3M Open Golf Betting Tips
Robert Cobley is a maths graduate with years of experience in the sports betting industry. He has now teamed up with Bet UK to bring his golf betting tips to our players. Since starting his blogs at Bet UK, Cobley is +629.8 points.
TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minnesota. Par 71, 7,450 Yards
It’s another new venue this week on the PGA Tour as we head 25 miles north of the city of Minneappolis, and to the Arnold Palmer designed TPC Twin Cities. Toughened last year under a Tom Lehman redesign, the course still remains a largely flat and unprotected parkland track where water hazards (on 10 holes) are in play, but unlikely to affect the most in form players this week.
Although the par 5s are long, there are three drivable par 4s, and this course has all the hallmarks of one that can be overpowered by the bigger hitters. The greens are large, fast and slopey, but on the whole this is going to be a contest of who hits the longest drives and makes the largest footage of putts. Course similarities can be drawn with venues in Texas, and Palmer’s design at Bay Hill. Players hoping to fine tune their games for the year’s final major at Portrush won’t find any help in Minnesota.
Last Five Winners:
This is the first ever staging of the 3M Open.
The Market Leaders
Major Championship specialist and long drive specialist Brooks Koepka arrives at TPC Twin cities as the (8/1) market favourite. At a new venue and in the run up to a Major this might seem short, however it is hard to question the synergies between Koepka and this venue. Brooks hits the ball miles, and is an expert on fast undulating greens. All that is really in question this week is how much desire he has to take the title. The week before the USPGA he had a strong 2nd place finish so there is no real concern about his ability and commitment to win the week before a major, and for that reason the single figure quotes seem reasonable.
Behind Brooks is Australian Jason Day (10/1). Day has been playing reasonably well, with his 8th place finish two weeks ago his second top 10 finish in his last six starts. It is however hard to place him so close to Koepka in the market given how little he has realistically contended for titles this year, and I wouldn’t be interested at the price.
Next comes Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama 11/1) who has been similarly solid but unspectacular with his best finish this season being a 6th place back in March. He does also suit the venue, but the price on a not fully known course is too skinny for a player that does not win as regularly as he should. American Bryson Dechambeau (13/1) completes the head of the market on the back of his best finish of the season two weeks ago. Dechambeau is also long, but to have him this price in such a deep field is not something I can really justify, or suggest is worthy of one of our selections.
Fresh from a 2nd place two weeks ago, I am recommending one of the my heaviest staking plans goes towards America’s Keegan Bradley this week in Minnesota. Bradley is long, and has a fantastic long putting game; two of the assets that will be vital to any player wanting to be successful this week at Twin Cities. Two weeks ago Bradley pushed Chez Reavie all the way despite a 6 shot deficit going into the final round, and it seems like his fire is back.
That 2nd place was Bradley’s highest finish for 3 years, however I firmly believe his game is in the exact shape it needs to be in to take the next step and claim his next Tour win. His sometimes errant driving will not be as much of a detriment to his chances as it would be at some other, more traditional, Tour venues, and Keegan knows these are the venues where he needs to make hay and get the wins that will get him back up the World rankings and into the biggest events on the biggest stage where he belongs. That is why I recommend a stake of 4 points e/w at 35/1.
Another big hitter who is likely to enjoy the open surrounds of TPC Twin Cities is Cameron Tringale. Tringale is another who has endured relative struggles this season; missing three of his last 7 cuts prior to his 5th place finish last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. An event held at a similar venue where the winning score of -24 is going to be closely mirrored this week. Tringale hits the ball a long way, and can get hot on the greens like he did last week. The price is perhaps on the skinny side for a player who has not contended much, if at all, for the last couple of years, however these pros know that they need to ride their form when it arrives, and if he is successful in doing that this week, he will undoubtedly be in contention come Sunday evening. I shall have 2 points e/w at 80/1.
American Cameron Champ burst onto the scene at the end of last year with some highly impressive performances, a run that continued into the Hawaiin swing of the PGA Tour back in January, but which has dried up more recently. Champ is incredibly long; matching the likes of market leaders Koepka and Finau for distance, but more recently struggling to put all aspects of his game together in order to mount any serious challenges.
Last week saw a marked improvement for Champ over the first two rounds. Going into the weekend he was inside the top 10 and looking well placed to challenge, however he fell away and ultimately had to settle for a tie for 48th place. Whilst that outcome does cast legitimate doubts on his ability to contend, we have to understand that this is very much written into his price, and that at 100/1 on an open, flat track, it is worth giving him a chance to pick up the form from his opening 2 rounds last week and put together a serious challenge in Minnesota. 1 point e/w at 100/1.
The final selection this week goes to 25 year old American Wyndham Clark. Clark contended early in the season at the Honda Classic on an open, water laden course very similar to Twin Cities, and in recent weeks has recaptured that form with back to back top 20s. The course could not be any more suited to the Colorado University graduate who hits the ball long, straight, and who will have plenty of support just around the corner from his hometown of Denver. On a different week, Clark could have landed headline status given the shape of his game, but I am equally happy to back with 2 points e/w at 100/1.
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