Mayakoba Betting Tips

Mayakoba Golf Classic Tips

Mayakoba Golf Classic Betting Tips

Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers. For the latest golf betting odds for the RSM Classic, make sure to head over to Bet UK’s online betting and live in-play betting markets.

Rob Cobley’s Mayakoba Golf Classic Betting Tips

Abraham Ancer - 16/1 To Win Harold Varner - 66/1 To Win Camillo Villegas -125/1 To Win

The Course

El Camaleon Golf Club, Playa Del Carmen - México - Par 71, 6,987 Yards

We head south of the border this week on the PGA Tour as the players travel to the popular resort of Playa Del Carmen one hour from Cancun for the 12th staging of the Mayakoba Golf Classic. Between 2007-2012 this event was played in February alongside the World Matchplay but took its place as a full Tour event in 2013. With the move to November, conditions became more manageable, and the average winning score has dropped -15 to -20 in this calm, sunny Mexican oasis. El Cameleon was designed in 2007 by Greg Norman and is a somewhat player friendly resort venue where low scores would always be expected from these players. Unusually for a PGA Tour course these days it measures under 7,000 yards and has a links-like feel to it besides the Gulf of Mexico.

The oceanside location of El Cameleon is its primary defence. The wind often dictates winning scores here. This week the forecast is calm, and I’d expect a winning score somewhere between 20 and 24 under par. The fairways are tight and mostly lined with trees which do offer some protection from the wind, but that shouldn't be a factor this week. With Cameleon playing at its easiest, I’m going to be looking at players with high birdie percentage stats to challenge what could play as little more than a fancy pitch and putt.

If the players miss the fairways, they will have mostly clean lies, and the trees are the only real hazard they could face ahead of the approach shots. Some of the greens are small, and all are slow, allowing the players to be aggressive with the approaches. Par 4 scoring will be essential, as will a good mid-iron game. The greens are as you would expect from a resort venue with little significant bunkering, rough, or runoff areas to protect them, meaning even errant shots will be punished far less than at most Tour events.

Last Five Winners:

Year Winner Score
2019 Brendon Todd -20
2018 Matt Kuchar -22
2017 Patton Kizzire -19
2016 Pat Perez -21
2015 Graeme McDowell -18

The Market Leaders

An uncharacteristically strong field heads to the Mayakoba Classic this week as the players compete in the last PGA Tour event of 2020. Justin Thomas 6/1 heads the market and has only made one appearance here way back in 2014 when he posted a 24th placed finish in his rookie season. Thomas has all the attributes to compete here. He has won the Sony Open at Waialae on an incredibly similar course, and his form is solid with top 10 finishes in three of his last four events including a 4th place at The Masters most recently. For me, he isn't enough of a consistent winner of regular Tour events to justify the price and might be one that is here more for the surf than the golf, so I will be leaving him alone.

Brooks Koepka 11/1 has seen a significant uplift in his form over recent weeks with the former World number one posting back to back top 10 finishes for the first time in over a year. Similarly to Thomas, Brooks had only played here once when he missed the cut in 2013 in his rookie season, and his motivations for being here can also be legitimately questioned. At double the price of Thomas, I wouldn't entirely rule out any value in the price, but as a one-off end of season event on the Mexican Gulf, I'm looking for someone with more motivation to win.

Harris English 14/1 is a player that has rightfully seen market support here having won the event back in 2013 and with three top 10 finishes in his last five starts including at the RSM Classic two weeks ago on a similar course. English was a huge talent, and is a great wind player, but lost his way for a few years as driving and putting problems ate away at him. He seems to have gotten over the worst of those, and back in familiar territory where he has also won the team event that used to be held here with Matt Kuchar for three consecutive years bodes well. The price does, however, represent almost no value on a player that is six years without a win.

Rob’s Betting Tips

Headline Golf Betting Tip

Abraham Ancer: 16/1 To Win

Abraham Ancer is the highest-ranked golfer ever to come out of Mexico, and the World number 19 is looking to take the only event held in Mexico for the first time in his career. Ancer has top 10 finishes here in two of the last three years and arrives in outstanding form having not missed a cut in eight months and having finished 13th in his last event at Augusta. Abraham is probably the most motivated player in the field. He saw his compatriot Carlos Ortiz win four weeks ago, and would love to follow suit here. He has a tidy tee to green game and has finished 16 under par or better in two of the last three appearances here. If he can make an improvement of just one stroke per round on that score, then he will almost certainly be at the winning number. Given that his game is in such improved shape from last year, I expect a significant challenge from Ancer. 3 points e/w at 16/1.

Other Tips

Harold Varner: 66/1 To Win

Harold Varner loves a short links course and will be right at home here at El Camaleon. In four starts here, he has two top-six finishes, and he has been at the top of the PGA Tour leaderboards since lockdown with a best-placed 4th among a host of top 25s. Varner can control his ball excellently and will thrive in the tougher conditions that are forecasted this week. He putts excellently on Bermuda greens, and with two top 15s in his last four starts, he represents excellent value in this (relatively) weakened field.

Camillo Villegas: 125/1 To Win

Camilo Villegas was being cheered on by most of the golfing World two weeks ago where he posted a 6th placed finish at the RSM Classic. Villegas recently went through the personal heartbreak of losing his 22-month-old daughter Mia, and there would be no more popular outcome than a victory for the highly likeable Columbian. Camillo has enjoyed almost all of his golfing success in Florida where conditions are entirely similar to Mayakoba. He has played here five times, missing the cut just once and, with his low flight and ability to shape the ball will be another who will enjoy the tougher challenge here this week. His putting at the RSM Classic was exceptional, and if he carries that on here then he represents a real threat at a very enticing price. 2 points e/w at 125/1

2020 P&L

Following a rolling profit of 463 points in 2019, I am looking for an even better 2020. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event on the European and PGA Tours, and suggest a suitable staking plan.

Tour Points
European Tour -174 points
PGA Tour +44 points
Total -130 points