Andalucia Masters Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers. For the latest golf betting odds for the Andalucia Masters, make sure to head over to Bet UK’s online betting and live in-play betting markets.
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Real Club Valderrama, San Roque - Cadiz, Spain - Par 71, 7,000 Yards (3x Par 5s)
The European Tour visits Spain this week for what is traditionally one of the biggest and best weeks on the Tour. This year is predictably different with the likes of Garcia, and Rahm who competed at the Tour Championship in the US unable to attend. There is however a strong European contingent that has made the journey following the UK Championship.
Valderrama itself is one of the oldest and most revered venues on the tour. One and a half hours south from Malaga, and an hour north of Gibraltar, Valderrama is a gem, one that I have been fortunate enough to have played several times. Whilst not the longest of courses, it is extremely tight and challenging with heavily tree lined, undulating fairways. The rough is not deep, but if you miss the fairway you are likely to be inhibited by one of the 2,000 cork trees lining the estate, and layups are commonplace, even for the straightest of hitters.
The greens are small and slopey, protected by significant bunkering, and measuring up to 13 on the stimpmeter to make the challenge all the more severe. Water is in play on several holes, including notably the par 5 4th and 17th holes. Good shotmakers will prevail here, and course form is a major factor in deciding who will contend.
Last Three Winners
The Market Leaders
Rasmus Hojgaard (11/1) continued to frustrate us last week. Having been put up as a selection in two of his last 4 events and only managing to place, he put in a fantastic performance to win the UK Championship at The Belfry by a shot from Justin Walters and Martin Kaymer. Hojgaard is full of promise and it will be interesting to see what the next twelve months hold for the impressive Norwegian prospect. This is his first visit to Valderrama, and the course should suit him well. He is a straight hitting player who putts well, and has a lovely short game. The lack of any course form concerns me as over the years very few players have turned up and won their first event at this Sanis gem. That is reason enough for me to pass him by this week in a reasonably strong and experienced field.
Martin Kaymer (12/1) looked certain to take the title at the Belfry for most of the final round on Sunday before some wayward driving on the 14th and 16th saw his hopes slide slowly away. The eventual third placed finish was Martin's best in some time and his game is certainly one that is moving in the right direction as he heads to Valderrama and then straight onto New York for the US Open at Winged Foot in a fortnight. Kaymer is well suited to Valderrama and has four top 10 finishes in seven starts here. If he is as motivated to compete here as he was last week, then there is no doubting his chances. The price does look a little on the slim side given the depth in the field, and Kaymer is another one to leave aside here although he certainly isn't without a chance.
Thomas Detry (14/1) finished 8th here last year, and has been again in good form over the UK swing with a 2nd place finish before taking last week off. Valderrama is not a course I would necessarily pick him to perform at however, making him another to set aside.
Bernd Wiesberger (14/1) was the favourite heading into the weekend at The Belfry, though he had to settle for a respectable 12th place finish. He, surprisingly, makes his first ever trip to Valderrama.
Andy Sullivan (14/1) has a fantastic record in Spain and Portugal, and arrives on the back of a win three weeks ago to a venue where he has never finished outside of the top 20. He looks the best value bet of these three.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
Sweden's Marcus Kinhult has had a steadily improving reintroduction to The Tour over the past few weeks. Martin has posted back to back top 15 finishes in the final two events of the UK swing showing that the two time European Tour winner is very much back to his best. Kinhult is a player that plays tough venues well. He likes slopey, fast challenging greens and seems perfectly suited to Valderrama; a course where he had a top 25 finish three years ago, long before he began to achieve the type of form and recognition that his British Masters win brought him last year. Outside of the market's top 6, Kinhult is one of the most gifted players in the field and whilst some of those will not have the discipline for four rounds on one of Europe's toughest courses, Marcus very much has the brain and staying power for this challenge. I expect him to build on those excellent finishes in the UK swing, and will be backing him with 2 points e/w @ 33/1.
Other Betting Tips
Without managing to post any particularly impressive results over the past few weeks, Pablo Larrazabal has been appearing on a few people's radars on account of some very low rounds. He has been making as many birdies as anyone however, as is usually the case with Pablo, they have been interspersed with too many scores on the wrong side of par. Larrazabal is, as ever, an interesting selection. If he can put just two or three of his better rounds together, then Valderrama should be a challenge that he can overcome very effectively. However, it could as easily get on top of him if he doesn't get the right kind of start. Historically, Pablo has missed just one career cut at Valderrama in nine starts and it's a venue that he excels at. His length is less than what it once was, but with his history of winning on tough courses, and given that Valderrama is one of the shorter venues on Tour, I am happy to take a chance on him this week with 1 point e/w at 100/1.
Englishman Ben Stow began the UK swing in fine form with a top 10 finish at Close House, and missed just one cut in his following four events. Stow has been very positive about his game on social media, and clearly thinks that a big result is just around the corner. He plays the game very similarly to Andy Sullivan who picked up his seventh Tour win at Hanbury Manor, and at more than ten times the price of Sullivan, Stow represents the better value for me this week. He is a tidy player that keeps his ball in play, and takes an entirely different approach to Larrazabal. I feel that the tougher scoring will suit him well and I have backed him with just 1 point e/w at 150/1.
Following a rolling profit of 463 points in 2019, I am looking for an even better 2020. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event on the European and PGA Tours, and suggest a suitable staking plan.
|European Tour||-68 points|
|PGA Tour||+57 points|
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