Hero English Open Golf Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers.
Forest of Arden Country Club - Birmingham, England - Par 72, 6,958 Yards
It has been 15 long years since competitive golf was seen in this corner of the West Midlands, but these unusual times see the English Open sponsored by Hero return to the magnificent Forest of Arden as the six week UK swing gets into full flow down in leafy Warwickshire. The Forest of Arden is an archetypal inland English parkland course. Tree lined and very similar to the likes of Woburn, and its near neighbour The Belfry. The tee shots are challenging with tight lines and punishment awaiting any errant shots both in the form of dense woodland, and thick rough which act as the defence for an otherwise largely toothless set up of under 7,000 yards.
There won't be much need for most of the field to be hitting many drivers this week. The premium will be on accuracy and approaching the slopey greens from the short grass will help to avoid the water and bunkering that are in play on most holes. There are nine water hazards which should be avoided, but act as a further punishment to the poorest of shots and will keep the players honest, particularly over the most challenging final four holes. An average long game, and accuracy combined with distance control on the irons will be the recipe for success this week in an event that really couldn't be any more open.
The Market Leaders
Joost Luiten (12/1) leads the market in what is an incredibly tight betting heat here at the Hero Open. With 23 players all 40/1 or less, the market really is reflective of the fact that the field is so tightly matched on a course that really can be conquered by any of these players on any given day. Luiten's favouritism otherwise does make sense. He has posted back to back top 20s before taking last week off, and there are few better iron players in the field than the formerly prolific Dutchman. Luiten's game is strong and steady to borrow a disastrous political analogy, and if he plays to the level he returned to competitive play with in Austria then he should find himself in contention on his first visit here.
Andy Sullivan (16/1) is a stand out name in the market with the Ryder Cup star arriving on the back of a 4th place finish at Close House in his first event in 5 months. That is ominous form from "Sully" who has six European Tour victories to his name, and who is another that has an almost flawless game for this type of shorter, tighter venue. He is one I expect to strongly contend. Thomas Detry (18/1) missed the cut last week, and still seems to be garnering a surprising level of market support given his repeatedly lacklustre showings. I don't expect significant improvement from him this week.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
Andy Sullivan is the stand out World class player in this field as everyone turns up on their best form, and there is ample evidence to suggest that his form is above the majority of those others present in Warwickshire this week, and that is an ominous look for the rest of the field. Sullivan is a multiple time Tour winner, twice in the UK, and he is desperate to get back to the levels that saw him inside the World's top 50; a position that has dropped from 36th to 151st over the past four years, and Ryder Cup qualification for next year in Wisconsin that would accompany it. A good UK swing would go a huge way towards seeing him achieve that goal, and on the back of an impressive 4th place finish in similar conditions at Close House, Sullivan has to be the bet here. For me he should be the clear market favourite. He is a better player than Luiten, more in form, and more suited to the conditions. This is a bet to get excited over, and I have had 3 points e/w @ 16/1.
Other Betting Tips
Justin Harding is a player that has served us well over the past year, and it was great to see the South African back in contention with a solo 3rd place finish at Close House last week. Harding is a hugely underrated player who is one of the best ball strikers on Tour, and he showed just how big a player he can become week in, week out by staying in contention right up until the final 4 holes in unfamiliar conditions last week in the North East. More used to the sunshine of Somerset West some 30 miles north of Cape Town in his native South Africa, a wet and windy Forest of Arden might not seem the ideal venue for him to claim a second European Tour title, but Harding's game looks in such excellent shape that he has to be a selection this week. Harding has shown multiple times what he is capable of when his game is at its heights including a top 10 at last year's Masters. I would rank him as the most significant challenger to Sully this week, and I'm happy to have him in the book with 2 points e/w at 25/1.
Matthew Southgate is a player that has without a doubt not reached his full potential. He is still without a win on the European Tour despite leading with two to play at the Dunhill Links last year, and two top 10 finishes at The Open Championship with a high of 7th back in 2017 at Birkdale. Matt is a strong and powerful ball striker who excels in these conditions around the UK, but who is consistently let down by his performance on the greens. Last week his long game was again in perfect working order, but he ranked outside the top 100 for strokes gained putting, and it was again this which prevented him challenging despite a couple of good rounds including being one of the few players to shoot under par on Sunday. Matt will get his win on Tour, and if he can make small improvements this week then there is no reason why it can't be here. The price is too big, and I recommend having just 1 point e/w at 100/1.
Following a rolling profit of 463 points in 2019, I am looking for an even better 2020. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event on the European and PGA Tours, and suggest a suitable staking plan.
|European Tour||-91 points|
|PGA Tour||+31 points|