3M Open Golf Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers.
TPC Twin Cities - Blaine, Minnesota - Par 71, 7,450 Yards
It’s another new venue this week on the PGA Tour as we head 25 miles north of the city of Minneappolis, and to the Arnold Palmer designed TPC Twin Cities. Toughened up two years ago under a Tom Lehman redesign, the course still remains a largely flat and unprotected parkland track where water hazards (in play on 10 holes) are in play, but unlikely to affect the most in form players this week.
Although the par 5s are long, there are three drivable par 4s, and this course has all the hallmarks of one that can be overpowered by the bugger hitters. The greens are large, fast and slopey, but on the whole this is going to be a contest of who hits the longest drives and makes the largest footage of putts. Course similarities can be drawn with venues in Texas, and Palmer’s design at Bay Hill.
The Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson (10/1) arrives in Minnesota on the back of a week to forget at the Memorial, and keen to recapture the form that saw him take the Travelers Championship last month. Dustin should love the course, albeit he was absent in the inaugural year in 2019. Players have plenty of room to open their shoulders and fire drives to pretty much whatever part of the course they wish and following up with a strong wedge and putting game will be the key to success for the bigger hitters. There was enough to concern me about Johnson's form last week, and I'm looking ahead to Harding Park in a couple of weeks for DJ's best chance of capturing a title at the USPGA. I'll keep my powder dry on him until then.
Tony Finau (12/1) will be looking to bounce back from a horror show over his, admittedly tough, final 24 holes last week where he went from strong market favourite and outright leader to a disappointing 8th place finish. Finau is another big hitter who should enjoy the freedom of TPC Twin Cities, and should again challenge this week if the rest of his game matches up to the first two and a half rounds from last week. Finau was in the top 30 last year and I expect him to push on with a stronger showing this week, although there isn't much margin for error at the price.
Brooks Koepka (14/1) and Tommy Fleetwood (14/1) also garner market respect. Koepka went off half this price last year the week before the Open Championship but only just made the cut. Fleetwood has headed to the US ahead of the season's opening Major at the start of August and seems non competitively priced at a venue that should be less suited to his skillset than it is for the majority of the field. Neither player offers any value for me.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
Troy Merritt fits the profile of a TPC Twin Cities winner perfectly, and although the two time PGA Tour winner hasn't been hitting the heights of late, he has shown plenty over the last few weeks to suggest that he can get into contention this week. Merritt hits the ball long, although not always straight, and ranks in the top 20 for approaches from 100-150 and 150-175 yards making him ideally placed to tackle the challenges on offer here. Troy finished 7th here last year, and had achieved back to back top 20s before taking the weekend off last week in Ohio. He desperately needs a win to maintain his Tour status, and will be well aware that this event, with this weak field represents perhaps his best chance of the year. I am backing him with 2 points e/w @ 70/1.
Other Betting Tips
I think this might be the first time that I have ever thrown my weight behind Tour veteran Charles Howell III, but if there is to be a twilight in the sun for the 41 year old, then here and now is the place. He started off last week so well before falling away to an eventual 48th place finish, but that was due to small mistakes that are severely punished at a course like Muirfield Village. Those same errors won't register to anywhere near the same degree at Twin Cities and Howell showed last year, on the back of four missed cuts, how he can elevate his game at a more suitable venue such as this one. He is no stranger to being in contention, and his scoring average on par 4s under 400 yards is 9th of those in the field which could be critical on some of the drivable holes here. For me he represents excellent value for 2 points e/w at 80/1.
Following a rolling profit of 463 points in 2019, I am looking for an even better 2020. Each week I will pick between 2 to 4 selections at each event on the European and PGA Tours, and suggest a suitable staking plan.
|European Tour||-81 points|
|PGA Tour||+3 points|