run off areas on all sides. Players have to either be very accurate with their approaches, or able to get up and down regularly. Typical facets of a Ballesteros venue. There are only three par 5s, all of which are reachable as is the par 4 6th making for ample eagle, as well as birdie, opportunities for the players. Course form here is as relevant as at any venue with the likes of Fitzpatrick, Noren, and Willett all having enjoyed multiple successful returns here.
Last Five Winners:
2018: Matthew Fitzpatrick - -17
2017: Matthew Fotzpatrick - -14
2016: Alexander Noren - -17
2015: Danny Willett - -17
2014: David Lipsky - -18
The Market Leaders
The presence of newly crowned Fedex Cup champion Rory Mcilroy (7/2) so soon after his win in Atlanta last week speaks volumes for the high regard in which players hold this event. Rory has played here competitively three times previously with finishes of 7th, 3rd, and 2nd dating back most recently to 2011, and will be one of the main contenders this week whether jet-lagged or not. This isn’t a venue that Mcilroy will be able to overpower, but another of his strengths; his superb distance control with his wedges, will definitely come into play this week. Rory will be coming here with expectations to win, and will almost certainly challenge over the 4 days. With his birdie percentage, an off day won’t rule him out and the price seems reasonable.
Next in the betting is last week’s runner up Mathew Fitzpatrick (8/1). FItzpatrick obviously has the game for this venue, and has won the last two stagings of the event; both in playoffs over Lucas Bjerregard (2018) and Scot Hend (2017). Fitzpatrick is straight, and hits his medium irons as well as almost anyone in the field. His short game is stellar, and he will have the appetite for victory having been beaten into 2nd by South African Erik van Rooyen (20/1) on a less suitable track in Sweden last week. Whilst Rory is the bigger name, i would take Fitz at twice the price. In his two outings before his two wins, he posted finishes of 7th and 2nd. It is impossible to see him not contending over the weekend.
England’s Tommy Fleetwood (11/1) takes the next slot in the betting. He has traveled with Rory straight from competing in the Tour Championship in Atlanta following a solid Fedex Cup. Whether Crans suits his game as much as some of the other main contenders is up for debate. Fleetwood has a great long game, but isn’t as solid around the greens as those that are likely to be contending his week, and for that reason I am happy to swerve the price. Course specialists Alex Noren (20/1) and Tommy Fleetwood (20/1) make up the remainder at the front of the market. Both have exceptional course. Noren has wins here in 2009 and 2016, followed up by a 7th on his most recent visit two years ago, whilst Willett won in 2015, and has two other top 5 finishes to his name.Neither is in exceptional form but, as with so many here, anything is possible on a course where low numbers will be aplenty over the four days.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
This week hasn’t been one of the easier ones to select the headline tip with several players lower in the market that I feel could strongly outperform their price, particularly with Rory taking a 25% share. One does however stand out, and that is Matthew Fitzpatrick as he goes for his Swiss hat-trick. Matt is enjoying another great season, but has yet to cap it with a victory, having won on Tour every year since his maiden title at the British Masters back in 2015. Last week Fitz was beaten narrowly into 2nd place, and there could be no better better motivator or reason to back him as he arrives at this most familiar of venues.
Fitzpatrick is the archetypal tee to green master with a mid range game as good as any, and he has put those skills to good use at Crans over the years. Scores of fourteen and seventeen under par have been good enough to see him take playoff victories in each of the past two years, and he hasn’t finished outside the top 7 here other than on his first appearance back in 2015. With there being 7 places on offer this week, a place return would see us profit, and i see this as a great chance to have a free run at the win given Matt’s consistency. I am making him my biggest tip to date with 4 points e/w at 8/1.
Rising Spanish star Adri Arnaus is the first of my best of the rest this week, both at prices of 100/1 or greater. The 24 year old Spaniard was our headline tip two weeks ago when he posted a 2nd place at the Czech Masters, one shot behind winner Thomas Pieters. This week on the back of a missed cut in Sweden, he has drifted out to a very backable price. Much of that is no doubt market caution given that he has never played a competitive round here, but that really isn’t a concern to me. Three weeks before the 2nd in the Czech Republic, Arnaus had also posted a runner up finish at the Andalucia Masters on a similarly short and tricky course, Valderrama.
The course synergies with Valderrama are obvious, and players such as Sergio Garcia and Lucas Bjerregaard have shown that a strong performance at one can often be an indicator of contending at the other. Arnaus is one of the best greens in regulation components on Tour, and will set himself up plenty of birdie opportunities this week. He should be half the price, and I am happy to take 2 points e/w at 100/1.
In form young Frenchman Victor Perez is the final selection. Having posted his first top 10 on Tour last week in Sweden, he arrives in the Alps looking for further improvement, and I wouldn't be surprised if he found it. Perez is another cultured shorter hitter who will be on a level playing field with the longer, bigger, names this week. Perez has not missed a cut all season, and has posted other strong finishes such as at the Scottish Open. He is a big name for the future, and a player i have no doubt will win in the next 12 months. With more displays like last week, that is unlikely to be at this type of price, but I am willing to take it while it’s still about and will be having 2 points e/w at 125/1.
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*All odds from Bet UK’s online betting markets correct at the time of writing.
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