Wells Fargo Championship Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in sports betting. He has now partnered with Bet UK to bring you regular golf betting tips, this week coming from the Wells Fargo Championship. Bet UK’s online sportsbook has the latest golf betting odds for all major PGA and European tour events. You can also get golf betting tips for all major golf events at Bet UK's sports betting blog.
Quail Hollow Golf & Country Club, Charlotte, North Carolina. Par 72: 7,560 Yards
This week is one of the most competitive and enjoyable on the PGA Tour as a full strength field heads to the golfing utopia of North Carolina and the Wells Fargo Championship at the Quail Hollow Country Club. Just 20 minutes outside of Charlotte, and redesigned most recently by Tom Fazio in 2002, Quail Hollow represents a hugely tough test of golf, as supported by the decision to host the PGA Championship here two years after American Justin Thomas triumphed.
The course was lengthened for that tournament, and now sits a monstrous 7,560 yards; a tree-lined parkland course where bunkers and water hazards protect both the greens, and in the case of 18, the fairway. That is the culmination of a gruelling last 3 holes known as the green mile (the length is a mile) that will prove a stern test for any player reaching that stretch with ambitions of taking home this title.
Last Five WInners:
2018: Jason Day -16
2017: Brian Harman -10
2016: James Hahn -9
2015: Rory Mcilroy -21
2013: J.B. Holmes -14
The Market Leaders
Rory Mcilroy comes into this week as the overwhelming favourite at 6/1. This was the venue for his breakthrough win in 2009 when he blew the field away with a stunning back 9 of 29 shots, with his approach to 16 to set up an eagle remaining the defining shot of his career. Given that and the fact that he has won here since back in 2015 when he triumphed over Phil Mickelson in a playoff, it is understandable that he is garnering market support, but the price seems slim in a field of such outstanding quality.
Behind Rory sit the likes of last year’s winner Jason Day (10/1), 2012 winner Rickie Fowler (11/1), and England’s Justin Rose who was uncharacteristically out of form missing the cut at The Masters earlier this month. What is worth noting as we look at our picks for this week is that this tournament has brought about a couple of huge price winners in recent years with James Hahn (2016) and Derek Ernst (2013) both taking the title from a starting price of 500/1. There has also been some long priced runners up such as last year when Aaron Wise and Nick Watney finished behind Day.
The headline tip this week goes to a relatively short-priced player in third favourite Rickie Fowler. The mid range players this week do not inspire significant confidence with the likes of Tony Finau (20/1) and home town boy Webb Simpson (20/1) being extremely hard to pin down when it comes to closing out a tournament, an area where there can also be legitimate criticism aimed at Fowler. What is different for Rickie, is that he seems now to have overcome that hoodoo having won this title back in 2012, and performed in the biggest events this year including his 2nd place at The Players Championship back in February, and in the top 10 on his last outing at Augusta.
Fowler also has exceptional course form away from that win in 2012 with finishes of 4th and 5th in 2016 and 2017 respectively. With conditions expected to be challenging this week, Fowler should have the edge on his more fair weather opponents and his piercing low ball flight will give him a significant advantage. I am looking to the outright market and 4 points Win at 11/1*.
Aaron Wise produced the biggest performance of his career when he finished 2nd as a 21 year old rookie in this event last year. That was unexpected, but his form subsequently suggests that he could be well placed to match, or even improve upon, that this year. Wise has made 4 of his last 5 cuts, and might have been feeling the pressure of events in his native Texas, however with that swing over for another year, he might now be able to relax and pose a genuine challenge to the field here in Charlotte.
Wise’s strengths lie in his long game, which is exactly that; long. He can keep up with the likes of Finau and Woodland who are similar players, but only half the price of Wise based on reputations built away from Quail Hollow where their relative course form is poor. This is hard week to select value, but Wise could surprise a few people and, at the price, I suggest 2 Points e/w at 50/1*.
Continuing on what has been a bit of a theme recently, I am looking once more at an improving South African, this time in 43 year old relative veteran Rory Sabbatini. Sabbatini threatened on several occasions to become one of the most successful players on the PGA Tour, but sadly it has never really materialised for him, despite a splattering of wins over the past 20 years. Recently, though we have seen some encouraging signs from Rory who performed strongly last week in the team format of New Orleans, on the back of a 10th place finish the week before.
At Quail Hollow, Sabbatini has impressed in the past with finishes of 3rd and 8th amongst his last six outings here. He is worth backing with 1 Point e/w at 100/1*.
The final pick this week is another who showed form in the team event in New Orleans. American Kyle Stanley was only around for 2 rounds, but was the strongest in his pairing with Tony Finau (30/1) and the previous Tour winner is familiar with contending on these traditional tough tests having previously won at both Riviera and Torey Pines. Stanley has made his last three singles cuts, and has finishes of 13th, and 6th last year to his name at Quail Hollow. He is another who could be favoured by the tough conditions this week and can be backed with 2 Points e/w at 125/1*.
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*All odds from Bet UK’s online sportsbook correct at the time of writing.
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