D+D Real Czech Masters Golf Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our readers.
Albatross Golf Resort - Vysoky Ujezd, Czech Republic - Par 72, 7,467 Yards
After a seemingly never ending hiatus following on from the Rolex series and the highly successful Open Championship, Tour golf returns to European shores this week as the Tour resumes the Race to Dubai at the Albatross Golf Resort in Ujzed, some 40 miles south west of Prague. A mid difficulty course that can really be tamed by any type of player depending on the setup with both bombers (Thomas Pieters) and technically strong (Bradley Dredge & Andrea Pavan) players performing well here in the past. A mildly undulating course with average width fescue fairways, and large green complexes it is easy to see why any player can perform here on their day. At in excess of 7,400 yards at its longest, the Albatross Resort certainly offers an edge to the longer hitters from the tee, with their extra distance giving way to shorter, easier to control, iron shots into the greens. This is however offset by the rough that is expected to be far thicker this year, meaning any shot that misses the fairway will be punished more severely than usual. The large putting surfaces are the caveat to the above, and shorter hitters can also perform here hitting fairways and greens in regulation with relative ease; setting up a fascinating contest between the two types of player. My instinct this week does remain that length will continue to play a significant role at this venue and I will be looking to keep the bigger hitters onside where possible.
Last Five Winners:
2018: Andrea Pavan - -22
2017: Haydn Porteous - -13
2016: Paul Peterson - -15
2015: Thomas Pieters - -20
2014 : Jamie Donaldson - -14
The Market Leaders
With none of the World’s top 40 here this week, the highest ranked player is England’s Eddie Pepperell (12/1) who comes in as the market favourite. This isn’t really much of a surprise with Eddie having finished inside the top 10 on 3 of his 5 visits to the Albatross Resort, including a 5th place in 2014 and 2017. He has a solid all round game, and rarely misses a cut, however he has had a disappointing season in many ways. Over the last 12 weeks he has played 4 times with his best result being a stand out 4th place at the Irish Open. All other returns have been outside the top 40 and what strikes me about Peperell is his possible inability to go really low. This will hurt him this week when I expect several rounds in the low 60s and could leave him with too much work to do to catch anyone that gets hot on the greens. Alongside him is Austria’s Bernd Wiesberger (12/1), the second highest ranked player in the field. Wiesberger is certainly capable of going low as he has done at the Austrian Open and the Scottish Open; both of which he has won recently. Added to that is a 2nd place at the Irish Open, and WIesberger enters this week as the player in the most stand out form for the field. His only prior visit to the Albatross Resort was back in 2014 when he missed the cut and that does provide a small worry, although I have few doubts that a player with his game can overcome this venue if he plays to his potential.
Behind these two we find the likes of Erik Van Rooyen and Lee Westwood (both 14/1) as well as course specialist and 2015 winner Thomas Pieters (18/1). Van Rooyen is a hugely talented player, but the quotes around him seem massively underpriced given his low propensity to win aligned with the fact that he has a best finish of 34th at this venue. Westwood would seem far more suited with his long straight driving, and has posted a top 10 here back in 2017. With his wife on the bag, Lee looks a different player these days and definitely represents the most of the short-mid priced value on a course where there is a premium on long, straight, driving. Pieters should also be pleased with the above, but he can be wayward far too often at the moment. Current form of mc-mc-20-67 puts me off backing the young Belgian despite a win and two other top 10s in his last 4 visits to the Czech Republic.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
The headline selection in Europe this week is 24 year old Spaniard Adria Arnaus. Arnaus has pushed himself to the edge of the World’s top 100 players and has had some deceptively impressive finishes in mid range events this season with fields far stronger than can be found in the Czech Republic this week. With 2nd places at both the Kenya Open and his home event at Valderrama seven weeks ago, Arnaus has shown that he has now matched his highly impressive talent with a comfort at the top of the leaderboards, and I expect big things from the Spaniard over the next 12-18 months.
Adri averages a highly impressive 305 yards off the tee, and hits over 70% of greens in regulation; a figure that will only increase this week on the expansive putting surfaces at the Albatross Resort. Where he has fallen down is with his putting averaging over 30 strokes a round. This will certainly need to improve if he is to take the title but there have been signs, including a highly impressive 15th at he Irish Open that he is getting on top of his short game and a small uplift here will likely reap substantial rewards. I suggest 3 points e/w at 50/1.
I am looking to stay away from the top of the market with the remaining selections, with so much value available across the field should the four or five at the front fail to fire this week. This now brings me to a previous winner in Welshman Jamie Donaldson at a very competitive price. It has been a tough season for Jamie who had missed all but one of his cuts leading into the Scottish Open last month where he posted a very impressive top 10. This in itself is not evidence that the once Ryder Cup hero at Celtic Manor is back to his best, but it is enough of an indicator that the markets should once again take him seriously; especially at a venue where he won in 2014.
Driving accuracy and putting have generally been the achilles heel for Jamie in this period, and he will need to hit more fairways this week if his chances aren’t to be swallowed up in the deep bentgrass rough that lines the fairways at Albatross Resort. He is though a player that will battle and contend if he can place himself in contention over the first couple of days, and for a former course winner with his class, I cannot overlook the chance to have 2 points e/w at 100/1.
Another 100/1 shot that I feel could go well this week is 30 year old South African Dean Burmester. Although Burmester is another that isn’t enjoying the best of seasons, he also has shown that he still has the ability to produce golf of the standard that saw him take the Tshwane Open title back in 2017. Burmester’s stand out performance this year came with a top 10 finish at the Belgian knockout, and he has followed that up with a top 40 in Sergio’s event at Valderrama. All of those events have been in stronger fields, and Burmester has since produced another strong showing on the Challenge Tour. The feel this week is much less intense than for a regular Tour event, and that will help the likes of Dean. I would not be surprised to see him challenge, particularly for a place, and shall have 1 point e/w at 100/1.
The 2016 winner Soomin Lee is a sleeping giant that I feel could also defy long odds to put in a strong performance this week in the Czech Republic. Despite a host of missed cuts, Lee did post an impressive 4th place at the Portugal Masters on a similarly open track where mistakes are less regularly punished and a good putting week can see a substantial reversal in fortunes. Lee is one of a crop of highly talented Asian players, but has yet to have seen the substantial acclaim of some of his compatriots such as Byeong-Hun An and Sungjae Im, who are plying their way Stateside on the PGA Tour. Soomin will want this, and knows that he needs to start winning regularly. There will be no better venue or field for him to turn around his recent poor fortunes than here, and I have a feeling he could surprise a lot of people this week. I will be sticking to 1 point e/w at 150/1.
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