Northern Trust Open Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers.
TPC Boston, Norton - Massachusetts, USA - Par 71, 7,342 Yards
The Northern Trust is the first event of the FedEx Cup playoffs and features the top 125 players in the rankings. The top 70 will move forward to next week's BMW Championship where they will compete for one of the top 30 places available at the Tour Championship. TPC Boston was used for the Dell Technologies Championship from 2003 until 2018 and now shares its FedEx playoffs spot with the Liberty National, where the tournament was played last year.
There are three par-fives – the second (542 yards), seventh (600 yards) and 18th (530 yards). This trio of long holes is where the eventual champion usually picks up shots, and the winning scores are typically around -18 when the big events are held at this East Coast venue.
The fifth, sixth, 12th and 14th - four long par fours - are tough holes, while the third is the only one of the four par threes which played under-par back in 2018. The greens are bentgrass and usually very smooth to putt on.
The Market Leaders
American bomber Bryson Dechambeau (11/1) leads the field going into the field going into the first of four "season ending" Fedex Cup playoffs. The playoffs are in fact nothing of the sort as they are squeezed in ahead of the US Open and The Masters which are to be played in September and November respectively. Those facts will however make little difference to Bryson who will be looking to add to his win here in 2018 with another this time around. He comes here in undeniably strong form with a win and four top 10 finishes in his last seven starts. Whilst he has been the poster boy for a new generation of big hitters, Bryson has displayed enough finesse and guile to suggest that his skills stretch far beyond his abilities with the driver alone. He is a strong contender here, and is priced as such.
Rory Mcilroy (12/1) and Justin Thomas (12/1) sit just behind Bryson with both having experienced success at TPC Boston back in 2016 and 2017 respectively. Rory was very downbeat about his game after the recent USPGA Championship saying that his best days might be behind him and given such a poor run of results he is very hard to support following those comments. To transition from that to beating the best 125 guys on Tour in the space of a couple of weeks is a huge stretch, and I'll be leaving Rory alone until he shows some real form. Thomas also stuttered almost predictably at Harding Park on the back of his win at the St Jude. When he turns up he is undeniably one of the best players on the planet, but his inconsistency is what really holds him back. His form here is good with a couple of top 10s aside from the 2017 win, and he is certainly the better value of the two.
Juhn Rahm (14/1) has two 3rd place finishes in three starts here although he has been struggling to contend of late. The price seems about right. Whilst Dustin Johnson (16/1) has two wins here and seems to have rediscovered his form of late. The former World number one could definitely challenge.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
Tony Finau has been every bit the Tour's nearly man since the restart with three top 10s in his last four starts, including last time out at Harding Park. Finau is a great striker of the ball, and there is no doubt that this season has seen him elevate his game to a level that we haven't seen before. He has far better control of his ball than he has ever had before; his distance control with his irons has been exceptional, and he has improved his putting to the level that you need to win regularly on Tour. If there remains a weakness for Tony it is his short game; those short to medium range chips and pitches from around the green, but I don't see that stopping him from picking up a win during these playoffs.
In his previous five visits to TPC Boston, Finau has managed three top 20 finishes with a career best of 2nd back in 2018 so the course certainly holds no demons for him. Tony is a far more able and refined player than he was then, and his ability to challenge consistently is what leads me into really liking him at this price. He is a good solid win bet, and the security of the place profit which pays 6/1 is also substantial if he finishes in the top 5. I am very happy to recommend backing him with 3 points e/w @ 28/1.
Other Betting Tips
Of all the players in the field this week, none has a better record at TPC Boston than Dustin Johnson, and DJ is heading into ominously good form ahead of the playoff series, and for me is the most likely eventual winner with great form at all four of the venues to be played. Johnson could, and perhaps should have won the PGA Championship at Harding Park, eventually finishing in a tie for 2nd place. His game looked in great shape and he was the outright leader going into the final day after a superb third round 65 before being swamped by the deep field and eventually held off by Colin Morikawa who won by two shots. Dustin is as good as anyone in the field at recovering from those knocks, and this is the perfect venue for him to win again; remember it was only eight weeks ago that he won so comprehensively at The Travelers Championship. WIth two wins and four more top 10s in eight starts he is the king of TPC Boston and I expect him to go very close to reclaiming his crown. I have had 2 points e/w at 16/1.
Kevin Streelman has enjoyed a strong run following lockdown with two top 10s and three further weekend finishes in his last few events, including a WGC and a fortnight ago's Major. Streelman is a very tidy player who is far longer than most would be at his age. He has a history of contending on long, challenging, courses and TPC Boston is no different. In ten starts here ,Streelman has made the cut on eight occasions with a best finish of 3rd. Given the form he has shown recently, and that his fit with this venue is far stronger than at least half of the field, there is little downside to backing him with 1 point e/w at 175/1.
Following a rolling profit of 463 points in 2019, I am looking for an even better 2020. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event on the European and PGA Tours, and suggest a suitable staking plan.
|European Tour||-38 points|
|PGA Tour||+33 points|