Andalucia Valderrama Masters Golf Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his [golf betting tips] to our players. Since starting his blogs at Bet UK, Cobley is +629.8 points.
Last Week’s Results: Last week, Cobley correctly predicted Keegan Bradley to place at 70/1 in the Travelers Championship.
Real Club Valderrama, San Roque - Cadiz, Spain - Par 71, 7,000 Yards (3x Par 5s)
The European Tour visits Spain this week for one of the biggest and best weeks on Tour. Valderrama, one of the oldest and most revered venues on the tour plays host to the Andalucia Masters where the best of the Tour battle it out for the coveted title. Sergio Garcia has won the last two stagings here on a course highly suited to the gifted Spaniard.
One and a half hours south from Malaga, and an hour north of Gibraltar, Valderrama is a gem, and one that I have been fortunate enough to have played several times. Whilst not the longest of courses, it is extremely tight and challenging with heavily tree lined, undulating, fairways. The rough is not deep, but if you miss the fairway you are likely to be inhibited by one of the 2,000 cork trees lining the estate, and layups are common place, even for the straightest of hitters.
The greens are small and slopey, protected by significant bunkering, and measuring up to 13 on the stimpmeter to make the challenge all the more severe. Water is in play on several holes, including notably the par 5 4th and 17th holes. Good shotmakers will prevail here, and course form is a major factor in deciding who will contend.
Last Two Winners (only staged twice recently):
2018: Sergio Garcia: -12
2017: Sergio Garcia: -12
The Market Leaders
It is surprising given his quite outstanding course form that Sergio Garcia arrives at Valderrama having to dispute favouritism with fellow countryman John Rahm. In his past 4 visits here, Garcia has three wins and a 2nd place at a course just down the road from where he was born. He does, however, arrive in fairly patchy form having missed 3 of his last 4 cuts and that makes his quotes of 7/1 fairly understandable. To that end I find the Rahm (7/1) price too short. He has just one previous appearance here when missing the cut back in 2013, and missed his two previous cuts before an admittedly impressive third place at the US Open 2 weeks ago. It is hard, though, to justify these short quotes at what is clearly not a favourite course of his.
Behind those two, last week’s runner up Matthew Fitzpatrick leads the pack at 10/1. Fitzpatrick is playing well, and this type of challenge should suit his game, but with no previous form at Valderrama it is hard to be too bullish about the 24 from Sheffield. Joost Luiten (19/1) and Julian Suri (30/1) complete the top 5 in the market following the withdrawal of Frenchman Michael Lorenzo Vera.
Rob’s Golf Betting Tips
Headline Betting Tip
This week’s headline selection on the European Tour goes to a precocious home talent who is well overdue his maiden win. Adrian Otaegui had a strong start to the season, performing well at similar tricky, shotmaking, courses such as Crans Sur Sierre, and heads to a familar venue this week in Valderrama. Otaegui has only twice played here competitively, finishing 38th in 2016, and following up with a 12th in 2017 before missing out last year. Those performances were in much deeper fields than we see this week, and i feel Otaegui will contend strongly.
He is a diminutive man who prefers to shape and work shots rather than book big drives such as the like of Rahm or Detry who both take a higher market share, and represents far greater value. Recently Otaegui has made his last two cuts including posting a top 20 3 weeks ago, and on home soil I expect a more substantial improvement, and for him to give us a good run for our money with 3 points e/w at 50/1.
Other Golf Betting Tips
Another Spaniard takes the place for our second selection , in the name of Pablo Larrazabal. Pablo is hugely popular in his home country, and will draw substantial support this week in an event where he has posted consecutive top 30s, including a 12th before missing the cut last year. Pablo fits the shot maker criteria perfectly, and clearly can play this venue so that isn’t a concern. If he has a good week, he will contend.
That good week is far from beyond him as finishes of 4th and 8th in his last four events has shown. He was very disappointing in finishing a lowly 67th last week due to a final round 76, but the rest of the game had been solid and it is now 14 weeks since his last missed cut. I am backing Pablo this week with 2 points e/w at 55/1.
Nacho Elvira completes an unintended hat-trick of Spaniards for the preview this week. Elvira showed huge early year promise with finishes of 2nd and 6th in back to back events in March, but has somewhat come off the boil more recently. That said, his last finish on Tour was a more than respectable 12th place, and he is on the back of a 4 week break before arriving at a home venue that suits his game as well as any others.
Elvira is another who prefers to plot his way around a course rather than being able to overpower it. In previous visits he has made two out of three cuts, although failed to go on to seriously content in either of those events. Elvira has grown as a player since and will be highly motivated to perform in front of his home crowd. He is worth 2 points e/w at 80/1.
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