Northern Trust Open Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers.
TPC Boston, Norton - Massachusetts, USA - Par 71, 7,342 Yards
The Northern Trust is the first event of the FedEx Cup playoffs and features the top 125 players in the rankings. The top 70 will move forward to next week's BMW Championship where they will compete for one of the top 30 places available at the Tour Championship.
This week we are off to New York for the Northern Trust as it moves into its third year having taken over sponsorship of the Fedex Cup Series opening event from Barclays, and formerly from Buick. It continues to amaze me how the PGA Tour and other World golf bodies have got the scheduling so wrong for the fans. We are straight off the back of a World Golf Championship, which in itself followed on from The Open, and already into the season ending run of four playoff tournaments. Coming in early August it is staggering, and the once annual golf season now seems to be wedged into a 6 month window between April and September.
Liberty National is a polarising venue just a mile from the Statue of Liberty in New York State. Known for raucous crowds, particularly in relation to the Presidents Cup two years ago, this venue provides a spectacle both in terms of the golf and the atmosphere, but it is not widely popular amongst the players. Following the 2009 Barclays, won by American Heath Slocum, there was a lot of unrest, particularly around the greens. This led to a complete redesign of 12 holes prior to the 2013 staging won by Adam Scott, and this seems to have placated many of the concerns.
The course itself is a long open parkland venue that is often exposed to the elements, and one that provides a real test to the players. The fairways are an average width, but the rough is penal. Even more so the further offline you are with four gradients of fescue and bluegrass. The green complexes are small and slopey, usually measuring above 12 on the stimp. This makes the approach play and accurate irons imperative to success. Players hitting less than 75% of greens in regulation this week will struggle to contend.
The Market Leaders
Jon Rahm (8/1) heads what is arguably the strongest field of the year on the PGA Tour. Although there are no European Tour players competing, it is still the PGA Tours top 125, and that is probably the strongest field we see all year, even including the Majors where a lot of the field are in through regional qualifying events or as past champions. As for Rahm, he has been on an extended break from the game away from the Majors following the birth of his first child, and it remains to be seen how he tackles Liberty National this week having played it once competitively without any success. Jon certainly has the game, as he does at any venue, but in such a competitive event, with no course form, and off the back of an absence i find him impossible to back at such a short price.
Next we have Jordan Spieth (12/1) who I am a huge fan of, but who seems incredibly short. Sure his game is back to near its best, and in particular the long game has seen the huge improvement needed to tackle a course such as Liberty National, but Spieth will still be reliant on an incredible puttingweek to challenge at this brutish venue. It isn't that he cant produce that, but that this bottom market price just makes no appeal given the huge number of variables in play this week.
Colin Morikawa (16/1) and Dustin Johnson (16/1) both hold strong chances on the back of their strong recent form. Morikawa won the open with a stunning display of long iron play, and the challenge this week is not indifferent to that faced at Royal St Georges. Morikawa seems to come and go on leaderboards despite his obvious qualities. He should be thereabouts this week barring a steep loss in form. I couldn't put anyone off at the price. Johnson has been slightly less clinical with a host of top 5 finishes this season that he has failed to turn into victories. he won this event, albeit at TPC Boston, last yeah by a record 11 strokes, and will be keen to put up a strong defence. He also seems competitively priced to contend.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
My headline selection this week is a dangerous mix of excellent course and current form. Adam Scott will still be smarting from missing a 4-footer to win the playoff at the Wyndham Championship last week, but the better news is he arrives in New Jersey fresh off his best ballstriking week since the Honda Classic in March and should be prepared to attack a course he loves. He won here in 2013, closing with a 66 and finished fifth in 2019, closing with 65. In between, he represented the International side at the Presidents Cup here in 2017, scoring an excellent three points. Scott isn't a frequent enough winner given his incredible talent, but it all seems aligned for him to challenge strongly for the title this week. I shall back him with 3 Points e/w at 40/1
Other Betting Tips
Harris English has rediscovered his immense talent after three years in the doldrums, and is looking once more like one of the very best players on the PGA Tour. English has finished in the top four in three of his last four starts. Two years ago he wasn't in the top 125 to be eligible for the Northern Trust which shows the level of his improvement to now be one of the main challengers. Harris is Top 10 in the field for putting on bentgrass greens which are a feature at Liberty, and another who offers great value. I have had 2 Points e/w at 40/1
Following a rolling profit of 300 points for the 2019 & 2020 seasons, I am looking for a great 2021, and have some fantastic bets lined up for events throughout the year on both the PGA and European Tours. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event, and suggest a suitable staking plan.
|European Tour||+149 points|
|PGA Tour||-38 points|