Hero World Challenge Golf Betting Tips

Written 2nd December 2019

World Hero Challenge Betting Tips

Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers.

For the latest golf betting odds for the World Hero Challenge, make sure to head over to Bet UK’s online betting markets.

Bet On The World Hero Challenge

The Course

Albany Golf Course - New Providence Island, Bahamas - Par 72, 7,400 Yards (Including 5 x Par 5s & 5 x Par 3s)

This week sees an unsanctioned event over in the Bahamas as eighteen of the World's best players get together in the Bahamas for the last tournament in North America of 2019. The Hero World Challenge was first played back in 1999 when Tom Lehman led a procession at Grayhawk to beat David Duval into submission. Since then, it spent 14 years at the elite Sherwood Country Club, where Tiger Woods was successful five times, before a year at Isleworth in 2014. Since then its new home has been Albany in this rather beautiful part of the Bahamas. Albany is home to many of the World's biggest names including Tiger Woods, Justin Rose and Bubba Watson and provides the perfect opportunity for a bit of a wind down before the Christmas break. That said, this tournament is still very competitive with a large number of World Ranking points, and the small matter of $1 million on offer to the winner. The Hero World Challenge always makes for a tremendous week with lots of birdies on this fairly easy seaside track.

Albany Golf Course was designed by Ernie Els and Greg Letsche fairly recently, and only opened back in 2010. It is a very exposed flat, linksy track bordering the Atlantic Ocean. Some of the more interesting features include huge man made sand dunes, and the rather unique layout of five par 5s and five par 3s. Being a links like course, there is very little by way of natural protection. The wind, when it does blow, certainly toughens things up a bit but, with a fairly placid forecast this week, scores are likely to be low. From the tee there is some bunkering off the fairways, and very light protection from thin, young trees that are unlikely to provide any real hazard. The greens are large and flat, and with four of the five par 5s being reachable in two a winning score of around 20 under par is once more likely to be the mark. This is a perfectly manicured course that is only open to members and their guests. The set up couldn't be any better for scoring. Par 5 scoring and birdie percentage are the key metrics here.

Last Five Winners:

Year Winner Score
2018 John Rahm -20
2017 Rickie Fowler -18
2016 Hideki Matsuyama -18
2015 Bubba Watson -25
2014 Jordan Spieth -16 (At Isleworth Golf Club)

The Field:

John Rahm (11/2 To Win)

Bet On John Rahm @ 11/2

John Rahm comes into this week on the back of sealing the Race to Dubai to complete what has been a fantastic year, lacking only in his first Major title that still eludes him. Rahm has the perfect game for Albany; hitting the ball long, straight, and with a red hot putting game that has seen him win his last two starts Worldwide. Rahm won this event comfortably last year on his first appearance, finishing four shits ahead of similarly big hitting Tony Finau. With two weeks between events, the travel from Asia should have no effect, and I expected the relaxed, newly crowned R2D winner to be nearer to 3/1. He is my main selection this week with a win only bet.

Justin Thomas (13/2 To Win)

Bet On Justin Thomas @ 13/2

Second favourite Justin Thomas is another recent winner having picked up the CJ Cup in Asia just six weeks ago. Thomas is a similarly potent player on this type of course, and last year he had the best scoring average on the Par 5s across the PGA Tour. If the wind blows, that will be a benefit to Thomas who is an excellent wind player,. but the calmer forecast might not play into his hands. With five weeks off, and not having finished in the top half on his previous two visits here, i am happy to leave Thomas alone.

Patrick Cantlay (9/1 To Win)

Bet On Patrick Cantlay @ 9/1

Cantlay makes just his second appearance at Albany having finished a very respectable 5th on his first visit here last year. Cantlay has had a solid year that saw him narrowly miss out on the Fedex Cup having been second behind Thomas headed to the final event at East Lake. This course suits him fairly well if his putting game is on, but coming off a long break, and lacking the power of some of the other main contenders, i'm not sure that this will be the week for Cantlay.

Dustin Johnson (10/1 To Win)

Bet On Dustin Johnson @ 10/1

Dustin Johnson has had a very disappointing year, with just one win worldwide back at the start of 2019, and having failed to contend in any of the big events that the former World number 1 would have been targeting at the start of the season. Johnson has had injury troubles, and is coming here on the back of a 3 month break. His record at Albany is generally solid if unspectacular with two top 1o finishes in his four events here. He is not a player i expect to contend to win this week.

Tiger Woods (10/1 To Win)

Bet On Tiger Woods @ 10/1

Tiger Woods returned from a two month break in impressive style at the Zozo Championship in Japan last month as he held off home favourite Hideki Matsuyama to record an incredible 59th worldwide career win. Woods was previously the host of this event, and is as familiar as anyone in the field with the Albany course where he lives. Tiger has turned up in this event three times, but has largely failed to contend; finishing in the top 10 of a limited field event on just one occasion (9th in 2017). The issue for Tiger seems to be his relative lack of length. With this year's field being full of big hitters, that could impact his chances, but a Tiger back in the winners circle is a dangerous animal, and he cannot be ruled out of contention.

Xander Schauffele (12/1 To Win)

Bet On Xander Schauffele @ 12/1

Xander Schauffele has been improving rapidly over the last few months after a disappointing start to 2019. That continued out in Asia as he posted top 10s in both of the 78 runner events, and his game is clearly taking shape. Xander played here for the first time last year and finished a credible mid field 8th. I expect more from him this year and he is definitely one that has a chance. Par 5 scoring will be critical for Schauffele. If he can keep up with the bigger hitters on the longer holes, he will be in contention come Sunday.

Webb Simpson (12/1 To Win)

Bet On Webb Simpson @ 12/1

Webb Simpson agonisingly missed out on finally claiming the RSM Classic title two weeks ago when he lost in a playoff, and will arrive in The Bahamas keen to get a win under his belt. Simpson is not a regular here, and is another that would be better served if the conditions were more blustery and challenging. On the greens Webb should perform as well as any, it is his long game that is the concern. With Albany being one of the more forgiving courses, and Simpson having arrived from another similar seaside track, he certainly cannot be ruled out of claiming a debut win, but i'd want twice the current price and for that reason he is no bet for me.

Justin Rose (12/1 To Win)

Bet On Justin Rose @ 12/1

Justin Rose is another of the field that calls this part of The Bahamas home, and Albany has been kind to the 39 year old Englishman over the past couple of years. Rose has finished 5th and 3rd the last two occasions that he has appeared here, both times on a score of 15 under par. If Justin is to step up and look to challenge for the title this time around, he feasibly needs to add another five strokes under par to that number, and I'm not sure that he's capable of that this week. Rose had a weak close to the European Tour's Race to Dubai; failing to finish in the top 20 in any tournament, and it is hard to see him challenging this week. He is not a play for me at the price.

Rickie Fowler (14/1 To Win)

Bet On Rickie Fowler @ 14/1

No player in this field has a better or more consistent record at Albany than Rickie Fowler. Fowler blew the field away two years ago, finishing six shots ahead of the third placed player, and has never finished outside of the top 5 on any of his visits to the island. That victory in 2018 was notable by the high winds and extremely difficult conditions encountered by the players, and that certainly helped Fowler, who is a renowned wind specialist, to win so convincingly. The concern with Fowler is that he arrives after nearly four months away from competitive golf, and he largely has failed to challenge this season. He might again threaten the top 5, but it is highly improbable to see him overtake the likes if Rahm and sail away with the win.

Bryson Dechambeau (14/1 To Win)

Bet On Bryson Dechambeau @ 14/1

Bryson Dechambeau made his debut here last year, closing with a 68 for a 12th place finish. Only once did Bryson manage to break 70, and that feature of his game would be cause for concern here. A fantastic player, who no doubt has the ability to win several major championships over the course of his career, this is perhaps not the ideal test for him. The second half of the season was kinder to Dechambeau than the first, and I expect him to kick on and have a great year in 2020. This event might not be the ideal set up to kick that off, and I can leave him here.

Tony Finau (14/1 To Win)

Bet On Tony Finau @ 14/1

Tony Finau had a great debut here last year and, but for a disappointing opening round of 72 might have pushed eventual winner John Rahm all the way. FInau has the ideal game for Albany. His strengths lie in his length and his ability to shoot low numbers. The setup, and the mild, calm, conditions this week provide an excellent chance for Finau to elevate himself into contention once more, but his form is worrying. FInau finished outside the top 50 in reduced field events in Asia, and there are a number of players who performed better than him that are in the field this week. Is the course enough of an advantage for him to contend? The answer for me is no.

Patrick Reed (18/1 To Win)

Bet On Patrick Reed To Win @ 18/1

Patrick Reed has been flying all over the World in the past few weeks. He has played the co sanctioned events in Korea and Japan, and then been involved in the end of season shootout on for the European Tour's Race to Dubai. Another who lives locally, Reed finished 2nd on his opening appearance here in 2015, and has two other top 10s in his three most recent starts here. Fatigued, and largely out of sorts in Dubai, Reed is hard to throw my weight behind here.

Gary Woodland (20/1 To Win)

Bet On Gary Woodland To Win @ 20/1

Gary Woodland comes to the end of a year that must surely have exceeded his wildest expectations having claimed the US Open at Pebble Beach back in June. Woodland is perhaps an under performer given his talent, and that sensational win does stand alone as the highlight of an otherwise unexceptional run of results. In Asia, Woodland looked to be getting back to near his best as he scored two top 10s in the limited field events, and with an 8th on his cv from his only appearance here last year, Woodland looks one of the more backable of the mid price players in the field.

Jordan Spieth (22/1 To Win)

Bet On Jordan Spieth To Win @ 22/1

Jordan Spieth is another who has endured a frustrating year; his first without a win since he appeared on the Tour back in 2013 at the John Deere. Spieth is the antithesis to the likes of Woodland, and for years has gotten the absolute most from his talents; not least due to his phenomenal putting. That and the rest of his short game are still very strong, but the long game is sadly a bit of a mess. From the tee Spieth cannot hit fairways, he does so with a percentage of under fifty, and unless he can fix that he is looking at another annus horribilis in 2020. One spark of encouragement is that you can contend from the Rough at Albany, and SPieth's wedge and short game have seen him inside the top six every time he has shown up here. The price seems to big given that his strengths are so magnified here, and he is one of my picks this week.

Matt Kuchar (22/1 To Win)

Bet On Matt Kuchar To Win @ 22/1

Matt Kuchar returns to Albany having missed this event last year amidst a run of fairly average form. Kuch has made just one cut in his last three events spanning three months, and there is little reason to be excited about his chances this week. Matt is another who would have fared better in tougher conditions, but it is hard to see him improving on his best showing in 2016 when he finished third here. No bet.

Henrik Stenson (25/1 To Win)

Bet On Henrik Stenson To Win @ 25/1

Henrik Stenson has found joy here in the past with finishes of 2nd and 4th amongst his three trips to The Bahamas. Those were in perhaps happier times and, although he is playing regularly, good finishes have been sadly hard to come by for the Swede who has just one top 20 in his last ten events. Albany allows him the unusual luxury of being able to open his shoulders and unleash his driver, but the rest of his game isn't in the kind of shape it needs to be to take the title against players of this quality.

Kevin Kisner (25/1 To Win)

Bet On Kevin Kisner To Win @ 25/1

Kevin Kisner makes only his second start here having finished 12th in 2017. Kisner has a solid game, but that's unlikely to get the job done this week with so many of his competitors capable of threatening the 20 under par mark. It's been nearly 7 months since his last top 10 and i wouldn't make him a place bet this week. Certainly no win bet on Kisner.

Bubba Watson (28/1 To Win)

Bet On Bubba Watson To Win @ 28/1

Bubba Watson was a very different player when he won this event back in 2015 on its first trip to Albany. That game that also brought him two Masters green jacket has eluded him of late, and it is no surprise to seem him back after a couple of years away trying to get his game back moving into the new season. Watson hasn't lost his touch completely, he is still shooting scores in the high 60s and low 70s, but he isn't doing enough at the moment to get anywhere near contending for titles. That is my worry again this week, and i don't see him going low enough to take the win here.

Rob's Golf Betting Tips:

John Rahm | 4 Points Win @ 11/2

Tiger Woods | 2 Points e/w @ 10/1

Jordan Spieth | 1 Point e/w @ 22/1

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