BMW Championship Golf Betting Tips

BMW Championship Betting Tips

Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers. For the latest golf betting odds for the BMW Championship, make sure to head over to Bet UK’s betting and live betting markets.

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The Course

The North Course, Olympia Fields Country Club - Illinois, USA - Par 70, 7,366 Yards

The North Course at Olympia Fields hosts its first professional men's event since Jim Furyk strolled to his first ever Major Championship win in 2003 where he beat all but one player in the field by seven shots or more. Olympia Fields has since hosted the Women's PGA Championship in 2017 and the US Amateur in 2015 which was won by Bryson Dechambeau, however this sees its return to the big time as host to the penultimate event of the Fedex Cup.

The North Course will be the longest par 70 in history to host a PGA Tour event outside of the majors, and some tough scoring amidst challenging conditions can be expected. The bluegrass rough has grown up severely over the past few weeks and hitting the fairways will be at a high premium this week. On a course where big hitting is also needed we are very much looking at those near the top of the total driving averages to have a significant advantage this week. Back in 2013 the fairways were incredibly narrow, but the USGA has been a little more generous this time around, as is to be expected in a non major championship setting. The greens are large, fast and slopey giving this event the feel of a major championship. I expect the very best players to challenge this week.

BMW Championship Winners:

Year Winner Score
2019 Justin Thomas -25
2018 Keegan Bradley -20
2017 Marc Leishman -23
2016 Dustin Johnson -23
2015 Jason Day -22

The Market Leaders

Following on from his win for us last week, America Dustin Johnson (7/1) leads the market this week which is little surprise given the nature of that 11 stroke victory combined with the many obvious course synergies. That was Johnson's second win since the Tour's resumption and despite some variable form in between, the tall, big hitting, former World number one provides the picture book contender this week. Johnson won the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick in 2016, but we really can't read anything into that as the challenge was entirely different. It is hard to see him not challenging this week.

In the absence of any sort of form for Rory McIlroy, John Rahm (8/1) has assumed second spot in the market following finishes of 13th and 6th in his last two starts, aligned with top 5 finishes in two of his three career BMW Championship starts. Rahm plays tough courses well, and lies second behind only Paul Casey for total driving on Tour. Rahm will be eager to contend seriously again after what, for him, has been a relatively barren spell and this could be his week. I do however feel the price is a little skinny.

Bryson Dechambeau (12/1) won the US Amateur here 5 years ago, and had been in great form prior to a couple of recent missed cuts. I feel he will go well again this week. Justin Thomas (12/1) is the reigning BMW Champion, and another who contends on long, tough courses mostly due to his outstanding fairway wood and long iron play. He can be a factor in any event at any time but I'm not excited about his price this week in comparison to some others.

The field this week is just 70 players.

Rob’s Golf Betting Tips

Headline Betting Tip

Bryson Dechambeau: 12/1 To Win

Bryson Dechambeau is the biggest hitter on Tour by some distance, and despite last week's missed cut I really fancy Dechambeau to bounce back this week and make a run at the Fedex Cup title over these final two events. Bryson is familiar and comfortable with Olympia Fields having won here back in 2015 against some top draw amateurs, and a long, fairly straight up and uncomplicated, course is exactly what he needs to get his 'A' game back. It isn't so much that his game has left him; indeed he was 4th in his last start before missing the Cut at the TPC Boston so there isn't a lot of improvement required this week to take that next step. In a reduced field of 70, and with 4 days golf guaranteed it is hard to see Dechambeau not challenging.

Although he will likely be up against some top class opposition as the top of the market typically congregates at the leaderboard summit over these final two events, I see Bryson as the main challenger to Johnson for the Fedex riches and I am happy to back him with 4 points e/w @ 12/1.

Other Betting Tips

Brendan Steele: 150/1 To Win

Brendan Steele is a talented multiple winner on Tour who has been appearing regularly in the top 10 over recent weeks. Although he hasn't always managed to maintain those high finishes there is enough to suggest that Steele, who ranks in the top 15 amongst this field for driving distance is very capable of putting together a challenge here. Steele finished in the top 6 behind Dustin Johnson at TPC River Highlands which is another relatively long par 70, and Steel indeed led by two strokes going into that final round. This is purely a value play, and I did consider other notable players, mostly Matthew Wolf, but in a limited field, and with my main bet being so short I feel there is only room for two selections, and a ten point overall stake. That is why i am also backing Steel with 1 point e/w at 150/1.

2020 P&L

Following a rolling profit of 463 points in 2019, I am looking for an even better 2020. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event on the European and PGA Tours, and suggest a suitable staking plan.

Tour Points
European Tour -54 points
PGA Tour +67 points
Total +13 points

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