Andalucia Valderrama Masters Golf Betting Tips
Bet UK's golf betting expert Luke Tredget brings you his latest round of golf betting tips for the 2018 Andalucia Masters.
Valderrama is one of the most iconic courses in the world. The fairways are narrow and over 2000 cork trees decorate the course, many of which are in-play over hanging the fairways or ready to limit a player’s view of the small and tricky greens. Accuracy off the tee is vital and the ability to both fade and draw the ball a substantial advantage. The event is the final one of the regular season, and many players need a good finish to keep their playing card for next year.
By far the most likely winner is the man hosting the event and defending champion Sergio Garcia. Garcia’s record at Valderrama is remarkable with two wins, three second place finishes and three other top 5’s. The Spaniard’s game is made for the place, as he is a shot maker supreme with the ability to move the ball both ways. The question punters must ask themselves is whether he is value at Bet UK’s 4/1*? On balance I think we can pass here, although only just. Before the Ryder Cup and Portugal Masters there was plenty of talk of Garcia’s game being in disarray, and whilst he has now put that chat to bed, who knows how much the dramatic improvement was sparked by the adrenaline that so obviously flowed through his veins during the Ryder Cup. The field this week isn’t particularly strong, and nobody would be surprised should the extremely popular Garcia lift the trophy once again come Sunday, but he will miss out being in our staking plan.
Next in the betting is Shane Lowry and the Irishman can boast a solid record at the track with three top 20’s in his only three previous visits. I’m a big fan of Lowry’s game but it’s tough to get excited about his price this week. After Lowry Bet UK have Soren Kjeldsen, Lee Westwood, Padraig Harrington and Andrew ‘’Beef’’ Johnston all around the 20/1* mark. We’ll have a small bet on diminutive Dane Kjeldsen. Kjeldsen’s neat and tidy game is made for the fiddly Valderrama lay out and it’s no surprise he has an excellent record here including a victory in the Volvo Masters ten years ago. Kjeldsen is one of the shorter hitters on the European Tour but that’s not an issue this week, and we can expect his controlled iron game to shine at Valderrama. The Dane is having a solid enough season making nearly every cut without ever really threatening the winner’s enclosure. He looks sure to play well this week and hopefully will challenge for the title. Padraig Harrington is greatly respected given he ticks both the current and course form boxes and Andrew Johnston will be looking forward to returning to a track he booked a famous win on just two years ago. Lee Westwood will probably enjoy being back on this classical golf course, but at 45 years of age it’s possible we may have seen Westwood win for the last time now and he is easily passed over at the prices.
Possibly just about the best value in the field is Matteo Manassero who Bet UK have at 125/1*. Manassero thrives in Spain where the courses are of the shorter more traditional form, his record in the country is excellent and includes a European Tour victory back in 2010. The Italian is in danger of losing his card, currently sitting 118th in The Order of Merit (the top 110 keep their card) and this perilous situation should inspire the former boy wonder to a good showing this week. Manassero was once almost universally regarded as a certainty for golfing super stardom, but that hasn’t quite materialised. The Italian tried to bulk up to keep up with the bombers who dominate much of the game these days and in the process lost his swing somewhat. It would be remiss to say Manassero is on his way back to his best but a promising 22nd last week at the British Masters combined with two top 30’s from three visits to Valderrama mean there’s more than enough juice in Bet UK’s 125/1* to take a chance.
For our next wager we’ll chance Jorge Campillo at Bet UK’s 40/1*. The Spaniard has yet to break his duck on the European Tour but is enjoying comfortably his best season so far and perhaps back on home soil the 32 year old maiden will finally come of age. Campillo has four top 10’s to his name this season including back to back good finishes in the big events of France and Ireland. Four times the Spaniard has been a runner up in his European Tour career including on the equally fiddly New Delhi track. He played respectably in this event last year finishing 36th and given the improvement in his golf this season it’s reasonable to assume he may better that this week.
For our final wager we’ll have a small bet on another Spaniard Alejandro Canizares. Canizares is a local to the Andalucia area and knows Valderrama like the back of his hand. In his four tournaments at the track he has never been outside the top 40 and finished 7th in the 2011 version of this event. Canizares is having a dreadful season but has stopped the rot in his last two tournaments by at least making the cut. Given his current form it does require something of a leap of faith to expect the home crowd to roar him over the line, but it wasn’t long ago Canizares would always start sub 50/1 for nearly any Spanish event so at Bet UK’s 100/1* we can just about justify a wager.
Others to Note:
The secret seems to be out regarding Marcus Kinhult’s talent now and whilst Valderrama looks certain to suit the gifted Swede he’s plenty short enough this week despite looking likely to play well. Richie Ramsay (3rd and 29th in his two starts here) and Pablo Larrazabal (12th last year) are both worth considering at above 50/1*.
Bet UK's Andalucia Valderrama Masters Tips
*All odds from Bet UK’s sportsbook correct at the time of writing
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