Bet UK Genesis Open Golf Betting Preview
Rob Cobley is a maths graduate who has spent several years working in the betting industry. He is now able to share his golf betting tips on the World’s biggest golfing events exclusively for Bet UK customers.
The Course - Riviera Country Club.
After the weather affected finish last week at Pebble Beach, the PGA Tour returns to the relative warmth of Pacific Palisades, and the Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles where American Bubba Watson defends the title that he has won 3 times in the last 5 years.
At 7013 yards, the par 71 course provides a stern challenge for what is always a top quality field, and this year is set to be no different with the likes of Dustin Johnson, Rory Mcilroy, Tiger Woods, and last week’s winner Phil Mickelson joining a star studded field in the shadows of the Hollywood Hills.
The course sets up ideally for left handers, and results are often an early indication of who is going to contend at The Masters in April with several winners of this tournament having gone on to wear the blue jacket later the same year.
The course record for Riviera is 61. That is not a score that we are likely to see this week on a layout that provides a severe challenge for the very best in the game.
The Market Leaders
The market is headed by a mixture of both US and European talent with Rory Mcilroy and John Rahm sitting amongst the likes of tournament favourite, and 2017 champion, Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas, Bryson Dechambeau, and Bubba Watson.
Johnson started well, leading after Round 1 at Pebble Beach last week before falling away, and quotes of single figures do not stand out as value on the World No. 3. Thomas similarly struggles to convince that his price is a sensible investment - possessing just one top 10 from his 4 starts at Riviera, whilst Mcilroy has never broken into the Top 20, and this is Rahm’s debut at the course. Dechambeau only has one finish in the Top 40 here, and Bubba Watson is in very changeable form.
It might, therefore, be prudent to look away from the top echelons of talent on show in the Golden State, as in the last 5 years, the likes of James Hahn and John Merrick have provided 200/1 & 300/1 winners respectively.
The hugely talented Japanese superstar has a top 5 finish to his name at Riviera back in 2015, and arrives this week in some of the best ball striking form that he has ever enjoyed. Over his last 7 rounds in Phoenix, and at Torey Pines, the World Number 28 has gained an average of 15 shots from tee to green on the rest of the field, with just his streaky putting preventing him from seriously challenging for a 6th PGA Tour Title. After a week off, Hideki will be well rested and primed for an assault at the Genesis Open. The greens at Rivieira are notoriously small, and a premium tee to green game is so important, and this plays to all of his strengths. I expect to see Matsuyama challenging on Sunday afternoon, and would advise a stake of 4 points e/w at 21/1*
The consistent Englishman is in a rich vein of form and arrives at Rivieira reeling from his Sunday struggles in his duel with Phil Mickelson at Pebble Beach where he finished as runner up for the 2nd time in his last two tournaments. Casey has the ideal long game, similarly to Matsuyama, to tame Riviera, and is another that we expect to be challenging for the title on Sunday at a course where he has previously finished...2nd. Tagged, somewhat unfairly as a perennial underachiever, Casey hit back at his critics in style to take the Valspar Championship last year, and is a contender every week in the World’s biggest events. A win in 2019 isn’t far away for Casey, and it would be no surprise to see him achieve that this week. 3 Points e/w at 30/1*
Our third pick is the man who won the Valspar the year before Casey, and the correlations between that Innisbrook layout and Riviera lead us to the potential of a big week for Canadian Adam Hadwin. He is another to have shown an ability to compete around this course when finishing 6th last year; making it 3 Top 25s in 4 years for an increasingly competitive player on Tour. Hadwin should have won The Dester Classic a month ago, but fell away over the back 9 on Sunday and eventually lost in a playoff to finish 2nd. That will have hurt, and heading back to a track where he is familiar with contending, Hadwin will feel this is an opportunity to lay those ghosts to rest and become a multiple PGA Tour winner. 2 Points e/w at 50/1*
The final selection, and the only American we have opted for, is big hitting J.B. Holmes. Holmes has always flirted with success at Riviera, finishing in the top 25 twice, and making the cut for each of the last 4 years on a course that should suit his power game. He arrives in intermittent form with his last 3 tournaments leading to two missed cuts, and a 26th but those were on courses less suited to his game, and it is worth taking a chance on a player who, if he can negotiate the tricky Poa-Annua greens, has the ability to beat anyone in this field. 2 Points e/w at 150/1*
*All odds from Bet UK’s online sportsbook correct at the time of writing.
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