Bundesliga Betting Tips

Bundesliga Week 27

After the first weekend of the Bundesliga went ahead with few issues, we can look forward to another weekend of top flight action. The break clearly had different effects on different squads, with some teams playing as though they never stopped, whilst other teams performed like it was pre season. Relegation battles and titles races are still as close as ever, with almost every match having huge importance at either end of the table.

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Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin - 19:30 Friday 22nd May

Hertha Berlin got off to an unexpectedly strong start with a 3-0 win away at Hoffenheim. Despite an entertaining first half, with plenty of chances for both sides. The deadlock was finally broken after 58 minutes, when Hertha pressure eventually led to an own goal from Kevin Akpoguma. The floodgates opened at that point, and 18 minutes later it was 3-0 after goals from Vedad Ibisevic and Matheus Cunha. Hoffenheim arguably had the better chances and deserved better, but Hertha’s clinical finishing handed them the win.

Union Berlin were much fancied to finish bottom of the league and were given little chance of surviving at the start of the season. Instead, they are quite comfortably in mid table and although they were beaten by Bayern Munich on Sunday, it wasn’t the battering that many predicted of Union Berlin. Anthony Ujah actually had the best chance of the early exchanges and with more composure, could have given Berlin an early lead. Bayern did take control after a back and forth start, but Union Berlin’s defence can still look back at the performance and be proud. Against a weaker side in Hertha Berlin, there is every chance they can sneak a win.

This is only the second Berlin derby in Bundesliga history and although there won’t be any fans to add to the atmosphere, expect a very battling game on the pitch. At odds of 33/10, backing a red card in this match looks a good bet.

Over 0.5 Red Cards @ 33/10

SC Freiburg v Werder Bremen - 14:30 Saturday 23rd May

Freiburg might be a comfortable top half side, but no one expected them to get a result away at RB Leipzig. In the first half, Freiburg went blow to blow with Leipzig and actually looked the better of the two sides. Freiburg also took the most of their chances, taking an unlikely lead after 34 minutes as a corner was bundled in by Manuel Guide. Ademola Lookman was introduced at the break and Leipzig went more attacking, with Youseff Poulsen eventually scoring an equaliser. Freiburg finished the stronger of the two sides and even had a 92nd winner disallowed. If they can perform like that for the rest of the season, they could qualify for the Europa League next year.

Not long ago, Werder Bremen were the team chasing the Europa League but this year, they look destined for relegation. Everything wrong with their side this year was encapsulated in a 4-1 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen at the weekend. For every goal that Bremen conceded, the same issues were brought to our attention. Simple mistakes at the back left Kai Havertz, Mitchell Weiser and Kerim Demirbay all completely free in the box to score. With such a hapless defence, it’s almost irrelevant how Bremen perform at the other end of the pitch, as they have no chance of making up for the back line. Now 9 points from safety, Werder Bremen are set for the first season out of the Bundesliga in 30 years.

Freiburg are hardly a prolific side, but against the worst defence in the league, we can expect them to grab a few goals in a comfortable win.

Freiburg to score over 2.5 Goals @ 3/1

Paderborn v Hoffenheim - 14:30 Saturday 23rd May

Paderborn kept their slim chances of survival alive with a 0-0 draw against Dusseldorf. Although there won’t be anyone clamouring to watch Paderborn games this season, a 0-0 draw away against a rival is exactly what they could hope for. Paderborn more than held their own in the match, and nearly won the game at the end when Antwi-Adjei fired over from close range. Although Paderborn rode their luck, keeping a clean sheet for only the 3rd time this season will give them confidence they can survive the drop.

Hoffenheim’s chance to jump into the European places slipped away as they lost 3-0 at home to Hertha Berlin. As we mentioned previously, Hoffenheim arguably had the better of the play throughout the game. Hoffenheim had more shots, more complete passes and more corners, but couldn’t take advantage. 3 of their front 4 were replaced during the match, so it’s clear that Alfred Schreuder isn’t happy with his forward line. If he can settle on an attacking lineup, then chances might start to fall for Hoffenheim. But until then, expect plenty more chances to go awry.

Paderborn are the rank outsiders here, but there are reasons to be hopeful. Hoffenheim are misfiring and don’t look their best, and Paderborn recently kept their first clean sheet since January. We are backing Paderborn to cause a shock here and put another nail in Hoffenheim’s European coffin.

Paderborn to win @ 11/5

Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund - 14:30 Saturday 23rd May

Wolfsburg earned 3 points at the weekend thanks to a last minute winner away at Augsburg. Wolfsburg started the game on the front foot and had 2 or 3 chances to open the scoring. Eventually, the opening goal came after 43 minutes when Renato Steffen headed in a left wing cross from just inside the box. Augsburgs strength of set pieces shone through in the second half, as they scored an equaliser before having another goal disallowed 10 minutes later. As Wolfsburg looked under pressure late on, Kevin Mbabu used his pace to reach the byline before setting up Daniel Ginczek for a 91st minute winner. The 3 points put Wolfsburg in pole position for the final Europa League spot, with 8 games left to play.

Dortmund restarted their Bundesliga season in ideal fashion with a 4-0 derby win at home to Schalke. Every player looked fit and raring to go and it showed from the start. Erling Haaland continued his incredible goalscoring record with his 10th goal in 9 Bundesliga games. Raphael Guerreiro scored either side of a Thorgan Hazard goal to put Schalke to the sword and continue Dortmund’s title push. Few sides looked as impressive as Dortmund did coming back from the break.

Regardless of their opposition, it’s always worth backing the number of goals in a Borussia Dortmund game. Normally, the over hits on Dortmund matches so we will back over 3.5 at 29/20.

Over 3.5 Goals @ 29/20

Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen - 14:30 Saturday 23rd May

Borussia Monchengladbach’s unlikely title charge is still very much alive after a 3-1 win away at Frankfurt. Alassane Plea and Marcus Thuram got them off to the perfect start, a 2-0 lead within 7 minutes. Monchengladbach were in complete control from that point, but couldn’t add to their lead until a 72nd minute penalty was scored by Bensebaini. Coupled with RB Leipzig’s draw, Monchengladbach moved into 3rd place behind Dortmund and Bayern. With those two playing each other next week, another 2 wins could have Monchengladbach right in the title mix.

Bayer Leverkusen piled the misery on Werder Bremen with a 4-1 win away from home. Youngster Kai Havertz grabbed the headlines with a first half brace, both coming from headers after poor marking from Bremen. That theme carried on to the second half. The third goal again came from a cross, with Mitchell Weiser allowed to have a free run into the box and add a third for Leverkusen. Kerem Demirbay added a 4th with 12 minutes to go and kept Leverkusen comfortably in the top 5. A title race might be slightly out of reach, but the Champions League is a very achievable goal.

Both of these sides have impressive defences, and although they were free flowing at the weekend, neither have a stellar goalscoring record. Although this should be one of the most interesting games of the weekend, don't expect a flurry of goals.

Under 2.5 Goals @ 31/20

Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt - 17:30 Saturday 23rd May

Bayern Munich’s Bundesliga title push was strengthened with a comfortable 2-0 win over Union Berlin. The scoreline could have easily been more than 2, with plenty of chances for Bayern to add to their tally. Robert Lewandowski obviously opened the scoring for Bayern with his 40th goal in all competitions this year. The Polish striker is enjoying one of the best years of his career so far and doesn’t look to be slowing down with age. Benjamin Pavard added a late second from a corner to complete a comfortable win for Bayern. Along with their 2 goals, Bayern’s impressive defence added another clean sheet this season and will be expecting another shutout against Frankfurt.

On the other hand, Frankfurt are falling closer to the relegation zone after a 3-1 defeat to Borussia Monchengladbach. Frankfurt never got started in this game, falling behind after just 37 seconds. 6 minutes later, Frankfurt’s defence gave Marcus Thuram the freedom of the 6 yard box and the Frenchman duly doubled the lead. The game was essentially over at that point, but Monchengladbach did eventually add a third late in the game. Andre Silva fired in a late consolation, but there are plenty of worries in Frankfurt at the end of this season.

With Bayern on the up and Eintracht Frankfurt seemingly getting worse with each game, we can only see this game going one way. Bayern should get an easy 3 points, and will likely keep a clean sheet on the way for good measure.

Bayern Munich To Win To Nil @ 11/10

Schalke 04 v FC Augsburg - 12:30 Sunday 24th May

Schalke’s Bundesliga restart couldn’t have gone worse. In the Revierderby, Schalke fell to a 4-0 defeat and looked a step off from the start. Whereas Dortmund came out the blocks firing, Schalke failed to really get going. Their forward line was completely isolated, the midfielders all looked leggy and the defence was poor, albeit not helped but the injury to Jean-Clair Todibo. 21 year old goalkeeper Markus Schubert had the toughest afternoon of the whole side however and was arguably at fault for all 4 goals. Coming out of the break, we spoke about Schalke’s impressive defence, but it might be a different side to what we expected.

Augsburg were minutes away from a welcome point at the weekend, before conceding a last minute winner against Wolfsburg. Wolfsburg did start the game stronger, taking the lead in the 43rd minute. But in the second half, Augsburg took complete control and looked the better side. Particularly from free kicks, Augsburg were dangerous and scored from a wide set piece after 53 minutes. 10 minutes later, Felix Uduokhai thought he had put Augburg ahead from another set piece, before VAR intervened and disallowed his effort. With the game looking to fizzle out into a draw, Wolfsburg struck with a late winner and cruelly sent Augsburg packing with no points.

After watching Schalke’s performance on Saturday, it looked like any other side in the league could have beaten them. They might be in more familiar surroundings on Sunday, but unless there is a massive improvement we can’t seem them picking up a win.

Draw or Augsburg @ 10/13

Mainz 05 v RB Leipzig - 14:30 Sunday 24th May

Mainz fought back from a 2-0 deficit for a well earned draw away at Koln. Mainz looked like a side that hadn’t played football for 2 months and started the game very slowly. Moussa Niakhate conceded a spot kick after just 6 minutes and Mainz were under pressure until the break. Although they reached half time without any trouble, Koln scored again after 53 minutes and Mainz looked down and out. The introduction of Taiwo Awoniyi changed the game however. Just 5 minutes after coming on, he finished off a sweeping move to pull a goal back for Mainz. 9 minutes later, Kunde Malong scored an incredible solo effort to draw the game level. Mainz arguably could have gone on to win the game from that point, and will be full of confidence coming into this game.

RB Leipzig’s title charge fell at the first hurdle as they failed to beat Freiburg at home. Despite having 60% possession and 21 shots, Leipzig couldn’t break down a stubborn Freiburg defence. Timo Werner and Youssef Poulsen were involved from the start, but their link up play left little to be desired. Werner in particular seemed to find himself a foot off the pace, compared to his normal lightning fast movement. After falling behind in the first half, it took until the 77th minute for Poulsen to score an equaliser. Poulsen, Werner and Lookman had all missed golden chances to that point. If Leipzig are going to catch Bayern, they need to start taking some of their chances again.

Mainz are one of the teams at the bottom that leak goals, but they also score plenty. Combine that with Leipzig’s forward threat and we can look forward to some goals in this game.

Over 3.5 Goals @ 23/20

FC Koln v Fortuna Dusseldorf - 17:00 Sunday 24th May

FC Koln came into the Bundesliga restart hoping to find the form that saw them rise up the table since Christmas. Whilst they didn't pick up the 3 points, there were still plenty of signs that Koln’s run wasn’t a complete fluke. They got off to a perfect start with a penalty after just 5 minutes, which was easily dispatched by Mark Uth. After the break, Florian Kainz doubled the league with a diving header, seemingly putting the game beyond doubt. But with 30 minutes remaining, Mainz quickly scored 2 goals to draw level. Koln looked shaken by the quick comeback, but held on to earn a point. There’s still a chance Koln can qualify for the Europa League, but they will be hoping for others to slip up.

Fortuna Dusseldorf will be left bewildered as to how they left their match against Paderborn without 3 points. Throughout the match, they had plenty of chances to finish off their opponents, but remarkably hit the woodwork 3 times. They missed a host of chances and ended up with just 1 shot on target from 10 efforts. The one positive they can take is that they kept a 4th clean sheet of the season and extended their unbeaten run to 4 games. They will rue the missed opportunities however, as they are now adrift in the relegation playoff spot, where they will remain this week regardless of results.

Koln are the clear favourites in this side and if their performance at the weekend is anything to go by, they should score a few goals this week. Dusseldorf weren’t really tested at the back, but they will struggle against Koln’s free flowing forwards.

Koln to win and over 2.5 goals @ 6/4