John Deere Classic Golf Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers. For the latest golf betting odds for John Deere Classic, make sure to head over to Bet UK’s online betting and live in-play betting markets.
Rob Cobley’s John Deere Classic Tips
TPC Deere Run - Silvis, Illinois - Par 71, 7,268 Yards
After several weeks at new venues, the PGA Tour returns to an old favourite as TPC Deere Run maintains it’s slot as the pre Open Championship venue for this week’s John Deere Classic in Illinois. Some ninety five miles South East of the town of Cedar Rapids, this DA Weibring 1999 design is one of the easiest venues on the Tour. The 78 bunkers and 4 water hazards (realistically in play on 5 holes) are largely avoidable for these players meaning there is very little protection at a venue that usually yields very low scoring.
Greens in regulation are crucial, as is a hot putter in what is essentially a competition to see who can make the most birdies with very few bogies around.The 2018 winning score was nearly 30 under par, and with a spot at The Open available to the winner, this largely inexperienced field will be going all out to take the title this week at Deere Run.
Last Five Winners
The Market Leaders
Low scoring American Daniel Berger (9/1) is the market favourite heading into this week in Illinois as he aims to convert two top ten finishes in his last four starts into his third win of his PGA Tour career. Berger is a wonderfully aggressive golfer who excels best, but not only, on venues where he can open his shoulders, be aggressive with his irons, and let his hot, albeit streaky, putter fire him into contention. Deere Run is perfectly accommodating to that type of golf with winners profiles of the likes of Dechambeau, Kim, and Moore achieving success playing in the exact same way. Daniel has played this event twice before with a 5th on his debut in 2017 followed up by a less impressive return of 33rd two years later. He definitely justifies his strong market position, but in such a notoriously open event looks just a little too short for my liking.
Brian Harman (11/1) won this event back in 2014, and the in form American has top 20s in four of his last five starts on Tour, including a 5th last time out at The Travellers. Harman is a very tidy left hander who doesn't hit the ball as far as most but who has a great mid to short iron game, and really excels with the putter. A winning score of better than 20 under par, and that sets up ideally for Harman. His game hasn't peaked so far this season despite his consistency, and he is another I find just a little too short in this deep field.
Korea's Sungjae Im picked up the first win of his career at the Honda Classic last year, but form has been a struggle since that time, and he has a solitary result of 26th on his one and only appearance here at Deere Run. Im is undoubtedly one of the premier talents on Tour when his game comes together, but as time moves on that seems to happen all too infrequently. There was a run of good form prior to that result at PGA National, and I feel I need to see far more from Im to justify being the third favourite here, which seems to be largely based on reputation alone. Deere Run also doesn't suit his game particularly well. No bet.
Rob's Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
Keith Mitchell: 80/1 To Win
Keith Mitchell is a PGA Tour winner having claimed the Honda Classic back in 2019, and that win started a stretch of fantastic form for Mitchell which saw him achieve a number of top 10s over the remainder of the year. The break for Covid couldn't have come at a much worse time for him, but I have seen signs in his game and results lately that suggest to me that he could soon be back at the top of the game. The best return in the last couple of months for Mitchell was at the AT&T where he finished inside the top 30 on 14 under par, and it is at these lower scoring venues where I see him having most of his future success.
Back in 2019, Mitchell played this event and finished 7th, and I think that in this deep and flat field he looks tremendous value. He was third at the Wells Fargo six weeks ago behind just Mcilroy and Hovland, and the week before at the matchplay made the third most birdies of the 64 players in the field on the way to another 3rd placed return. He looks the standout bet, and i have backed him with 2 Points e/w at 80/1
Troy Merritt: 40/1 To Win
In form Troy Merritt has top 8 finishes in five of his last nine starts, and the 35 year old agonisingly missed out on a third PGA Tour win last week when losing in a playoff. Had his approach to the opening playoff hole been a yard shorter he would almost certainly have taken the title, and if those fine margins can move in his favour this week Merritt will go close.
Merritt shot 19 under par at the Byron Nelson last month, and his game has only improved since. That was good enough for 7th place and would be similar here, but I believe that with last week's playoff loss still smarting Merritt has the motivation and means to go out and take the title at Deere Run. I recommend 2 Points e/w at 40/1.
Following a rolling profit of 300 points for the 2019 & 2020 seasons, I am looking for a great 2021, and have some fantastic bets lined up for events throughout the year on both the PGA and European Tours. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event, and suggest a suitable staking plan.