Written By Robert Cobley - 26th February 2020
Honda Classic Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers.
The Champion Course, PGA National Resort & Spa - Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, USA - Par 70, 7125 Yards
The PGA Tour heads back over the Southern border following last week's WGC event in Mexico, and straight to Jupiter, some 80 miles north of Miami - home of Tiger Woods, and also one of the toughest tests in modern golf at the Tom Fazio designed PGA National.
PGA National underwent a series of changes in 1990 & 2014 under the stewardship of Jack Nicklaus to toughen it up, and turn it from resort course into one of the most feared tracks on the PGA Tour circuit. With tight fairways, 107 bunkers, and water in play on 13 of the 18 holes, a winning score of anywhere between 6 and 13 under is typically sufficient to take home the trophy.
Whoever prevails Sunday night will have had to negotiate holes 15-17, more widely known as the "Bear Trap" following the redesign from the Golden Bear (Nicklaus). There is a premium on straight driving and wind players are often successful at PGA National.
Last Five Winners:
The Market Leaders
Tommy Fleetwood (10/1) assumes the unusual tag of favourite for a top level PGA Tour event as he leads the market going into the Honda Classic in Florida. Fleetwood is certainly a good player who is in great form, and in his only other visit to PGA National two years ago, he did finish an impressive 4th place on 6 under par in tough conditions behind Justin Thomas. More recently Tommy has been solid but unspectacular with a range of top 20 challenges without seriously pushing to win any titles. His game is a great fit for this tough, blustery course, but with conditions forecast to be calm, and in a stellar field, I don't have Tommy as the stand out favourite at all, and will be looking deeper into the field for the value this week.
Behind the Englishman is 29 year old US World number one Brooks Koepka (10/1) who continues his relative struggles here in Florida. After proving himself as the best golfer in Major championships throughout last year, Koepka has struggled quite disappointingly to continue that form over the last six injury hit months and he comes to what has been a largely unfavourable venue trying to put that behind him. Koepka's record at PGA national doesn't stand out with a 2nd place two years ago his only top 25 in 5 starts. The tough nature of the course should suit Brooks, but it is a mentally challenging course and that is where he has at times struggled to prove himself as the best. A few bad shots can easily see him lose focus, and whilst in a run of bad form this isn't a good place to break that so he is one that i will leave alone this week.
Rickie Fowler (12/1) has a very impressive record in Florida, and nowhere more so than at PGA National. With three top 6 finishes, including a win in the last three years, Fowler is always high up the market here. His golf lately has, however been suspect, and for me he offers no value whatsoever.
Rob’s Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
Thirty three year old Billy Horschel has been a regular at the top of the leaderboards at venues across Florida including Sawgrass, Doral, and most notably here at PGA National where he has top 15 finishes in three of the last four years, with a high finish of 4th back in 2018. Billy loves the bermuda greens, and is an excellent wind player so it is no surprise to see that this state has seen some of his best finishes throughout an impressive and ever improving career.
Over the past couple of weeks, Horschel has carried on his impressive form from the Asian swing at the end of 2019 to achieve back to back top 10s in California on the west coast in amongst some of the strongest fields of the year,. Coming to this event in familiar surroundings and without a whole host of the top names who finished above him at Pebble Beach and Riviera, Horschel has an excellent chance. He is a disciplined player who controls his ball magnificently, particularly in tough conditions. He can maintain a score and is incredibly consistent when in form, as supported by the most recent back to back top 10s. He should be a lot shorter this week, and is one of the leading chances for me. I will be having 2 points e/w at 25/1.
Venezuelan Jhonattan Vegas played in the Puerto Rico Open last week in absence from the WGC mexico Championship, and he closed with a stunning 10 under par round of 61 to finish in 9th place behind winner Viktor Hovland. That round, and performance were off no surprise as Vegas is playing some excellent golf this year, all around the World. With just one missed cut in his last eight starts, Vegas arrives at a familiar venue where he, as Horschel, has performed strongly in the past. Back in 2017, Vegas secured a high of 4th, and has only missed one cut here in eight starts and managed three other top 20s. With a weaker than usual field arriving at PGA National due to its proximity to the Players Championship, this is a great chance for Vegas, and he is worth a small play of 1 point e/w at 66/1.
Scotland's Russel Knox has finishes of 2nd and 3rd at PGA National, and is another who could well out perform his price this week. He has made four of his last six cuts, and posted two top 20 finishes in that time. He arrives on the back of a two week break, and has stated that he is pushing for a big season in order to make the Ryder Cup team. That starts here, and he is also worth a small bet with 1 point e/w at 66/1.
Following a rolling profit of 463 points in 2019, I am looking for an even better 2020. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event on the European and PGA Tours, and suggest a suitable staking plan.
|European Tour||-53 points|
|PGA Tour||+74 points|
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