Celtic Classic Golf Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers.
The Twenty Ten Course - Celtic Manor, Newport, Wales - Par 71, 7354 Yards
The Twenty Ten course at Celtic Manor is best known for hosting a thrilling four day Ryder Cup a decade ago, but this timeless Ross McMurray creation is a suitable setting as the fourth leg of the UK swing kicks off in Wales on Thursday. The twenty Ten is an amalgamation of nine new holes, and nine holes from the old Robert Trent Jones II designed Wentworth Hills course. The dramatic scenery is undeniable as the course winds its way around the River Usk, and water is an ever present hazard being in play on ten of the holes.
A largely long, flat, and exposed course which was designed purposefully for matchplay ahead of the Ryder Cup, some of the players have been critical of its suitability for stroke play events such as this given the extreme risk and reward scenarios in play on several holes. The criticism seems weak to me. Players who are intelligent and able to strategise will come out on top, and it offers another dimension to the event that is often lacking on the more straightforward venues in play week in, week out. That is born out by the strong profile of winners here in the past with players such as Ryder Cuppers Luiten, Colsaerts and Donaldson being successful in the past.
The course is varied with a links like feel to the opening six holes, followed by a stretch around the many lakes on site before the field arrives at the drivable par 4 15th. This hole has a bail out area to the right for anyone not wanting to take on the green, and again provides an excellent hole in any format. The final four holes are very demanding. Players will need a good solid long game this week, and I expect good ball strikers to challenge.
The Market Leaders
Last week's winner Andy Sullivan (11/1) heads the market on the back of finishes of 4th, 41st, and 1st in his last three events, and it is understandable in this weak field. Sullivan is a tidy player who has always been a little overrated to me, although we picked him the week before, I don't see him as prolific, or as likely to follow up that win here. The win last week was his first for five years and, although it was likely to come, I don't see it being the start of something big for Sullivan. He has played in three events here with two missed cuts and no top 10s so the course form is certainly not weighted in his favour. For me he is one to pass by. Joost Luiten (12/1) was at the USPGA last week and performed well by making the cut, but it is a long way to South Wales from San Francisco for the 2014 champion, and it is perhaps a step too far to expect him to turn up and win although the course has been consistently good for him over the years. The price is fair, but i think there is better value elsewhere.
Thomas Detry (16/1) has a second place finish two weeks ago before a more disappointing return last time out, and he fits the bill in a number of areas this week. He has a great long game, and I think he will be right in contention on his first visit to Celtic Manor. I think he will find it very much to his liking. Follow Belgian Thomas Pieters (20/1) has one previous visit here having finished just outside the top 40 back in 2014, and is another well suited to the test provided on the Twenty Ten. This is his first outing in several months, and it will be interesting to see what form he is in. If he is playing well he should also challenge.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
The price of Callum Shinkwin this week has shocked me, and I make him perhaps the best value bet of the year to date. Callum's strengths lie almost exclusively in his fantastic long game. He can carry the ball huge distances, plays well in wet and windy conditions, and has looked in good form with some flashes of real promise in the last couple of events including a top 30 at the Forest of Arden which isn't half as well suited to his strengths as Celtic Manor. I was fortunate enough to spend the final round of the 2017 Scottish Open with Callum when his double bogey 7 down the last led to a playoff which he lost to Rafa Cabrera Bello. What I saw first hand in that round was the way he handles British golf, and the risk and reward element which should be much to his advantage this week.
All of the par 5s, and two of the par 4s are within reach for Shinkwin this week, and with his aggressive type of golf I am in no doubt about how he will take on the Twenty Ten this week. The former top amateur boxer is no stranger to being in the heat of the battle, and in this field he has one of his best chances of the year to land a long overdue victory. I am backing him with 2 points e/w @ 150/1.
Other Betting Tips
Thomas Detry is a similar player to Shinkwin in that he excels with his long game, and will find Celtic Manor a venue that he really enjoys. Detry has looked in menacingly good form over the past few events including that second place at the Hero Open. I find a lot of course similarities between the Twenty Ten and Le Golf National (another Ryder Cup venue) outside of Paris, and he has posted finishes of 16th and 8th in his last two stars there amongst elite fields. If Detry can bring that type of form to Celtic Manor, which seems a real possibility, then there is every chance that he will be contending for the title come Sunday afternoon. He is worth backing with 2 points e/w at 16/1.
My final selection was a bit of a coin flip between Ryan Fox and Sam Horsfield, and i have gone for the young Englishman as i expect him to have more success over the next 12 months, and there is no reason why that can't include here at Celtic Manor. Whilst Fox is more of a bomb it from the tee type, Horsfied is slightly more considered, though subtly no less aggressive in his style and approach. His sub 20 under par winning score at the Forest of Arden was hugely impressive, particularly given his tribulations on Saturday afternoon, and the following missed cut could be strangely just what he needs to refocus ahead of this event in Wales. There is ample motivation for Horsfield with the top 10 players in the mini order of merit over these events getting into the US Open, and he is almost certain to achieve that with another top 10 finish here. I feel he can achieve better than that, and i'm backing him to pick up his second victory of the season with 2 points e/w at 25/1.
Following a rolling profit of 463 points in 2019, I am looking for an even better 2020. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event on the European and PGA Tours, and suggest a suitable staking plan.
|European Tour||-98 points|
|PGA Tour||+43 points|