The Memorial Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers. So far in 2020, Rob Cobley is 11 points in profit when betting on the PGA Tour. That means for a £1 stake, Cobley is £11 in profit so far.
Muirfield Village Golf Club - Dublin, Ohio - Par 72, 7,392 Yards
Muirfield Village once again sets the stage for one of the more eagerly anticipated weeks on the PGA Tour, as one of the strongest fields of the regular season reconvenes at Muirfield Village for the second consecutive week. Just 20 miles north of the city of Columbus, Muirfield is a pristine, undulating, parkland course lined by trees, and where accuracy off the tee is far more important to this week’s contenders than distance.
A par 72, with 4 par 3s, and 4 birdiable par 5s, the winning score here usually sits at around -15 and, with conditions this week predicted to be favourable, there is nothing to suggest anything different. Despite those low scores, any player not exhibiting accuracy from the tee will be severely punished by the thick rough and 77 bunkers which provide the defence for this old school venue. Added to that, players will find water in play on 11 holes. A good long game and creative shotmaking are the keys to taming Muirfield, and I will look for these amongst the selections this week.
Last Five Winners:
The Market Leaders
For the first time that I can remember, a venue plays host to a PGA Tour event for the second consecutive week as the players remain at Muirfield Village for The Memorial this week. As these strange and challenging times continue to set new precedents, we do at least have active current and course form for over half of the field, and we will be looking to go a step better than last week and get a selection back on the podium. Bryson Dechambeau (9/1) arrives as the slight market favourite having won on his last start two weeks ago, and having a win at the 2018 Memorial to back that up. Dechambeau is a very different player to then, and albeit a better one, I'm not sure that the adaptations to his game increase his chances at Muirfield Village. Length here is certainly advantageous but, as we saw with Morikawa last week, the real benefit comes in the accuracy of the approach shots, and that is the one area where Dechambeau has been most lacking this season. From 100-150 yards he ranks outside the top 100, and it is this that puts me off backing him this week on a course where the winning score will almost certainly be pushing 20 under par. As always, Bryson cannot be ruled out, but it's a no from me here.
Justin Thomas (10/1) looked the certain winner for much of last week's event, even trading as low as 1/33 on Betfair, but he was pipped by the hot putter of Morikawa in the cruellest of fashion. That will make Justin even more determined here, and he has to be a significant contender this week. He has back to back top 10s here before last week, and the course synergy combined with the drive that will result from that defeat makes Thomas a dangerous prospect this week. Rory Mcilroy (12/1) typically fairs well here and has an 8th and a 4th from two of his last three starts. His form over the last month has been unspectacular, but there is always a chance with Rory, and a good putting week should see him go close. Last year's winner Patrick Cantlay (14/1) finished strongly last week to post a 7th placed finish and I fancy him more this week than last. The focus will be elsewhere with the return of Tiger Woods and the story of Thomas and Morikawa, and I feel Cantlay could well fly under the radar.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
I have stayed away from the top of the market this week. The depth of quality is so high and the margin taken is over 50% for the field top 10 which I feel has left value with a few outsiders further down the market, and that includes my headline selection; Brendon Todd. Although he was absent last week, Todd has shown good form since the restart including sharing the lead with Dustin Johnson going into the final round of the Travelers Championship, and he followed that up with three good rounds before again falling away on day 4 at the Rocket Mortgage in Detroit. Todd has three wins on the PGA Tour, and in 2020 has two Challenge Tour wins as well as the highest finish of 4th at the RSM Classic in Georgia. He would be less than half of this price in any ordinary week but is one that seems to have been ignored amongst the bright lights of the big names.
In three previous visits to Muirfield Todd has two top 20s, and his consistent long game ideally suits this tight and often challenging venue. There are a lot of similarities with TPC River Highlands where he led after three rounds just 4 weeks ago. The price is far too big, and I have had 2 points e/w at 150/1.
Other Betting Tips
Ian Poulter has been playing some very good golf lately; rediscovering the form of early 2019, and no doubt invigorated by the prospect of qualifying for a delayed Ryder Cup which will take place in September of next year. Ian has made his last 9 cuts and posted a top 5 finish here last week. That was on his first appearance at Muirfield in over 10 years, and he will be brimming with confidence going into the main event here amongst the keynote names like Woods, Mcilroy, and Koepka. Poults has an extremely consistent game, similar to Todd, and has been putting exceptionally well of late. His iron game from within 175 yards is one of the best on the Tour, and I expect a strong challenge. I am backing him with 1 point e/w at 70/1.
Sepp Straka is another player who has significantly raised his game since the restart and seems overpriced to continue the good form this week. Finishes of 8th in Dallas, and then 14th here last week don't point towards a chance of less than 1%, and his double digits under par score, if repeated, will have him challenging for at least the place money at a fantastic price. Straka is another with a great long game, as all of our players have this week, and he will set himself up plenty of chances for birdie around this setup. If his consistency holds up this could look the bet of the week come Sunday. I recommend 1 points e/w at 125/1.
Following a rolling profit of 463 points in 2019, I am looking for an even better 2020. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event on the European and PGA Tours, and suggest a suitable staking plan.
|European Tour||-81 points|
|PGA Tour||+11 points|