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Genesis Invitational Golf Betting Tips

Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers. For the latest golf betting odds for the Genesis Invitational Golf, make sure to head over to Bet UK’s online betting and live in-play betting markets.

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Rob Cobley’s World Tour Championship Betting Tips

Tony Finau - 25/1 To Win Max Homa - 55/1 To Win

The Course

Riviera Country Club, Pacific Palisades - Los Angeles, California, USA - Par 71, 7340 Yards

A stone’s throw from Los Angeles’s centre sits this fantastic George Thomas design (that was updated in 2008 by Tom Fazio) called Riviera Country Club. Set deep in a canyon in the Pacific Palisades region of the city, Riviera is a mostly flat parkland course that has - and continues to - provide a significant test for the world’s best players early on in the year. Driving the ball at Riviera is not easy, with tight lines and tees pointing away from fairways requiring total concentration, and the ability to shape the ball both ways from the tee is imperative. The fairways are Kikuyu grass, more common in the southern hemisphere. They are beautiful to hit from, but should the players find the rough; it is contrastingly as tough to recover from making for a high premium on good straight driving here. The tree lines create large natural dog legs, and there is good, penal bunkering in the landing zones for all length hitters, making this a very tough first shot golf course where clean ball strikers from the likes of Couples to Faldo, and even Adam Scott, invariably prevail.

The greens’ approaches are just as challenging and require as much creativity as the tee shots, with the players facing small, well-protected, undulating poa annua putting surfaces. With flags cut often within a few feet of the greens’ edges, it is essential that the players take their medicine and know when to attack, and as importantly, where to miss. The Kikuyu does allow for creativity around the greens. Bubba Watson and Phil Mickelson, both short game specialists, have seen high degrees of success here due to the importance of a great short game, and imagination around the greens.

Course knowledge and a previous strong performance here are critical indicators to success, with a large number of multiple winners over the years. Players who can shape the ball, who hit high numbers of greens in regulation and those that can get out of trouble most often will be well placed to succeed this week. This is not a putting contest, and anyone hitting over 70% of greens in regulation will be very strongly placed to challenge. Something to note is how well the course sets up for left-handers. Phil Mickelson has won here, and Bubba Watson has won three of the last six. There is also a correlation to Augusta National, and players who perform well at Riviera often go on to have a good run at The Masters.

Last Five Winners

Year Winner Score
2020 Adam Scott -11
2019 J.B. Holmes -14
2018 Bubba Watson -12
2017 Dustin Johnson - 17
2016 Bubba Watson -15

The Market Leaders

Dustin Johnson (11/2) heads up a typically stellar field this week in California for the Genesis Invitational. Dustin arrives having skipped last week’s Pebble Beach Invitational following his win in Saudi Arabia. He will be in comfortable surroundings at an event where he has finished in the top ten on seven of his last eight starts, including a runaway victory in 2017. Johnson is in exceptional form, having won three of his previous four events following his Masters win in November, and very hard to oppose. The line is short but fair.

John Rahm (12/1) has been floating around the edges of contention lately with top tens in abundance, without the real prospect of contending on a Sunday, with the possible exception of Torrey Pines, where he eventually failed to catch Patrick Reed. Rahm is one of the world’s most talented players, but currently appears to be playing at about 85%. In his two visits here, he has finishes of 9th and 17th, which are as you would expect from a course where the cream does rise to the top. I think he is a little bit short currently in some areas, and he would have to excel to finish above Johnson. He is a no bet for me.

Rory McIlroy (12/1) has finishes of 4th and 5th here in the last couple of years. Rory shapes the ball the right way for Riviera, and it is a surprise to me that they are his best finishes at a course where he really should be picking up multiple victories. Of late, McIlroy’s performances have mirrored those of Rahm; he seems to be coasting along in his comfort zone, and that won’t be enough to win at a tough and exacting course like this one.

Justin Thomas (12/1) was second here in 2019, but his showings have been otherwise fairly ordinary. Having only made one cut so far this season I don’t expect much from Thomas this week, and he lacks the ability of the other market leaders to just turn it up a notch in a given week. Justin is a momentum player, and he currently has none. He is not somebody that I will be backing here.

Rob’s Golf Betting Tips

Headline Betting Tip

Tony Finau: 25/1 To Win

Tony Finau remains on just one PGA Tour win as he follows on last season’s successful yet frustrating season with another which has seen him finish 4th, 2nd, 2nd in his previous three events. Finau took last week off having finished runner up to Johnson in Saudi Arabia where he was by far the closest challenger. Finau loves Riviera and was 2nd here in 2018. The course sets up well for him, he carries the ball a long way with the driver and can keep his approach shots flighted low under the tree canopy to counter the elements present in abundance in a freezing cold America this week.

I feel that the floodgates will really open for Tony once he gets a win, and his price will shorten each week accordingly. If he had turned one of those close seconds into a win, he would be half the price, and this seems value for a player who is realistically in the world’s top five on current form. I will be backing him here, and an excellent price, with 3 points e/w at 25 /1.

Other Betting Tip

Max Homa: 55/1 To Win

Max Homa played some excellent golf last week at Pebble Beach, and his 7th placed finish was his third top 20 in the previous four weeks. Homa is a dynamic and exciting player in Matthew Wolf’s ilk who is coming through as part of the next generation in the US. Max seems to have some refinement to his game in the same way as last week’s winner Daniel Berger does, and he is no stranger to Riviera. Last year he finished 5th, including two rounds of 67, so he can go low around here. Combined with an excellent week last week where, if not for a bad end to his round on Saturday, he could well have seriously challenged for the title, Homa should be brimming with confidence, and is an excellent bet with 2 points e/w at 55/1.

2021 P&L

Following a rolling profit of 300 points for the 2019 & 2020 seasons, I am looking for a great 2021, and have some great bets lined up for events throughout the year on both the PGA and European Tours. Each week I will pick between two to four selections at each event, and suggest a suitable staking plan.

Tour Points
European Tour -32
PGA Tour -46
Total -78
18/02/2021